This virus seems sneaky. It's seasonal and it probably does not like heat. For countries closer to the equator, it has not done much damage. It's hard to hide deaths. I think the numbers are close to reality. But the virus may surge in these countries after summer when the heat recedes.
The narrative is that the virus stays alive for up to three days on surfaces. My understanding of viruses like this would make that an extreme outlier. Do we have any conclusive data on the duration of virus viability outside of the host?
I am. My misconception was that cold viruses mutate rapidly and chances are low that it becomes dormant in an isolated group (given someone still bearing it). A common factoid/stereotype that I picked up somewhere and believed in. Thanks again for the explanation!
> People can be sick for quite some time (in this case, a month, maybe?) and then ultimately die from the disease
Usually, not from a viral infection. The usual scenario from a viral infection is that if you are not dead in 2 weeks, you will almost certainly recover.
There are exceptions, but nothing I've read about this virus leads to the conclusion that it is one of those.
Misleading title. The virus has been mutating ever since March when it was discovered everywhere. The fact that it's mutation rate is much lower than other past viruses we have seen is the key.
Edit: I found this literature review [1] that sounds similar to what you're referring to. Note that this is only a summary of previously published results on similar viruses. If you check the source data in Table I the persistence times are from hours to days, and the author's conclusion is "up to 9 days" (emphasis mine). In my opinion this is very weak evidence to say that it can survive 10 days "on most surfaces".
Crazy. I remember last year when the guy died from this thing. I live in the same area as The Fantasy Lake park where he got it, so it was pretty memorable. I wonder if this means that we are starting to see this virus more often. If we are why? Is this a result of global warming? Or is this just the availability heuristic? I hope it's just a mental bias on my part, because the alternative is terrifying.
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