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"Start of a recession"?

We've been in a recession for a while now, and a global one too. The IMF and other such organizations have been saying it for over a month now. Why has the US been trying to deny it for so long?



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"Nothing is true until it has officially been denied."

Looks very much like the US is in a recession, then.


The US is absolutely in a recession, has been so for a while, even though the official and mainstream media has been trying very hard to deny it.

> everyone is expecting a recession to start any time now

I thought we have been in a recession


we've been in a recession for a while.

however, the government will almost never say we're in a recession currently. they will acknowledge that we were in one once we're out, but if they prattle on about how the current situation is bad, it will only make it worse.

which leads to us mistrusting them anyway. its a case of damned if you do, damned if you don't.


> Are you saying it feels like a recession or that we have already had two quarters of declining GDP?

US GDP dropped 1.4% in the first quarter, so it's entirely possible that a recession has already started. If GDP declines again in the next quarter, then at that point it will (retroactively) be confirmed that there is presently a recession.


> As the recession deepens

Deepens? We're not in a recession, and we haven't been for nearly a decade.

It's true that, by historical standards, we're arguably overdue for a recession, but the word "recession" is precisely defined, and the US unambiguously does not meet the criteria for being in one.


"The media and government is in denial, so they'd tell you we aren't even in a recession yet."

There are costant headlines about layoffs. Also you said that a recession has a defintion, if that hasn't happened how is the media and government in denial?


>"AFAIK, we have been in a recession since 2008. IMO we never really got out of it."

That's complete nonsense. The National Bureau of Economic Research, the body which officially declares recessions in the US, defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."[1]

Aside from the 2020 pandemic dive, there has been positive GDP growth every year since 2008.[2]

[1] https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-an...

[2] https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/gdp-...


> The recession has already begun.

Are you saying it feels like a recession or that we have already had two quarters of declining GDP?


My limited understanding is that the start of a recession is only officially recognized in hindsight. That doesn't mean we are in one, but I don't think we can necessarily say that we're not.

You refuse to acknowledge the fact that by common definitions the US is in a recession. I believe your refusal comes from rhetoric put forward by the current administration.

> who's avoiding saying it?

No one is avoiding saying the word "recession". The current Executive Branch and Federal Reserve are both avoiding saying we are in a recession.


The US govt hasnt announced the recession have they?

Aren't recessions identified after the fact?

If I only listened to media over the past year, I would think we're already deep into a depression.


We are, a recession is usually called in retrospect after some quarters, we are definitely in the beginning of a recession.

There is no recession in the US, yet. Even though people have been pretending for more than a year that there is one.

> Signs all point to a recession in one to two years.

People have been saying this for the past 7 years.


Right. But the claim is were in a recession now not that we're right before one..

So you know that the US(?) economy is already in recession right now? While I suppose it's possible, you're saying it's confirmed, would you mind sharing what brought you to that conclusion?
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