If you take a lifetime of 20+ years for new vehicles into account, and you want to be phased out by 2050, you need to ban in 2030. Very simple. Maybe you don't need a full ban, maybe strong incentives suffice (see China). But full bans have been enacted in law in very substantial markets already.
There are alternatives to fossil fuels besides EV.
Also, fossil fuel based cars will not be banned. The goal only applies to new cars. In Norway, people on average keep their cars for 15 years or so, due to the high cost of owning a car (cars are taxed heavily here).
I'm taking about banning ICE sales of light vehicles, and yes, I do expect such sales to be near zero in Norway in about 4 years -- with or without a ban.
Personally, I don't think the ban will ever be enforced. It will create the right incentives and most car sales will be electric, but there will still be fossil fuel burning car sales.
The EU banned new fossil-fuel cars from 2035. Probably not quite soon enough to make "fossil fuels all but obsolete except in a few backwater places".
Although, I'd guess not many people in EU will be enthusiastic to a buy a fuel car in 2030. Second hand value might be low. So the ban might have a front running effect.
It's not that petrol cars will be forbidden but buying a new non zero emission car in 2025 will be financially not beneficial, according to Norwegian press.
99% of the electricity in Norway comes from hydro power plants, it's a huge exporter of gas and oil and it's rich.
That makes it easier to make such a progressive decision but congrats for setting the first deadline.
Are you thinking Norway hitting 2025 is unrealistic being only 7 years away? A video from last year states electric car sales there are already near 30% of new car sales:
It's already happening in Germany and E.U. IIRC Germany set 2030 for getting rid of all vehicles with combustion motor and E.U. set the date around 2050.
California banned new combustion vehicle sales after 2035, 2030 for the UK. Other jurisdictions are between now and 2050. The transition to EV powertrains will be mandatory to continue selling automobiles in the future (versus buying compliance credits from those building and selling EVs).
However an EV car takes the same space up as an ICE car. EV cars do not solve congestion and if you move from a policy of maximising traffic flow to maximising road capacity you very quickly realise that the fundemental problem is the private car. So the conclusion is to ban the car https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2015/dec/09/car-free-city...
I believe Copenhagen now has only 9% of people commuting by private car and 62% by bicycle.
The love affair with the SUV and Stations will have to end unless technology improves greatly. It sucks but it's the price we have to pay.
Norway's ban starts in 2025:
https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/nor...
The Netherlands in 2030:
https://electrek.co/2017/10/10/netherlands-dutch-ban-petrol-...
France a decade later in 2040:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jul/06/france-ban-...
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