It can help. I'd argue that the US-Saudi deal [1] was in part facilitated by the US being able to offer the Saudi regime military supplies and protection. The military is arguably not the dominant factor, but that is a very debatable point. It is certainly a factor.
The diplomatic bond between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia is really something to ponder. Both nations are making bad deals to support a seemingly incoherent political policy.
Saudi Arabia's abysmal human rights record makes that kind of trade pretty embarrassing for the US. Not embarrassing enough to cut ties, but there is some tension there.
> In a series of meetings, the United States and the Saudi royal family made an agreement. The United States would offer military protection for Saudi Arabia's oil fields, and in return the Saudi's would price their oil sales exclusively in United States dollars (in other words, the Saudis were to refuse all other currencies, except the U.S. dollar, as payment for their oil exports).[54][55]
>> * In 1974, Washington and Riyadh struck a deal by which Saudi Arabia could buy US treasury bills before they were auctioned. In return, Saudi Arabia would sell its oil in dollars—not only enlarging the currency's liquidity but also using those dollars to buy US debt and products.*
> So in exchange to gaining access to US treasuries (debt) before action, they had to buy US treasuries?
I have no knowledge about this besides what's been written in this thread, but I assume that having the ability to buy before the auction means they get a good deal.
It's hard to see how the Saudis would give in to such threats directly but there must be a calculation here - can they force the Saudis to the negotiating table with this new capability or can the US supply a missile defence system capable of stopping this?
I suspect that forcing both sides to the table would be the RoW's preference?
What a time to be Trumps new incoming National Security Advisor - busy morning !
There is a another agreement long in the works that involves a defense treaty but also involves normalization with Israel and path to Palestinian state. But it will probably risk getting dragged into another conflict given the Houthis are their neighbors. Also Saudi Arabia has human rights issues. So in the end I don't know how Congress will vote on this. Would having a Palestinian state resolve all tensions in that region?
Why not both? Gives a better reason for the Saudi's to go along with the plan. They help the US political side and get paid in political good will and getting to damage the US competitors.
The USA and Saudis already had a deep relationship by the end of WW2. Faisal was even here in the Bay Area in 1943 to see the shipyards building the fleet of tankers that carried Saudi oil and won us the war.
- Iran gets access to global markets, and in time tourism (there's an incredible number of amazingly beautiful things in Iran for tourists to see, from ancient to modern ski resorts)
- Iranian oil will keep prices in the toilet, this is basically a way for the U.S. to punish Saudi Arabia for decades of support for various maleficent actors. Except it doesn't involve an invasion, a takeover, or anything else beyond economic sabotage. The Saudis have also had decades to form a more diverse economy, and for various reasons haven't managed to do it...this has kept them vulnerable to this kind of action and it helps free the the major users of Saudi oil from "vendor lock-in"
- It demonstrates that cool, calm, collected diplomacy can actually work. However, many people will forget that the U.S. and Iran have been fighting a proxy war for decades. It hasn't been a hot war, but Stuxnet, various revolutionary movements and so on have been bits of that war. This isn't just Iran throwing in the towel because the sanctions finally worked, its because all of the other major leverage points Iran could muster were defeated.
- While the sanctions by themselves failed to work, they helped create a political climate inside of Iran that favored this outcome instead of having another go at saber rattling.
- This helps provide a mildly more palatable "friend" in the region than Pakistan
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