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It's a messy breakup and both sides will be worse off. But these are both huge and advanced economies. Substitutes will be found or built.


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Often economies run on star cities, and if your country's economy is disconnected from those star cities because of a breakup, your country's economy will also suffer.

There was also the entire communist central planning thing that made resources misallocated.


Great, so both are in horrible economic shape. What difference does it make?

neither country has been focused on peaceful economic growth in the last two decades.

but their sins aren't equal, either.


And previous well functioning economies get destroyed in the process

Maybe they have more room but then they have catastrophic failure scenario like USSR and unlike liberal economies.

Think Greece vs. Venezuela.


Things are breaking both in the OECD and developing world. The transition is messy but there's really little alternative.

Which leads to a destroyed economy, see Venezuela and Greece.

Despite not having studied history or economics or politics or war, surely you must see the risks of dismantling an economic system that has raised billions out of poverty without any type of replacement?

It's like a diabetic stopping their insulin in the hopes something better will come along.


Looks like both the Democrats and Republicans are fighting each other and in turn ruining the economy and the country. Already 30 trillion USD in debt and high inflation and high gas prices. Electric cars have no infrastructure yet and are expensive and not everyone can afford one, not the poor who own a $500 Toyota car from the 1980s.

China and Russia will take over the position that the USA used to have as a super power. We got a civil war 2.0 ruining our nation.


It will cripple a country and its economy.

What's the alternative? Everything stays the same? How would that help their economy?

I'm no economist, but intentionally cutting themselves out of a massive common market probably isn't helping much.

They had all the capital they needed to diversify their economy when it would have made a difference. Now it's too late and they will reap the consequences.

Even if in another hundred years there were a net plus, the interim rebalancing process doesn't occur without prolonged conflict and suffering.

Both of them are bad, restrictions on new development are even worse. It's a huge, huge mess.

Sad thing is that the defectors are clearly the short-term winners in that case.

Long term, the purchasing power of the Valley will be diminished and financial services disrupted. This might result in substantial disruption of businesses and cascades of business failures. Which may in turn affect defectors. But this seems to be the only negative feedback loop.


Kind of a United Fruit model of economic investing which resulted in the pejorative banana republic and resulting cries of American Imperialism, and subsequent loss in economic growth as AmCos pulled out due to instability.

Wonder if they can avoid a similar fate. Maybe people are wiser on both sides, one can hope.


Cutting ties with the World's largest market is a good way to force your country into a Recession.

Good move! "Hi foot, meet bullet!"


All countries are various shades of insolvent over a long enough timeline. It’s he who devalues the most last who wins.
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