Space-X has plenty of competition. After all NASA doesn't make it's rockets itself - Boeing, Lokheed-Martin, Orbital Sciences, etc do. The difference is the funding model, but there's nothing to stop these other companies adapting to the competition Space-X is providing.
The risk of wishing for a competitor is that one will turn up that doesn't compete on innovation and efficiency, but competes on some other axis such as financial or political muscle. That might provide benefits in the short term, but long term it would be terrible if Space-X were pushed aside that way.
I'm curious how space x and their re-usable rockets impacts this arms race (not to mention blue origin, rocket labs, etc.). Seems like a huge advantage.
It is incredible how fast SpaceX became the leading contender in what looked like an impossibly entrenched industry just a few years ago. Hopefully, Blue Origin and some of the other private launch companies can have similar success.
There's nothing stopping others from doing the same thing, and indeed others are planning to. SpaceX is leading the pack, but eventually there will be competition.
Blah,blah,blah, Space X has been the only company that's been able to advance space technology as a private company in the last 20 yrs. All other companies have just rehashed what was previously developed.
NASA and the US government will be foolish to let it disappear via bankruptcy. If the company gets in real trouble, we will suddenly see that NASA will award it a long-term contract for its services that will get it out of trouble. Right now Space X is the best space option that the government has available. As long as it can deliver Space X will continue to exist.
There's no way Space X will disappear due to bankruptcy any time soon.
Musk started a competition. Before Space X we would not have see this type of statement from Boeing. I hope other companies get on board. LET THE RACE BEGIN! Yea!! Love it.
I don't see anyone catching up to SpaceX anytime soon. There are several possibilities on the horizon to catch up to Falcon 9, if Starship gets delayed for a number of years for example, but that seems unlikely. Competitors can continue to hang on via just the threat of SpaceX taking over the entire launch industry though but they'll basically stay minority players. That is until the cost advantages of SpaceX become too great and companies become large via using SpaceX to push their own business models.
* Achieved dominance in the commercial launch market, arguably with an even more substantial technology lead.
* Performed the first landing and reuse of an orbital rocket booster.
* Developed a heavy-lift version of that rocket that has the largest payload to LEO out of any currently operational launch vehicle. Also with reusable boosters.
* Delivered a new human spaceflight system to NASA, the first such system since the Shuttle ~4 decades ago despite decades of promises and plans to the contrary. Starliner, the incumbents' entry for the commercial crew program, has not yet flown and is not expected to until later this year at the earliest.
* Developed the first full flow staged combustion cycle engine to leave the ground under its own power.
It seems really questionable to bet against them at this point, and minimizing their accomplishments to date is really, really silly. Not sure why you have to involve the rover in your comparison, though—it's also a monumental achievement, but it's barely comparable to the domains SpaceX is working in with their launch vehicles.
what an incredible addition Space X is the USA space programme. NASA was locked into a single main supplier (Boeing) prior to Elon Musk deciding to simply get involved. He's changed the payload economics with reusable rocketry and re-injected competition into what was a moribund monopoly. It's not easy to eulogise Musk these days but when the history of space flight is written, his contribution will be worth more than a chapter
With all their partnerships and contracts, SpaceX is now a viable alternative in the industry. Clearly they can compete on price. What remains to be determined however is if they can compete on mission success and reliability. You can bet their competitors are playing the fear card to their customers.
The closest competitor is Peter Beck's Rocket Lab. That's why SpaceX is using their monopoly position to attack them.[0] As I said in a different post, Beck is a combo of Musk and Tom Mueller.[1] The "only" things that Rocket Lab is missing is first-mover advantage, and billions of investment.
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