I think you underestimate how far Tesla already is:
- Northvolt doesn't have a factory for production yet. When they plan to open in 2020, Tesla is probably already constructing its second or third battery factory. Also mind the amount of batteries needed for mass-market EV.
- Tesla is said to have a significant edge in battery production cost, compared to its competitors. Given that the batteries are the most expensive part of an electric car, that's significant.
- Without checking all european car manufacturers: At least the first mass-market EV from VW is expected to hit market in 2020.
I think you underestimate how fast the car companies can set up a production, at the same time Northvolt is making europes biggest battery factory to open in 2020. I think that every european carmaker is going to have up to multiple electric cars before IAA next year. Also you need to remember that apple never really solved the production problem they outsourced it to Foxconn, and are first now taking some of the production back.
Ford believes they have the battery supply for a 600,000 EV/year run rate by late-2023 and are shooting for 2,000,000/year by 2026.
Bloomberg projects VW selling more EVs than Tesla by 2024 and they are planning to have 240GWh/yr of in-house battery production by 2030.
BYD in China is fully vertically integrated on EV production, moreso than Tesla who relies on 3rd party mining and on Panasonic for chemistries/cell production. BYD is now the largest PHEV+BEV manufacturer in the world.
Tesla might have had a head start but There has been a lot of catching up going on, and as we get closer and closer to resource constraints instead of production constraints they aren't in much better of a position than any other manufacturer.
They have just now started developing all of this, while lots of manufacturers only need to ramp up their production, see Hyundai, Kia, Renault, Tesla, which are all already selling full electric cars and just struggle with fulfilling the orders.
If those manage to scale their production (probably of batteries), VW will have a hard time.
You mean being the undisputed king of the hill in terms of online battery production manufacturing capacity in a market that right now seems to have an unlimited demand for batteries? They are building new factories as fast as they can with a head-start on everybody else and they seem to be getting really good at it.
VW is planning to be where Tesla is this year in about five years in terms of GWH per year. Tesla is moving really aggressively in terms of new production capacity, partnerships with Panasonic and others, and strategic investments in supply chains as well as expansion into other applications for batteries (e.g. supporting the grid). I'd say, it will be a while before anybody catches up in terms of volume and economics. It's going to require more than what VW is investing right now. And I think they will invest quite aggressively. This isn't their last move; just the latest one.
True there is a huge potential for growth in the battery market, the electric car market is likely to grow 10X in five to ten years. From 1% to 10% of total cars produced. If Tesla is profitable with the factory in Nevada, then they are setup to build more factories in other locations as well. Quick estimation, 10 million electric cars per year, $5000 per car in batteries, $50 billion annual sales.
Also the Tesla Model 3 at $35k (before tax incentives, etc) is barely in luxury vehicle category.
Do you have any info about VW's batteries? If they are building up MEB for the next 2-3 years, they should have some idea of what they are going to do about batteries by now right?
So far, it appears that batteries and drive train efficiency are the secret to Tesla's dominance in efficiency. VW would be a dumb competitor if it comes out in 2-3 years with a car that costs as much or more than a Tesla with only 60% of its range.... there is risk for VW as well here..
VW has a massive battery order spread between Samsung, LG and CATL, but yeah, I agree Tesla will have a solid lead on battery production for a while.
I wonder if Tesla/Panasonic will at some point start selling mass produced batteries to the traditional car manufacturers. Once EVs become mainstream, consumers will start expecting choice.
If VW wants to make 30k+ EVs per day, they would also have to figure out how to make batteries for all those cars.
Right now, Tesla's GF1 and 3 have that locked down with a significant head-start in time as well as tech. They started in 2013 because they foresaw that 500k cars per year would use up the entire world's battery production. They also acquired Maxwell tech to further stream line their cell production with denser and easier-to-manufacture cell chemistry. All of that will be big hurdles for other OEMs to overcome (and that is IF they dedicate resources to it without half-assing it for compliance purposes).
"VW is "building six battery factories in Europe alone"."
Interestingly VW's six factories by 2030 produce totally about as much (240 GWh) as Tesla's one Berlin factory, which is due to start limited battery production in 2023, starting at 100 GWh per year, later ramping up to 200-250 GWh.
