You can presumably still keep your own car even if everyone else is renting one for each single trip. It won't make sense financially, but it won't be more expensive than today. It will be more clearly a leisure expense, as in, you'll know which part is your transportation cost and which part is the extra you choose to pay for keeping your junk and having the filth be your own. Who knows, it may be a fairly popular alternative. I certainly value those things, just not enough to pay thousands of dollars extra for them.
I don't believe that for one second. Would it be cheaper for me to take a taxi to work every day than drive my own car? Absolutely. Do I want to? Absolutely not. The comfort of having my own vehicle that is set to my own preference and loaded with my stuff whenever I need it trumps the cost argument. Shared vehicles are just gross.
Globally private car ownership is soaring, especially in countries such as China where public modes of transportation have long been dominant. Self driving cars will be great, I can't wait to own one, but I disagree that renting something that I use on a daily basis will be clearly cheaper than owning. Short term rents for similar quality are generally more costly than purchases or long term leases. Renting furniture and appliances is usually something poor people do in spite of it being more expensive in the long run, because as Michael Caine said, "Poor people can't afford good deals." One thing that's true is that people are getting poorer in America. Maybe that will force many of them into higher cost rentals. But I don't see the people on the waiting list for Teslas deciding that don't want one. A self driving Tesla makes it more desirable, not less. Cars are one of the major ways people express their sense of aesthetics and status. People don't have to buy Apple iPhones or Burberry clothes, but they do. The most iconic brands deliver the highest profits.
Rental cars carry costs that I don't have with my own vehicle: frequent transactions, additional liability issues, wasted mileage driven between fares, uncertain transit times, daily cleaning and inspection for damage, commercial licensing and insurance, middle men, management, marketing, accounting, additional taxes, regulations, and covenants. If I leave something important in my car, it's still there the next day. I don't have to worry about vomit in the backseat. I don't face a transaction cost and a delay (or the uncertainty of a no show) to go to work, to drive home, to hop in the car and go to the mall, or grab a bite. I can leave things in my car. I have less exposure to pathogens and pests from surfaces in revolving contact with thousands of strangers from all over the world, lower probability of exposure to cold and flu viruses, fewer vectors for bedbugs to travel into my home.
I can't see rent seekers (esp short term ones) being so far under my costs that after adding their markup, it will be particularly cheaper for me. The 5 year TCO for a Prius (staple of the ridesharing industry) according to Edmunds is a little over $18 a day at 41 miles per day, 44 cents/mile inclusive of insurance, gas, maintenance, etc. The average fare mile on the Peninsula for a cab is $3. I don't see ridesharing companies finding an order of magnitude in efficiencies and still delivering any kind meaningful profit.
Maybe private toilets will seem quaint and ostentatious, and we'll be soon freed from the tyranny of private bathrooms by happier times of public lavatories.
My wife is an asset, not a liability or an expense.
For the rest, it depends on how much you're going to use it. A boat or a plane (or an RV), you're likely to use less than you project you will at the time you're thinking of buying one, so it's easy to get suckered into buying something that you won't use enough to justify owning. But you probably know fairly accurately how much you use a car, unless you just made a significant lifestyle change.
And I suspect that most people who own cars use them much more heavily than you suspect when you say that renting should be the default.
Ownership of the car won’t be necessary. As a passenger car sits idle 95 percent of the time, there are plenty of alternative options.
Every time I see someone say "all cars will be rentals in the future" I think if all the people I know who have stuff kicking around in the trunk that they use occasionally but rarely. The automotive version of "every-day carry". Some of it's basic car maintenance stuff. Some of it's not.
And then I also think about the people I know whose passenger or back seat is a giant pile of trash because there's no easy-to-empty integrated place for trash and it all just ends up on the floor...
Also to quote this incredibly relevant point from fartaspoobutt [dead]: [1]
The car I really want is a network of fast, affordable, widely available public transit.
Having a car is useful during crucial times like for weekend trips, grocery shopping or just go out with friends. Renting or using some car sharing app everytime is a hassle.
Most car owners today could save money by owning a different car, reducing the cars in the household or using more public transport.
Owning a car is (for most) not just a necessity, it's an expression of freedom. Being reliant on a car sharing app is not ideal for everyone, esp. families.
I own a car, but I live my life as if I didn't to be honest, so I think the futurologists' claims might be actually here.
When I need a car, I rent it by the minute, $.17 for one minute, minimum fee of around $2. It's electric, it's usually filled (or if I do the filling for free I get a lot of points that I can use to get the car for a day), they're scattered all around the city and have parking paid with the municipality; they're insured and you just hop on and hop off where you need.
For when I need to make a road trip or something, I just rent out a larger truck from a rental company, and for how often I make them (a couple of times per year), it's really not such a big bang for my buck. I can get a small car for like $5 / day, or a larger one starting at $10.
So... I really don't see the benefit of owning my car at this point, it takes up real estate space, mental space, and it's outdated compared to what I usually drive.
Only if you assume that there are no alternatives to your personal car that can take care of that usecase. For example, I don't own a car despite needing to move heavy objects once or twice a year. I simply rent something, or ask a friend. That's much cheaper than owning something that I only need rarely.
Unless they're actually using it for its intended purpose it is almost certainly cheaper to own a small efficient vehicle and simply rent something else if you need it.
There is no way people would give up owning their own car outside of very dense urban centers. Everywhere else it would neither be practical nor desirable to wait for a rental car to arrive.
People also tend to store lots of personal items in their car.
I really wish there was a cost-effective way to rent some of these low-usage, but high-carbon items like cars. I really don't want to own a car. I barely use it because WFH + public transport + company shuttle handles most of my day-to-day. However, it is difficult to do some outdoor sports in the US without one (e.g. rock climbing, mountain biking, skiing). I have a Subaru in my garage on a trickle charger to keep the battery fresh only for these kinds of things.
I wish I could avoid having to insure, register, and worry about this stupid investment, not to mention the guilt from having this barely-used thing expanding my carbon footprint.
However, the math on renting a car every weekend that has all-wheel drive still just doesn't work out, not to mention the hassle of retrieving and returning it.
I don't like the "you will own nothing and be happy" way things are going, but I could definitely do that with a car if the economics wouldn't be so rapacious.
They'll likely start expensive, and mainly be viable for short-term rental services, which are mainly used by people living in cities, etc. Then, as prices drop, some people will start to own them for convenience, but I expect car ownership to drop. Maybe people will only own one car to cover the situations you described, and rent when they need more than one.
As a young person living in a city, I'm looking forward to getting rid of my car, and not having to worry about maintenance, etc. I expect it to be competitive with the cost of owning your own car.
Well for one, you don't need to own your car. You just use it. If you (or anyone you know) owns a traditional automobile, it sits unused for 90% of its life. In a driveway, on the sidewalk, in a parking lot, etc. You pay for 100% of the car, but only use 10% of it. If you could rent it out to others ('the grid') while you're not using it, they would share some of the burden, lessening yours.
They make things safer because they don't drive drunk.
Also you can take pride in things, keep them maintained and tuned to your preferences. Or the opposite. In the case of my car I don't need to take care of the cosmetics. I can load a muddy mountain bike into it and scratch it without needing to pay through the nose as I would wit a rental car.
In my case it would be cheaper to rent a car than own one as I use it relatively infrequently, but every time I rent I need to wait in the queue picking it up and dropping it off. It probably uses two or three hours of my life every time I rented.
Owning your own car will become a luxury for many people. Kinda like owning a horse.
I‘d still rent one every once in a while for road trips and camping though.
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