You could argue that the rise of Trump is not really anything new; Italy has had Berlusconi in politics since the early 90ies, and there are a lot of similarities:
A couple of comments. Firstly, I strongly advise you to look at the repeated rise and decline of Silvio Berlusconi. I think Trump's awfully similar to Mr. Berlusconi in many ways, including some of the circumstances that caused Italians to elect him. Italian machismo has a different face than American machismo, but it's kind of the same. Mr. Berlusconi was not politically correct. The net result was a pretty poor PM... beyond scandals and giggle-worthy headlines, there really wasn't much policy advancement, unless it empowered Berlusconi's personal fortunes. He also was a leader that was not respected by the EU in any way, not a terribly good deal in this global world. The economy ended up stalled (Berlusconi fixed none of Italy's business structural problems)
Mr. Berlusconi was also anti-immigrant, similar to Trump (actually not quite as coarse, but no matter). It didn't matter much one way or another, frankly. I get the impression today's Italians don't look quite that fondly on that era.
I get that some of the above (the EU / global part) is part of the reason for things like Berlusconi, Trump, Brexit, etc. I also think, ironically, that any economic impact (which in some cases is big) might disproportionately affect many who vote for such things. Talent / company "brain drains" happened under Berlusconi, and it looks like the same will happen under Brexit. Those that can are more likely to move wherever the jobs and opportunities are. Those that can't end up in a not quite so enriched country. This really isn't a solution for the globalization / technology inequality problem. It might exaggerate it for all I know.
The second: Since 9/11, only two general classifications of terrorists have actually committed mass murder in America. The first is Islamic terrorists. The second is right-wing terrorists (right-wing as in: white supremacists, anti-semitism , militia types, anti-abortion advocates). Don't get me wrong -- the far left-wing certainly is capable of violence, the clashes at the Trump rallies are deplorable, and there have been murderous radical left terrorists in the past. But these days, I consider right-wing white supremacists in particular the most "likely to commit terrorism" category next to radical Islamists. I don't know of a left wing incident recently where a church was mass-shot; white supremacists have mass-shot two churches this decade.
It, of course, is not fair to use these right-wing white supremacists as a generalization of conservatives (as it would be the other way, as you say). But Donald Trump's unashamed nativism, macho authoritarianism, and identity politics does make me worry a bit whether this will encourage more white supremacists terrorism in the future. We'll see, I guess.
For those who did not grow up like me in Berlusconi's Italy, he was an interesting character and in many ways a precursor of today's politics. When Trump came to rise, I felt many aspects were similar: both very rich entrepreneurs, arrogant personalities, a tendency to go against well established rules, personal attacks on opponents, an admiration for strongmen (Berlusconi had a clear crush on Putin), tax creativity, laws purposefully written for himself and his friends, and of course exploiting partisan news outlets. Berlusconi's career took a turn when he developed Mediaset to be a large TV company that could compete with national public TV, and still does, while offering a load of trash to the public. He was many times under investigation, sometimes convicted without ever going to jail, and many times exploiting the statute of limitations to avoid conviction by dragging the trial along for years.
His party was essentially founded upon him and his personality, and is currently one of the parties in the government coalition, with a relatively minor share, I expect voted by older people nostalgic of his era. We will not miss him -- but in hindsight we have seen even worse characters in the last 10 years.
Italy's Berlusconi won elections multiple times in 1996-2010 despite acting like a fool.
He is probably Trump's closest equivalent in any Western country over the past decades: large personal fortune, mishmash populist agenda, media obsession, self-branding as an outsider who dares speak the truth... And Berlusconi's legacy is not much to celebrate. Italy is objectively worse off compared to its peers than it was 20 years ago. Winning elections doesn't mean anything on its own, but Trump is still in campaigning mode.
Agree. '90s Italy was in a state of turmoil: the economy was tanking, public finances were in disarray, the Balkans were exploding producing waves of refugees, old political parties were dying... in the newly-empty ideological landscape, Berlusconi saw an opening and took it. Rivers of ink were spent analysing that phenomenon, under the fear that we were witnessing a new Mussolini. In the end he never went full-fascist, his movement self-deflated under the weight of its own contradictions, and he buried his head in sexual escapades.
The experience of living my formative years under Berlusconi makes me optimistic on Trump. "The Donald" does not control the media landscape to the degree that Berlusconi did (or could have done); his conflicts of interest are minor; his platform is much more confusing and badly put together; and even most of his own footsoldiers don't take him too seriously, which is why he had to get a fundie for VP. Silvio was in a much better position, with more fanatical followers and widespread support from the establishment, and stil achieved very little, because the country stubbornly refused to bow to his demands. I expect Americans will similarly drag their feet. You can't dig a moat if people won't pick up their shovels.
I am Italian and I dislike Berlusconi. That said it must be recognized that all of Italy's issues were already there before him. We can't really say that Italy has worsened with him but we can surely say that it hasn't got any better. There were a lot of expectations in 1994 that he was going to change Italy and bring the liberal revolution it sorely needs. Alas, none of them were met.
Italy was the lab for modern populism in politics for 20-30 years. The nation is suffering from corrupt politicians like Berlusconi having tight bonds with the mafia.
Don't put this on "the people" who can barely do much if the whole system is undermined by their leadership for decades.
I have this vaguely whimsical conjecture (that fills me of shame, I’m myself Italian) that Italy is a country of “forerunners”. If you look back, many of the behaviors and characters that animated our tormented history have become models for followers in other countries: the Roman Empire, Mussolini, Berlusconi…
You might be right. However, see this: Italy has voted Berlusconi for 20 years and now has another despotic leader who might stay another 20 who speaks poor English and has very bad understanding of economics. Meanwhile, no real policy change has been done in ages. The last try to reduce pension spending cutting the highest pensions has been rejected as not constitutional, but I digress. How is Italy going to get out of the hole it has been digging for 30 years? I just don't see it, but I may be wrong, I hope so at least.
I know the inexorable pull of Godwins Law, but this is a reasonable fear - Trump is standing at the top of a slippery slope, Berlusconi is further down the same slope, and the history of the 20th C shows where the slope goes.
Putting up warning signs, even contentious ones, at the top of the slope is reasonable.
(I read the same article and it is worth noting that a decade ago, every Italian I spoke to began conversations with "I am sorry about Berlusconi ...")
I am not advocating ignoring all discussion of issues raised by Trump or (trumping?!) all his issues with the Nazi card, but it is a part of his background and appeal and should be calmly assessed along with other issues of protectionism, labor rights and more.
https://medium.com/conversations-with-tyler/watch-a-conversa...
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