Lots of models, but where will the batteries come from? Only Tesla seems to have the proper vertical integration although I've heard VW group is investing in battery factories.
That's a good thing, but just like Tesla, they have to build lots of battery factories to do it. Or their suppliers have to. This process is underway, but unless there are massive projects happening right now that I'm not aware of, their production will be lagging Tesla's by a wide margin.
My only concern with VW is whether they'll be able to produce those battery packs as fast as the cars. They're certainly ambitious, they want to make 100k the first year and the plant they're using can make 1,500 a day which sounds insane when you hear Tesla is only making 5,000 a month.
The problem everyone has is producing enough batteries. Tesla secured supply early when people thought they were crazy for wanting so much capacity. As it turns out, they need much more and they are building their own cells and factories. VW recently announced they have enough batteries to build ~1 million cars until 2023. Tesla might be hitting that as the annual production before that time. Other manufacturers are struggling to secure access to batteries and are supply limited even if they have interesting models that people want to buy (like some Honda or Hyundai models).
IMHO, most manufacturers need another five years to straighten out their supplies and then another five to scale down their legacy business. That's why you see the likes of Toyota talking about hybrids a lot because they simply can't scale up EV production right now even if they wanted to. Because they lack access to enough batteries.
Some manufacturers have wisened up. It looks like VW and GM have pretty solid plans and are expanding production as fast as they can. But they are talking about keeping up with and not overtaking Tesla. At least VWs CEO is.
Wow, what nonsense. This is a very low volume car at best. This is not Tesla competition, VW is.
There are already tons of EV companies and all the big automakers are already producing EV as well. Just in terms of pure electric vehicle you have Rivian, Lucid in the US, there is Xpeng, NIU and others in China, and those are already valued in the billions.
Tesla skeptics have been saying 'competition is coming' for literally 6 years now. I literally read that story every single year. And in those 6 years Tesla increased its global market share every single year.
Comparing Tesla and GM makes no sense what so ever, GM was toppled like 100 years, like 30 years after it has peaked in sales. Tesla on the other hand is more like a startup growing year over year by around 40%.
Based on your other comment you have some believe that some other companies might simply show up with superior batteries and massively improve on what Tesla (and others have). This will not actually happen if you understand how the battery industry works. And even if it does, it would take year and year after the first car with a new battery is produced, to reach anywhere close to real volume production. (You seem to believe they are 'ramping up production now, which is simply false no idea where you got this from).
Go look at QuantumScape manufacturing plan and even if you assume Toyota or somebody will get there twice as fast (not very likely) the numbers will not actually be enough to be mainstream. Toyota has been talking about their solid state tech for years and no car with it will come out for years.
Tesla on the other hand has a 30ish% silicon anode battery going in huge volume production this year and the amount of silicon will grow every year after tat. And the main advantage of silicon anodes is that you can put them into traditional factory, you know all those 10s of billions of factories that are being built right now (compared to 10s of millions for solid state factories). That is why Tesla and many others, including just as many startups (SILA for example) bet on silicon anodes and not solid state.
My bet is that by 2030 the majority of EV produced will not be solid state, rather traditional but with a high silicon graphite anode.
Availability of batteries will be the moat and will continue to be so for many more years. Just in terms of material sourcing alone there is a huge bottle neck.
> Where are they now?
GM still exits and still produces a huge amount of cars, like millions, including electric cars. They are building a copy of the Tesla Nevada factory (ie 35GW per year plant)
As far as I know, no other car manufacturer has the battery production capacity Tesla has, and Tesla itself is limited by its own battery production capacity. It will take them years to catch up on that front.
Even if large traditional car manufacturers switch to electric vehicles at scale, won't Tesla have quite a headstart at least when it comes to their battery production capabilities?
- Northvolt doesn't have a factory for production yet. When they plan to open in 2020, Tesla is probably already constructing its second or third battery factory. Also mind the amount of batteries needed for mass-market EV.
- Tesla is said to have a significant edge in battery production cost, compared to its competitors. Given that the batteries are the most expensive part of an electric car, that's significant.
- Without checking all european car manufacturers: At least the first mass-market EV from VW is expected to hit market in 2020.
reply