I feel like, at this point, a possibly likely option is a continued bump of leave dates until the British population gets sick of the BS and forces a stay decision in like 20 years once the old racists go away - but my money is still on UK doing a no-deal brexit because they can't decide on anything else... that will probably happen during the next european recession when the EU gets sick of wasting bureaucratic effort on supporting the UK being silly... and it looks like we're 9-18 months out from the next global recession.
It's really incredible that three months after the vote, we still haven't the slightest idea what post-Brexit UK will look like. Will they go for the EEA (the least destructive option), or will they - as Theresa May threatens - sacrifice everything just to limit immigration?
Three months after the biggest decision in decades, and the subject is barely even being talked about seriously in the UK. I don't understand it.
I think you're underestimating the psychological aspect of Brexit. We Europeans feel betrayed and abandoned by the Brits. Especially since they always demanded and got special deals on everything EU-related anyway. Their arrogance will finally get to them. Plus we have access to another 27 countries so the loss will not be huge for us.
No matter when official negotiations start, trade and other collaboration will start declining immediately. I mean, why would I go on vacation to a place where I'm not welcome? Why would I do business with a country where risks are high and benefit low?
From an EU leadership perspective, in order to deter other potential exits the conditions will be harsh. After the exit UK will have to stand in the back of the line for new negotiations, lower priority than e.g. Turkey and Ukraine. Within 10 years or so things might have normalised but in the short term Britain will absolutely suffer because of this.
I do wonder if this decision doesn't have a Brexit component, the transition period will be over the end of this year, so I guess that is when the real bad stuff from Brexit will start becoming clear, if you mess up your economy the year before by lockdowns then what happens when things go really downhill?
If you don't lockdown, and other countries do, can you somehow benefit? I would say no that doesn't make sense but I somehow have the feeling that the people who currently lead the UK do not share my understanding of what is reasonable in any way whatsoever so maybe they would have a Baldrick level cunning plan in mind?
Pretty crazy to believe that the whole Brexit process could be agreed in 2 years even if there wasn't much difference in opinion on both sides. Certainly will put off any other EU country from thinking of triggering article 50.
Brexit will happen in 2 years at best. Even so, the UK would still offer work visa to skilled EU workers, there's nothing stopping them from doing that, in fact this is what they said they were going to do. Does everyone really think Brexit is some kind of apocalypse or something for the UK? They love money as much as anyone else and want to remain the finance capital of Europe because money.
I think the consensus is they will just extend instead of actually going through a 100% no-deal Brexit. Seems like a fairly safe bet given the UK can do it unilaterally and how bad it would be.
Well there seems to be a majority of MPs against no deal, theres a vote on that tomorrow. So that would mean May going back to the EU to ask for an extension. That would seem most likely to be until May, before the EU elections. I can't see that being more than a temporary date though. Any other option has to take more time than 2 ish months.
Any kind of deal is practically impossible. Anything that might be acceptable to the current government is not acceptable to the EU, and vice versa. So the only remaining options are:
a) Nothing changes, and in March 2019 the UK crashes out of the EU with no deal ("hard brexit").
b) Article 50 somehow gets revoked, and the UK remains in the EU, with a lot of distrust in the years to come.
Personally, I'm hoping for the latter but expecting the former.
I suspect that what will eventually happen with Brexit is Britain will negotiate enough free trade deals that it will remain part of the EU in all but name.
Having lived in the UK for 18 years and recently left because of Brexit I seriously hope that crazy government pulls it together and negotiates a deal with the EU.
A hard Brexit will help no one. Not the UK, not the EU, not international trade partners of the UK, and not any of the tourists from anywhere. And of all of these the UK will for obvious reasons be hardest hit. They have an opportunity to retain relevance (a deal, or pull out of Brexit all together), but they're teetering on the brink of total irellevance (nuclear abilitiy notwithstanding).
I don't keep up with British politics much so this is me just taking wild guesses from nowhere but I feel like either they'll delay the exit or they'll exit without a deal. If there is another referendum I just can't see it happening the March 29 deadline.
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