I believe to be stable Bitcoin market cap should go much higher than it is now. It needs to be at the point where it's hard for someone even with a lot of money to manipulate it. It should be at the level where governments are afraid to seriously tamper with it because it can cause global recession.
My long term bet is that it will get there at some point. It might be in 5 years, 10 years or more, but we will get there. We are in a bubble now, but that's just market/human nature and I don't see any way to avoid it. This bubble will pop. There might be more bubbles to come, but what doesn't kill it makes it stronger.
I think for bitcoin to have a shot at fulfilling its stated goals it needs to mostly settle. Just stop outperforming every other asset*. It should happen in a few 4-year boom-bust cycles. Every new cycle is shallower than the previous one.
Until it settles, being most attractive speculative asset overshadows any other functionality it has.
[*] Every other boring asset that people usually invest in for more than 4years.
Bitcoin could be stable. I think it will have a hard time being stable because of the deflationary pressures, but it could theoretically be a stable currency someday when there's a significant economy of people using Bitcoins.
I thought about buying a coin recently, but then I realized, I don't think Bitcoin will ever be successful as an online currency. The process of buying into Bitcoin, and getting money out of Bitcoin is a complete disaster in my book. Everyone is looking at Bitcoin as an investment, and the only people putting in the effort to join are those aiming for financial gain.
My prediction is the price is going to rise, faster and faster in the coming weeks. The hype is still building, people are seeing these 20% gains overnight, and thinking they're going to get rich. It feels like a pyramid scheme, where the people already owning coins are going out and recruiting others to buy into Bitcoin, to raise the value of their own wallet.
Now, time for a wild guess. I say it peaks at 900-1,000 two to three weeks from now, then starts to level off. People get worried not seeing gains, and decide to start cashing out in time for the holidays. By the new year, under 300.
If I had a coin, I'd hold it until the end. As others have said, I think it's going big, or going to zero in the coming years.
Bitcoin isn't a great form of money right now, but that doesn't mean it can't be in the future.
I predict a lot more of these bubbles, but over the long term, unless it's displaced by a better system (which is certainly possible) or regulated out of existence, the trend will be upwards and greater stability.
By the time the volatility is gone so is the opportunity. Bitcoin would need to expand its userbase massively to be stable. Stability can't happen unless the price goes up massively.
If Bitcoin is not inherently stable why do you think it will become stable in the future? Do you believe it is subject to manipulation by parties other than central bankers? I don't understand this line of thinking but I am not an expert so I am curious to hear your perspective.
Sooner or later bitcoin must stabilize. Either because it goes to zero or because it starts tracking inflation with volatility way down. That's when we will know.
I predict the price will continue to rise on average for the next 1-5 years, although it might start slowing. At some point between 10 and 25 years, Bitcoin will experience a major crash. Whether it stabilizes into some sort of useful medium of exchange alongside competing cryptocurrencies is hard to predict. It might survive in a limited role or a limited market, the value of which is very hard to imagine at this point.
It's difficult to say how much can this rise indefinitely. The higher the rise, if the bitcoin bubble does collapse, expect a even bigger fall when speculators start dumping their bitcoins on the market.
I think Bitcoin has huge potential right now, even after its recent run up. It could easily 4x to 6x from here, before the next halving. It could also drop by half, but at least the rewards are asymmetric with the risks.
But even though I'm optimistic about Bitcoin, I don't see it as crash-proof except in one crash scenario. It's mostly a speculative risk-on asset that loses value in crisis scenarios. We saw that in the covid crash in March last year as Bitcoin prices tumbled along with other markets.
The one crash scenario where Bitcoin doesn't crash is if Bitcoin is the thing that triggers a crisis of confidence in fiat assets. That's the hyperbitcoinization scenario that still looks improbable, but easier to imagine now than it was a couple years ago.
Bitcoin will only be unstable as long as there is disagreement about the economics of it. Once we get reasonably close to consensus about that, price will stabilize to where the consensus model says it should be.
I suspect that won't happen until some time after the current crop of incoming economics PhDs are tenured.
Bitcoin is a huge bubble, being driven up by speculation and some rather dodgy stablecoins. It's hard to say how long it will be able to sustain it's price, but if that bubble pops it could bring down the entire economy.
But as the amount of people hoarding it goes up, the value of bitcoin will eventually drop. You can't have a market that climbs indefinitely on the basis of speculation alone.
My long term bet is that it will get there at some point. It might be in 5 years, 10 years or more, but we will get there. We are in a bubble now, but that's just market/human nature and I don't see any way to avoid it. This bubble will pop. There might be more bubbles to come, but what doesn't kill it makes it stronger.
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