Let's not discount Apple's history of entering and quickly dominating huge established markets.
Also, Tesla already makes and sells pretty great cars. Customers are happy. The cars are incredibly safe. What do they need now that they've successfully built the parts of the business that are outside of Apple's core competencies?
Apple or any other company that wants to step in the EV market can be huge, if they focus on build quality and user experience, and by user experience I don't mean just the UX dashboard.
There is a huge room for innovation in the automotive industry, I argue that we still haven't saw the next Model T 100 years later, and the industry grew a lot.
Give the people an affordable well build, reliable, easily serviceable car, and you might outsell Toyota Corolla.
Apple started from scratch with the ipod, iphone, watch. Can they do it and with a car, I don't know they certainly have the budget, they certainly can find the talent, the only question is do they have the vision.
Apple can choose to enter the market when it's good and ready. That is, when it knows it has a very solid product that brings clear advantage. If it can't find that, keep looking or stop.
Tesla is on a death match to outrun the rest of the auto industry. It can't afford mistakes. If 3 doesn't work it's screwed. Musk pushes those people so hard they could well burn out first.
Apple has value addition in brand. I doubt Tesla will really compete with all established players outside tech bubble... That is BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Porsche... And I can't believe Tesla can find someone who really can outcompete all the current manufacturers...
I still think it's only a matter of time before Apple takes another bite at Tesla. They want into the space, and are just too far back on the technology curve. They could engage someone to build the car for them, ala what they did for Foxconn, but they are not going to deliver better technology then what Tesla already has. There is a insane amount of overlap between Tesla owners and Apple's most lucrative customers, and Tesla's owner satisfaction is through the roof. It would be pricey, but I can see Apple making a huge bet there.
Apple was an established technology company with a wallet fat enough to see the iPhone through.
Cars aren't a new product line, they're Tesla's only product line. If they fail, Tesla fails. History is littered with good ideas that didn't get off the ground the first time and then got bought for pennies on the dollar by an established player in the industry.
It would be great for Tesla's mission if a company like Apple becomes a player in this space. We definitely need more manufacturers. But just based on the incremental engineering expertise Tesla has acquired over the years in manufacturing - especially now with the diecast, the data the hundreds and thousands of Tesla cars are capturing everyday, the increasingly vertical integration of their process, a decision maker like Musk, and most importantly, Apple's history with Project Titan (which I happen to know something about), I'm not too optimistic of much happening in this direction. There is still nothing out there to indicate Apple can handle it when the rubber hits the road at 80 mph. One area where I am slightly optimistic about Apple doing something potentially significant is in the battery space, in which case, it would compete with the likes of QuantumScape, and not Tesla, per se.
Tesla has a history of build quality issues that are forgivable by early adopters but still represent significant barriers to wide-scale adoption. I think the incumbent automakers can match what Tesla’s doing before Tesla can develop the manufacturing chops to fully compete.
Remember that before iPhone launched, Apple was already a leader in handheld consumer electronics with the iPod, with a level of operational expertise that more than matched any competitor. Not to mention lots and lots and lots of cash and time to spend on solving the hard problems before they had to launch. All luxuries that Tesla lacks.
You're missing the point: where are they going to find these gains in the car industry without blowing out the price?
Because that's going to bat in the market that Mercedes, BMW and the like are already in. What is Apple going to uniquely improve via it's current core compentencies, as opposed to winding up where Tesla is: a fantastic on paper product that they can't deliver off the production line reliably, with fit and finish issues because they're a young manufacturer shaking out their production lines?
Hyundai can do these things, but they're already doing them. Where's Apple sit in there other branding which essentially makes the product a gimmick?
I look at Tesla as the next Apple. There's not much room for fast innovation in the smart phone space, but cars are outdated, and self driving / electric cars with better robotic manufacturing methods give an opportunity for new entrants to appear. It's too late for Apple though at this point to manufacture the full hardware (and also behind Waymo in self driving software).
Tesla is in Apple's position about 10-15 years ago. Apple had a solid product (a machine that ran OSX), a loyal fanbase, and great support ratings. They did eventually translate their brand value to mass-market dominance, but only through sidestepping into other markets using iPod and then iPhone.
I've long thought Apple's best play was to provide OEMs some kind of "VehicleOS" stack, enabling them to compete with Tesla. I doubt most OEMs can build the necessary stack in-house.
Then Apple sells some hardware, some software, takes a cut of some services bundles. A fresh new revenue source, without taking on the all risks of making actual cars.
I on the other hand really enjoy using my car and I would love for it to be even better. Most cars have terrible usability for most of their functionality. Terrible touch screens, sluggish performance, confusing settings, it's a mess.
However I feel like Tesla is the Apple of cars and it's not clear what value Apple would provide above and beyond Tesla.
But perhaps more competition in that space would be a good thing. Or maybe Apple has the scale to take what Tesla started and bring it to the next level. Maybe they should buy Tesla instead.
Your reasoning is excellent. The only problem is that Apple doesn't have sufficient drive, talent, or reputation, in the auto industry to actually make and sell a good car.
No employee wants to leave Tesla to work at Apple. No consumer wants to buy a car made by Apple. Hopefully Tim and the gang won't blow through too much money before they accept that.
They're pretty good at making phones and computers. They might want to focus on keeping that reputation in the meantime.
Tesla is already the Apple of cars. Designed in California. Capacitive touchscreen instead of buttons. Vertical integration. Minimalist hardware design. Focus on software. Over the air updates. Custom SoC.
When Apple did all this in phones it was unique. There was no Tesla of phones. But there is a Tesla of cars and it's tough to imagine what unique thing Apple could bring to the market.
Also, Tesla already makes and sells pretty great cars. Customers are happy. The cars are incredibly safe. What do they need now that they've successfully built the parts of the business that are outside of Apple's core competencies?
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