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There is zero proof that autonomous vehicles can be safer than human drivers.

There’s lots of proof that autonomous vehicles are technically possible, but the leap to “definitely better than humans” is a very big one and it’s really being taken on faith right now.

In contrast, treating disease directly affect the incidence of that disease.



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This didn't need to happen. It's indefensible that it did.

And there's still no proof that self-driving cars are safer than humans when confronted with novel situations, i.e., the situations most likely to result in injuries and fatalities. If anything, the evidence thus far is that self-driving cars are more dangerous than ones driving by humans.


autonomous driving needs to be safer than humans to be adopted (some say way safer).

So this argument of humans don't need it, is sort of, well yes. We're trying to do better than humans.


If you have better data, be my guest.

I'm not the one making a claim that self-driving cars are safer. The burden of proof is on whoever does.


Maybe. But the promise of autonomous cars is that they can be safer than human drivers.

And yet there is no evidence that self-driving systems are any safer than human drivers, or that they'll ever even be as safe as human drivers, let alone safer than them.

Self-driving cars are nowhere as safe as humans per mile. People touting self-driving cars like to talk about human accidents but people are remarkably safe per mile. Self-driving cars don't have that many accidents attributed to them but they haven't driven very much compared to humans.

I don't think it's easy to beat the mean human driver and to demonstrate with solid data that you've done so.

In 2019 in California, there were 1.06 deaths per 100 million vehicle miles traveled. Any self-driving automobile technology that doesn't have at least 1 billion vehicle miles of data is in no position to claim that it is safer than human drivers and less likely to kill people.

Self driving cars don't make the same kinds of mistakes as human drivers do, but they make different kinds of mistakes. Some of these can be fatal.


This argument seems so pedantic to me.

Human driving has basically capped out at its potential to improve. It may even be starting to get worse...

Automated driving, has barely begun and even if it is less safe today, it will clearly be much safer than human driving soon. And will only continue to get safer and safer as the technology improves.

Do you we need to be so micro-focused as to have an exact day/model/release where autopilot is safer than human drivers?

I for one have been hit by a drunk driver. My wife was in an accident where the other driver was ACTIVELY playing candy crush. We can all see that automated driving will make the roads a safer, better place even if that takes 20 years.


According to what source? I've not looked into it, but everything I've seen shows that self-driving cars are much safer. Likewise: Self-Driving cars are going to get safer, whereas I see no reason for humans to do so.

Right. So many arguments just start from the premise that self-driving cars must be safer and then ask why we aren't racing to replace human drivers with them. In reality the proposition that they are safer is far from proven.

> statistically safer, by a fair margin, than human drivers.

Considering other utility unlocked by autonomous cars (e.g. less stress, life-hours freed up, helping the disabled) they could even be marginally less safe than human drivers and still provide a net benefit.


Ok but what about the limitations of technology?

Yes, self-driving cars will save lives if we assume that the self-driving technology is superior to humans in every way. That's almost a tautology though.

Self-driving cars don't get bored, but they don't seem to see white tractor trailers either. Technology has different shortcomings than people do. Whether tech shortcomings result in fewer lives lost than human shortcomings remains to be seen.

It's astounding to me that HN stories about self-driving cars sit right next to stories about iPhones and anti-virus software, and tone of the comments are diametrically opposed. If you read the comments on self-driving car stories, you'd think that technology can do everything better than people. If you read the comments on stories about iPhones and anti-virus, you'd think that everything has terrible bugs, vulnerabilities, and shortcomings.


I did not get any new information out of this article. Not only does the title basically tell you everything that the article is going to talk about, but the statement is obvious. Of course an autonomous driver is safer than a human.

Here's the reality: people don't want self-driving cars. People want safer cars.

Therefore, companies that want to sell self-driving cars are pitching them as safer. The fact of the matter, though, is that it remains to be seen whether self-driving cars are in fact safer.

While a self-driving car will not suffer from some of the shortcomings of a human, like getting drunk or sleepy, it will suffer from other shortcomings that humans don't, like bugs and getting hacked.

Ultimately the one thing we can trust about fellow humans in cars is that they want to survive their trip too. This is true with very few exceptions. The scary thing about self-driving cars is that they don't care if they survive.


Wow. This is an argument.

You start with a common, but controversial hypothetical, that in the future self-driving cars may be safer than humans, and then conclude with that opposing self-driving cars today, which of course are not the hypothetical safer than humans car, is advocating for actual humans to be injured or killed.

That’s some real undergrad level bullshit.


It is shocking to me how, we (people) CONSISTENTLY fail to understand where the bar is for accepting autonomous vehicles.

They do NOT need to be perfect. They need to be BETTER than humans. That means less accidents, and by extension, less deaths and injuries as a result of automobile errors.


The comparison between all human drivers and all autonomous vehicles is far more complex than "whichever is statistically safer, as a whole". Belittling people who feel differently than you about it muddies the conversation for no reason.

Autonomous cars are already safer than human drivers. Not as featureful or accurate, but safer.

No, on average existing drivers kill more than 100 people each day [source?].

There's no proof yet that self driving cars are safer than human drivers. And more importantly there's a big difference between being safer on average than a human driver, and being safer than the average human driver.

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