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Fundamentally, the question's going to be "when did this rot set in, and how many aircraft does it affect?"


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There’s a lot of inertia in commercial aviation. Airframes last for decades. At some point though, the current path will lead to ruin.

Very likely a maintenance-related issue, given the age of the plane.

At this point the planes either need to be retrofitted with their original engines or scrapped. They will remain flying deathtraps no matter how much software is piled on to patch the issue.

Hence the reason I said time will tell.

But there are also many examples of aircraft with terrible early safety records that never recovered from their bad start.


That is actually kind of scary.

How many cycles does the airframe have to go through in order for this to become a problem? I tend to think that if the FAA gave a shit about general aviation maybe we wouldn't be flying planes from the 1960s


Not trying to move the goalposts, but how old were these Airbus planes at the time of their incidents? Were they months old off the assembly line, or were they several years in where slips in maintenance and inspections came into play?

I wondered about those lately. Do you happen to know if they are really in a state to make them flightworthy again if push came to shove?

I would have expected them to have deteriorated to a point where restoring them becomes a bigger effort than building new planes.


Excellent point, shows you how much of an engineer I'm NOT. That's probably a big point too.

Surely there's some sort of chart they've made for all these parts and how fast they're allowed to decay, given some number of flight-hours?


Yeah the aircraft probably just needs improved CI and a phased migration to rust.

This is basically scaremongering at this point. The system that failed is well understood now, and the whole aircraft has been scrutinized.

But no, let's dump all these planes. Very ecological.

Let's do a complete redesign using a new parts. Because those won't have any problems.

/s


yeah i live under the flightpath of a lot of flight school traffic and this weighs a bit on my mind. pretty busy flight area too. Who knows the damage really? are there tests you can take?

It's different in that it starts to look as though there was a fairly concerted effort to keep the planes flying even though it was known to have a pretty big flaw.

When it's happening on a two month old plane it's a production problem.

We should look at the root cause, which is Boeing installing much more powerful engines on an old frame that wasn't designed for it. They haven't properly done it.

I think the issue is that the cracks start to appear only after future projections badly miss, like when finished planes get parked. Did that happen with Airbus?

This is all very old. I don't think modern top aircraft can defect so easily.

But that is highly likely to be a trailing indicator. Some things like door plug blowouts apparently happen a few months after poor manufacturing processes occur, the question is how long do loose screws, cable frictions, or incorrectly bored holes in pressure bulkheads take to manifest?

It seems to me that we’re only at the start of statistical changes to the 737’s historic accident to operating hours ratio.

Do I want to be an unexpected data point or death and injury there? Not so much. A320-series or 737NGs for me for the foreseeable future I think, and those flights don’t generally cost a penny more.


Does this make any of you fearful about getting on a plane? I mean, with all this airing of dirty laundry and scrambling I feel like mistakes are more likely now than ever, plus no new planes = we are stuck on old hardware, and when those planes do go back into service they will have been outside collecting rust.

That just shows: you never know. Perhaps something had been done to this plane too, indeed. The only thing I would exclude at this point is bad maintenance. It's so unlikely that that part needed maintenance in less than 2 months. But your example shows we really should wait for the report.

And inspect similar planes in the mean time.

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