Last accident, Falcon Heavy had a big delay. Apparently SpaceX pulled engineering resources off of FH to work on F9. Given that the 2018 launch window is narrow, it's quite likely that Red Dragon won't launch until the 2020 launch window.
p.s. are you involved with Metaculus in some way? All of your recent postings appear to mention metaculus.com.
Given SpaceX's inability to estimate time frames (the F9 Heavy is, what, four years late?), I would be shocked if this happened at all, let alone before 2030.
They already said they won't rush anything because that's just as dangerous as using the Soyuz again before figuring out the reason for the failure. That said this does open up a visiting vehicle slot that Dragon could use for their unmanned test flight. That'd only push it up about a month though compared to their current estimate and would require SpaceX to be ready to launch earlier than planned.
Not a big surprise -- Falcon Heavy's development has been delayed several times now by Falcon 9 launch problems. Arianespace doesn't have very much room on their manifest after this.
SpaceX can’t possibly build an orbital rocket, they don’t have the experience.
The Falcon 9 won’t work, too many engines.
You can’t land boosters once they’ve reached hypersonic speeds, 100-1 shot.
Sure 9 engines can work, but not 27, look at the N1!
Musk always over promises.
That last one may be true. The pad they need to launch the Falcon Heavy still needs to be repaired after last explosion. Might not be ready till early 2018.
It is interesting that it was 2 months.. then after landing a few, it's now 6 months. Makes you wonder how much damage the rocket is sustaining during launch/recovery.
While that it is true it hides what is going on. Falcon Heavy was delayed because they managed to massively improve F9 and many of the Falcon Heavy contracts are actually now flown on the F9. The last couple flights that did not land were all FH contracts.
So the Falcon Heavy we are gone get now is way, way more powerful and all 3 boosters will land and be reusable. The side boosters are actually reused F9 boosters.
This is easily blamed on the shutdown, but it isn't that simple: Falcon Heavy static fire has been postponed numerous times. On Tuesday (Jan 16th), it was cancelled once again, but with no new target test date. That indicates that SpaceX is still working on the rocket/pad.
I didn't find information on when they'd be ready again, but blaming a delay on Falcon Heavy's static fire test on the Government Shutdown is only half the truth.
Minor nit: the Falcon Heavy demo flight (with upper stage recovery attempt) is set for late THIS year, it's just that Musk puts the odds of successful upper stage recovery fairly low: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/847882289581359104
Musk is notorious for doubling down on bets when the first bet seems like it most likely will succeed. I would bet you we'll see upper stage recovery within 1 or 2 years, with reuse of that stage within 2 to 4 years. (Particularly if SpaceX doesn't suffer another major failure within the next 2 years... Failures are always a significant possibility in this business given enough launches.) That counts as pretty darned soon.
The general consensus from arm chair rocket scientists is that the expendable version of the F9 will eventually be phased out completely. The one place it may remain is for customers who want a brand new rocket and also have an unrecoverable mission profile.
As long as the Falcon Heavy is reliable, and the three cores are reliably recovered, it makes sense to replace an F9 expendable launch with a heavy launch. That won't happen immediately, but if the progress goes along a similar trajectory as the F9 did it probably won't take too long before every F9 core is recovered.
Worth noting as well - the Falcon Heavy is never referred to as F9, but rather as F27, as the number refers to the number of engines on the main stage.
It has literally been built and tested. The hardware is ready and just waiting for the launch pads.
The major reason why Falcon Heavy was delayed for so long is that they were able to make major improvements on the F9. It would not have made much sense to work on a more complicated rocket when there was so much potential in F9.
Falcon Heavy was developed for a pittance compared to the SLS. Even if its delayed another 3 years the SLS would not make a lick of sense.
I think the lag in certification partly came from NASA's risk assessment of some of SpaceX's plans. NASA increased focus on the risk of micormeteorite damage to the Dragon capsule while it is docked to the ISS, which has required additional shielding. Also NASA wants to see multiple Dragon flights with identical booster hardware before certifying the platform, and so far SpaceX has been iterating on Falcon a lot. Falcon 9 Block 5 is supposed to be the final iteration, so Dragon V2 certification has also been blocked on that.
Yup. By the time SLS gets its Block 0 flying, around 2020, SpaceX will have had around 100 launches with two vehicle types (F9 and F9H), and maybe be certified for humans in Dragon.
p.s. are you involved with Metaculus in some way? All of your recent postings appear to mention metaculus.com.
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