At the same time as China has been increasing it's grip on Hong Kong, it has also been liberalizing China (especially economic rights).
What are the chances that in 30 years (2047, the 50 year mark), China will have significant civil liberties and democracy? I have no idea, but I'd like to think it's at least kind of likely.
I actually think that everybody has had unrealistic expectations about the speed of democratization in China. That doesn't mean that it won't yet happen.
If you look at the recent US-led debacles in Iraq and Afghanistan, or even the results of all the Arab Spring protests, I think it's fairly obvious that you can't just take a people with no background and hard-fought experience in governing themselves through elections and say poof, you're good. The west tends to forget this - but you have the legacy of Greece and Rome from thousands of years in the past; The Magna Carta started to limit monarchial authority in England beginning in 1215; The French had not one but a whole series of revolutions from the late 1700's through the 1800's. And yet, in between, there were decades and centuries of backslides into fiefdoms and dictatorships and absolute monarchies; even when progress was made, it was incremental - giving political say first to landed aristocracy and clergy, then men, then women. Human progress almost never goes in a straight line, and sometimes, slow and steady and making sure you build a base of support in the general population for the change you're making can work better than monumental sudden changes the populace may not be ready for (look at the different paths, for instance, the acceptance of gay rights and abortion have taken in the US).
Also, keep in mind that China's growth has really only taken off since the mid-to-late 90's. That's less than one generation. Look at the path that comparable economies in Asia took who developed much earlier. Korea's economic miracle took off in 1960, but it was basically ruled by military dictatorships in all but name until 1987. Taiwan saw it's main burst of economic growth in the 60's and 70's, but it was also ruled as a dictatorship by the KMT since they lost the Chinese Civil War. In fact, the first opposition party was not formed until 1986, and martial law, which had been in effect since 1949, was not lifted until 1987, a year before Chiang Ching-kuo, Chiang Kai Shek's son and successor, passed away. Singapore's government all during its economic miracle was famously authoritarian.
China's the most populous countries on this planet. I just tend to think that things like this take time, that in fact, sometimes it works out a little better with a certain base level in the population at large. Also, overwhelming consensus in the foreign policy establishment always seems to be wrong - they were wrong in the 90's about the path and speed that liberalization would occur, and now that everyone concurs that it will never happen....well, I tend to think that they might be wrong there too.
This kind of thing is going to play out a lot over the next few years. It's a tough question: how to marry globalisation with the political realities. When China was very poor, it didn't really matter, or perhaps the assumption was that China would liberalise more quickly than it has. But China, while increasingly mature economically, has not developed proper civil society, human rights, freedom of expression, democracy, and so on. Let us hope they do so as quickly as possible, not least for the sake of the Chinese people themselves. And let us work to improve our example and unity too in countries where we do have these things, however imperfectly.
China has seen the days of democrats coming to power and China killed them. It has the experience in doing so. IMO when a democratic power is rising in China, China knows how to kill it swiftly. So uh, China becoming democratic is still highly unlikely, at least within 30~40 years I guess.
I am less pessimistic than you, I just think it will take more time. With the economic prosperity brought by capitalism, a large middle class is appearing in China. And I think ultimately this middle class is what will push for more democracy.
But it takes time for that middle class to form, to reach critical size, and for it to propagate through the senior ranks of the regime. It might happen in 15-20 years.
The bigger question here is what about China? We all (those of us over 35) assumed that as they industrialised, they would gradually become democratic (in the sense of elections but also of human rights and rule of law). That's clearly not the case. The CCP seem to be more firmly in place than ever...
I believe China will become more democratic within a decade.
As China becomes wealthier, sustained growth will become more challenging. The low-hanging fruit of state-directed investments like infrastructure and manufacturing will have been plucked, and the country will need private capital and human capital formation for continued growth. Private capital and human capital have a tendency to migrate to the most hospitable locations, which are modern democratic nations -- places with independent courts that respect human rights and property rights; with independent media that allow the free discussion of interests, events, ethics, and information; and with governments that are responsive and accountable to the population's interests through elections. If China is seriously committed to growth (which appears to be the case), they will necessarily become more democratic.
So why do I think the transformation will happen within a decade? Not many authoritarian nations exceed their current GDP/capita (except for oil rich nations), so the transformation will need to happen soon to maintain growth.
Not really. If anything it's the opposite. They're clamping down on Hong Kong ahead of schedule and Xi is going in a more authoritarian direction. I think China is actually demonstrating the fallacy of our idea that as a country develops it has to become a liberal democracy.
I agree that China will eventually become a democratic country, but that will even make it stronger, not weaker. China is just getting started, so they're far from collapsing.
I think the common understanding before 2000 was that as China developed, it would open up and 'have no choice' but to gradually move towards liberalization and democracy.
I'm curious why parent is down-voted, is this line of thinking completely out of wack? I thought China is definitely going to become more democratic, following similar path as Japan and Korea.
If the people of Europe had waited for the ruling class to tell us when we were ready for democracy, we would still be waiting. It's an illusion to believe that readiness for democracy is something that grows over time. Quite the contrary. Blocking it for too long increases the risk of a very violent transition. It's called revolution. The Chinese leadership should know a thing or two about that.
Interestingly, the sentiment doesn't appear only when China is discussed. There are a number of comments that boil down to "democracy has failed" or "democracy will fail in the next few years" (usually when automation is discussed).
My hunch is that it's a cornerstone of neoreactionary theory that is slowly seeping into public discourse.
"It's an illusion to believe that readiness for democracy is something that grows over time."
You're missing the point. Its not is China ready for democracy? but rather how can China transition to democracy smoothly without a total collapse of economic, political, and social institutions? ... as is so common in the historical record.
"Blocking it for too long increases the risk of a very violent transition. It's called revolution. "
Not true. Plenty of countries have transitioned from totalitarianism --> democracy slowly and smoothly. China's neighbors of S. Korea and Japan are two examples. You could argue that Taiwan applies as well.
This is the exact reason many Chinese don't think we Chinese in mainland could have democracy. I guess there are more people think that way than a decade earlier. Because middle and upper class there are really enjoying the party, and most of the rest are trying their best to rush to the party.
I believe it's not a question of chicken and egg. It's all about part of the system starts to be able to have the environment to support the iteration of new generations better prepared for that (Not sure it has to be democracy, I don't believe it's foundation for many good things, but at least some system people are more fairly treated.).
However, given rulers are fully aware of this and how the system is currently structured, there is no way to have this kind of thing even in just a tiny part of the system. The best chance is after the collapse of it, but people would suffer and there is no guarantee it would emerge, spread and prevail. And my life span is too short. So there is no real hope for this.
This is still a similar viewpoint held by the young to adult generations of China although the idea of China as a democracy is definitely warming up but its more of at a certain date, China will transition to democracy instead of the current system being replaced now.
In the meantime, my personal opinion is that China is heading for disaster somewhere along the road if they don't liberalise increasingly over time.
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