Americans generally don’t want to hear that our influence globally has been replaced by a combination of deference to autocratic regimes (the whole Russia / Turkey / Syria situation) or direct antagonism of rising powers (China, Iran).
I think Trump’s legacy will be as the symbol of American decline. He represents a hollowing out of core institutions that started long before him, but his presidency will be remembered as the time when the world realized American hegemony was over.
Paradoxically, while Trump has accomplished very little but make speeches, the damage his presidency has done to our image, and perception of how welcoming America is, will be felt for years.
It's bringing back memories of our dismal global perception around 2006-2008. (Although this wasn't for "America is unwelcoming" reasons)
I think the world more or less understands that American politics oscillates between periods of conservative control and liberal control.
I don’t think the world has forgotten about America’s massive military or its massive economy.
To say Trump has “ended America’s standing” is extremely short sighted... Whether you like him or not, he has not changed in any material way the military or the economy or the political systems that form the foundation of America.
Imagine the world in only 10 years from now. 2030. Will the American economy still be intact and humming along? Will the military still be well funded? Will the political system still be the same?
Regular Americans have very little interest in the rest of the world and derive very little ego from that global role. Americans are nearly universally mocked for that lack of interest. The notion they derive much ego from something they pay so little attention to and have so little interest in, is obviously false. Regular Americans are largely indifferent to the rest of the world.
Trump got elected in part on a platform of ending the globalist war machine and reducing the superpower footprint (and the machine has been fighting him on that every step of the way, see: Bolton's new book, where he says the craziest thing Trump did was not attack Iran). Americans overwhelmingly want that reduction. He's going to be the first President since Jimmy Carter four decades prior, to not get the US into a new war. There were only a few aspects of Trump's campaign that were widely popular, one of which was stepping back from being the world's everywhere superpower. Why would Americans want that if their ego is so tied up in it? Because it's not. The US economy is what makes it powerful (going all the way back to the Civil War era), not going around the world playing superpower. Regular Americans are focused on their own lives, making ends meet, not worrying about Libya-Egypt-Turkey-Syria-Russia.
Americans are very clearly sick of policing the world and how much it costs; they're sick of the cost of being spread around the world and involved in every conflict.
It's not like none of this was known before Trump was elected president - and yet this is what America elected anyway. Many Americans are looking to end the 'American Era' - an era where America has maintained the world order. They point to our $20 trillion debt and exclaim that leadership comes at too great a cost. It'll be interesting to see how much our standard of living is affected. To me that's the really dangerous scenario: an America suddenly realizing it's losing it's political and economic power.
It might be forgotten but I'm sure it will add to the increasingly negative view the rest of the world has of America. It seemed less negative once the Bush administration ended but things like this could restart the negative opinion.
The fatalism around America’s relative decline is so tiring to read about. Apparently the only thing that can occur is a sudden and disastrous collapse of Pax Americana, even though as shortly as 15-20 years ago America enjoyed total and complete hegemony over the rest of the world (militarily, economically, politically and culturally).
That period was a historical fluke, in my opinion. At no other time in human history has one nation been as powerful and influential as America was, and to a certain extent continues to be. To assume that its relative decline can only continue and exacerbate and end in complete and utter disaster in our lifetimes reads to me as simplistic binary thinking.
As an Australian it has been extraordinary to witness the end of the American hegemony in this particular way. The pandemic was not a black swan by any means, the American response to it was.
My American model of capability and competence turned out to be horseshit. I had a view of Americans as brash, somewhat obnoxious but generally genial, certainly industrious. The incredulous, self-centered and fundamentally deluded zeitgeist that seems to define current American society was a surprise to me. I think many people were sensing the decline of American society, certainly Americans, and MAGA perversely tapped into that.
America's decline is already affecting Australians with China signalling its disapproval of Australia's current 'republican' rhetoric with the current trade war. I suspect this year was a turning point for geopolitics and it won't favor western style democracies, not as what used to be the ultimate model of those turned out to be the way it has.
Absolutely this. This comment [1] hit me hard when I read it:
>I never understood the good effects of American hegemony until they started breaking down.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a harbinger of what a world without American hegemony looks like. In that world, you're going to have a very bad time.
trump is shaping the country towards his view of the world. A view where there are no such things as friends. Either people are there to inflate your ego while trying to get power or people are there to be used and have their power subjugated. For countries, regardless of how brash and abrasive international relations go, weaker countries will try to win favor by showing support and powerful countries (that were friends) are now being pummeled and face the decision to ride out the crassness or break ties.
you can live a life with that world view but what a hollow hollow inhuman life. and those people will desert you the moment you cease to have power.
At least since the 1960s, there has been resentment around the world regarding America's influence. I've lived in a variety of non-Western countries since the 1980s and there has always been some degree of resentment against the USA at every social level. It is so pervasive in culture that I just expect to always be dealing with it.
These people have long yearned for a shift away from American domination, and with the rise of China and Asia in general, it has begun to look like that day may come in a decade or two. Now, the events surrounding the Russo-Ukrainian War are hastening the change.
The international regime is headed toward an inflection point, at which the axis of influence will permanently shift away from the USA. The bulk of the non-Western world badly wants this to happen, and while they may be sympathetic to Ukraine, they care more about this.
Well I've read enough over the years (Philip Tetlock springs to mind) to rarely be any more confident of my own predictions in the political sphere than anyone else's. Only time will tell!
As for the spirit of friendship, and just to be clear, I believe the US's declining significance, although having some distinctly ignoble proximate causes, will ultimately be of benefit to her own citizens also. I really meant 'everyone'.
American Declinism has been a popular meme since the 50s, some day it will be true I guess [1]:
>Twenty-two years ago, in a refreshingly clear-sighted article for Foreign Affairs, Harvard’s Samuel P. Huntington noted that the theme of "America’s decline" had in fact been a constant in American culture and politics since at least the late 1950s. It had come, he wrote, in several distinct waves: in reaction to the Soviet Union’s launch of Sputnik; to the Vietnam War; to the oil shock of 1973; to Soviet aggression in the late 1970s; and to the general unease that accompanied the end of the Cold War. Since Huntington wrote, we can add at least two more waves: in reaction to 9/11, and to the current "Great Recession."….
>What the long history of American "declinism" — as opposed to America’s actual possible decline — suggests is that these anxieties have an existence of their own that is quite distinct from the actual geopolitical position of our country; that they arise as much from something deeply rooted in the collective psyche of our chattering classes as from sober political and economic analyses.
>For whatever reason, it is clear that for more than half a century, many of America’s leading commentators have had a powerful impulse consistently to see the United States as a weak, "bred out" basket case that will fall to stronger rivals as inevitably as Rome fell to the barbarians, or France to Henry V at Agincourt.
I've always been critical of the US, especially their foreign policy but if I had to make a choice I also would prefer that they be in charge rather than either of the other two.
Or rather that would have been my answer before trump came along and the country entered into a state of hyperpolarization.
How would I now wish for times like the G.W. Bush era where one would rightly get upset about things like the Iraqi war, US policing the world etc. As Europeans we were rarely a target of these things. The stakes were ultimately low for us.
But now it's not clear anymore what will become of that country. And if the US ends up collapsing under its own weight, then I don't think we're headed for a bright future. And the stakes have never been higher.
I think Trump’s legacy will be as the symbol of American decline. He represents a hollowing out of core institutions that started long before him, but his presidency will be remembered as the time when the world realized American hegemony was over.
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