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India's fertility rate is at the global average, has been dropping for decades, and that trend is expected to continue.


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As an aside, India's birth rate has been dropping precipitously over the last few decades. In 1960 the birth rate was 5.9 per woman; today it's 2.4 and still falling. India's birth rate is now lower than America prior to 1970. At current trends, the birth rate in India will drop below the replacement rate within a decade.

https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&...


India has a fertility rate of 2.2 which is just at replacement level.

The world's population growth is screeching to a halt almost universally, even without China-style coercion. This includes India, where the total fertility rate has fallen from >6 in the 1950s to around 2.4 today, and the steady decline is set to continue.

India has had falling birth rates for decades and it was already close to replacement rate in 2019, so a bounce back is going to have a negligible impact on demographics. https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/india-s-falling-fertilit...

India has dropped to just above replacement rate (2.2 births per women), down from just under 6 births per women in 1960

Africa fertility rate is dropping around 1.5% per year annually for the region as a whole.

Increasingly technologized populations drop fertility fast


> Unbound population growth

India's fertility rate is at or below the global average and has been falling for decades. [1]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_d...


India's birth rate has been deceasing for 30 years now.

India has a fairly low fertility rate compared to other countries of similar socio economic conditions, it is just that it has a very high population base and most of it is very young.

Also the fertility rate is varies significantly across the country.

If you think about it countries like Saudi, Pakistan and most parts of Africa have the highest fertility rates


This seems like India is following in China's footsteps.

The full tweet:

India's fertility rate has fallen below replacement level (2.1 children per women). However there is still significant variation between states.

The lowest birth rate is in Sikkim at 1.1, equivalent to Singapore, while the highest is in Bihar at 3.0, equivalent to Israel.

-

The map in the tweet has a state by state breakdown.


The average fertility rate in India is 2.2 now I think. It is below 2 in Southern states and still relatively high in BIMARU states which are the biggest problems.

India which has second largest population after China has reduced fertility of 2.1(lower than replacement rate of 2.2)

Current TFR in China is around 1.7 according to https://www.statista.com/statistics/1033738/fertility-rate-c... it _has_ been climbing very slowly recently, but I'm not sure I would characterize that as "healthy".

"Asia" is pretty broad, but India was at 2.2 in 2020 and dropping pretty rapidly; as of earlier this spring it hit 2.0. Note that the Statista numbers are moving 5-year averages, so the "spot" number for India is lower than the number you see on that graph.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1034075/fertility-rate-w... puts "Asia" as a whole at 2.15, which is indeed "healthy", but the slope is very much down.

Africa does have higher fertility, but from what I can tell the main reason is lack of access to birth control, not "community" or "big homes"...


India -> it's already in motion.

> From 1965 to 2009, contraceptive usage has more than tripled (from 13% of married women in 1970 to 48% in 2009) and the fertility rate has more than halved (from 5.7 in 1966 to 2.4 in 2012)

> India's fertility rate has greatly decreased in recent years and is now distinctly below the global rate.


China and India both have declining fertility rates as well. It seems like fertility is incompatible with economic development.

On a historical level fertility rates appear, with the exception primarily of Africa, to be dropping across the board [0]. There's a concise summary by country on present fertility rates on the World Population Review website [1]. Quite a few surprises as well.

[0] https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate

[1] http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/total-fertility-r...


World birth rate is dropping.

Births per 1000 people: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/WLD/world/birth-rate (less than half of the rate in 1950)

Fertility rate: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN (less than half the rate in 1960)


It's working everywhere. India dropped below replacement fertility a couple of years ago. The only part of the world left with above replacement growth is sub-Saharan Africa, and even the very highest, like Niger, has seen substantial drops in fertility rates.

If anything we're a few decades away from a rising panic about increasing them again.


things has changed:

"In actuality, India’s TFR is only 2.5—and falling steadily. This figure barely exceeds that of the United States. In 2011, the US fertility rate was estimated at 2.1, essentially the replacement level; a more recent study now pegs it at 1.93. Still, from a global perspective, India and the US fall in the same general fertility category

Source: http://www.geocurrents.info/population-geography/indias-plum...

also "How Electricity and TV Defused the ‘Population Bomb’" :

http://thebreakthrough.org/index.php/voices/michael-shellenb...


Birth rates in Africa are already on their slow journey to decline. At the very least they’re dropping. Maybe we can expect a similar trajectory to India that reduced its birth rate from 6 to below replacement rate of 1.9 in about 20 years.
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