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No it doesn’t, assuming the mining tech improves via FPGA and ASIC, leading to more hashes per KWh. It’s very hard to predict the future ratio between hash rates and mining rewards.


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It will if you can't mine enough to cover the cost of the electricity required to run it, which is true if you want to mine BTC with it, for example.

It depends on whether mining activity has saturated the reward by then.

(current hardware seems to still be returning more than 10x the electricity cost, based on squinting at http://minr.info/

Edit: And that is after the price drop.)


This is true, but the reward is currently far larger than the electrical consumption, so mining is currently mostly a contest to bring more hardware online.

(kicking CPUs and GPUs out of the contest probably did a lot to lower power consumption, but I wonder if the growth of the network has overshadowed that)


Not true at all. If enough hardware is available, pool only expands until reward covers electricity cost plus small margin. I.e. bitcoin mining electricity-cost bound for the long time now.

Not really, it's underpowered and mining lends itself better to vector-oriented processors (like GPUs) rather than CPUs.

Does it? that seems at odds with million dollar server farms of ASICs just mining Bitcoin all day, but I haven't logged into Xmas lighting power draw

That would depend on how much heat the computations/mining itself generates - has to be some - and the total effort to make graphics cards or other hardware for a lot of clients that would not really exist if crypto wouldn't be a thing

On a CPU it’s gonna be dollars or electricity.

The whole point of profitable mining is to build asics such that the cost of electricity gets lower than the mining rewards.


Even with the new GPU mining protections that nvidia baked in?

edit: i mean it's probably a moot point, mining at 10% efficiency is still worth money if you're tapping electricity from somewhere.


i really doubt it. in a mining rig all power spent on components other than the GPU is essentially pure overhead that cuts into the thin margin of a consumer setup. you need several discrete GPUs before it starts to be worthwhile at all.

Eventually, but at current prices existing hardware mines at well above electricity prices, so that won't happen any time soon.

Not if it's mining running on solar.

Probably none, as it has little to do with mining.

How did you arrive at that conclusion? Any amount of mining will be profitable since your electricity is free. You could dig out a used Thinkpad from the closet and even though the hashrate would be miserable, you would still be making money since your electricity cost is zero. Of course you would probably want to use more efficient hardware to mine, and that's in terms of $/kWh.

I've got a GPU mining ethereum right now at about $0.75/kWh. Even in my apartment where electricity is $0.10/kWh I'm still turning a profit.


Yeah. My estimate of the total amount invested in pre-ASIC hardware is 60 million, not counting power.

The key questions to predict ASIC mining profitability is:

- how much will be invested in ASIC hardware

- future prices of bitcoin

- how long will it take for the ASIC hardware to roll out

The only "easy-money" I see here is if you have access to ASIC mining hardware _right now_.


No, that number sounds like a marginal number to me. Someone else commented that miners pay an average of like 4 cents per kWh, which works out to about $30 of electricity costs to miners per transaction. Recent per-transaction miner fees are currently in the $10-20 range, but don't forget the winning miner gets a reward that's currently ~$330,475 per block.

No one smart enough to mine BTC is dumb enough to use GPUs for it, regardless of the price of electricity. If electricity is so cheap that there's profit to be made from GPU mining, the profit would be astronomically higher with ASIC mining.

But you're both completely missing the point that mining for coins will become exponentially more efficient over time, with new mining techniques and hardware.

But will it mine?
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