I wonder how, or if, these metrics will be affected by their recent change of free business accounts; It's a gamble for Google, as it may take a few years for numbers to de-stabilize.
I'm not too familiar with other media companies so I don't know what the correct multiple should be, but here's my math on Google:
1. Over the past 13 years world GDP per capita has grown about 3% per year. So it's reasonable to think that the people who are currently connected to the internet will on average be 30% richer in 10 years
2. The average amount of time that people spend on the internet could grow 20% in 10 years
3. The amount of advertising Google can show per hour might be 20% higher in 10 years
4. Google might improve its ad algorithm 10% per year - ie. 160% over 10 years.
5. Having more personal data might improve Google's ad algorithm by a further 10% over 10 years
6. Most extra people connected to the internet over the next 10 years will be much poorer than existing users, so let's say that this growth only contributes 10% to revenue over 10 years
But there is also the chance of significant regulation and other risk factors so let's cut that revenue growth estimate in half to 3.
Google won't need 3 times the number of engineers or data centers to service that growth, so Google might be reasonably expected to quadruple its profit in 10 years.
The market has grown, I wouldn't be surprised if their amount of users has stayed similar for quite a few years now. Google pays per user, not per percent of market share.
Yea but the question is impossible to answer. Google would have had to balance many differ factors, both of which would have changed as they grew larger.
If you're taking, say, the Google of 2014 as a reference point, they appear to have had a relatively small fraction of their current headcount at the time.
Everything grows exponentially, but I could bet that the web had grown about 3X (between 2012 and 2019) given the first result I clicked given by Google.
Also given the fact that I worked for an SEO company I can definitely tell you that’s bot the money-making enterprise anymore since it mostly consisted of opportunists who happened to know about internet before anyone else before.
But the problem is that Google controls traffic to that extent. Almost any website if asked honestly will say that at least 60% and more likely 80% or more of their traffic comes from Google.
Are you measuring utility to people who were searching or watching YouTube in 2013 and 2023?
Or measuring the utility to advertisers on Google’s platforms in 2023 and projected into 2033, many of whom weren’t using Google ads in 2013.
Google didn’t give me individually a ton more utility (arguably less in search), but I think it did give their actual customers (advertisers) a ton more utility in aggregate.
Fair enough, the previous quarter they just said this : "Search advertising revenue grew 47% driven by an increase in revenue per search and volume."
Google's CPC in their third quarter 2013 was down 4%. If the ratio holds then a 34% increase in revenue would translate into a 2.9% decrease in CPC. Of course that assumes they are trading traffic 1:1. Hence my curiosity. Google will announce in a couple of weeks and we'll get to see.
Thanks for pointing out my mistakes. I forgot about Google's share of the CPC. Duh. I was also misreading Google's traffic estimator. That exact phrase, "personal development" only receives 14,800 searches per month. Big difference.
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