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Since large numbers of people (bottom several deciles) are doing very poorly, it means that if mean indicators would be stable, then someone else must be doing very good; and even more so if average indicators up.


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It’s “reliable” insofar as it tells us how the “average” person is doing, and by definition the lower bound for the top half of the population.

50% of people are below average.

But somebody's on the other side of those trades.


If nearly 50% of people perform below average is that bad?

> people are _generally_ good

generally means they are average which means half of the people are even worse!


Half of people are below average

If those follow a standard bell curve, wouldn't it make sense for half the country to be below the average on those aspects?

It carries signal for being above average relative to the rest of the population, which is a low bar to begin with.

It doesn't carry much signal for being great.


It could also mean that 80% of people are better than average according to their preferred metric of good driving but that everyone has a different metric.

A few rich people on the "top end" can screw up the average, but they don't do very much to the median. If the median is higher that's pretty strong evidence that they are, as a whole, outperforming.

Because you only see the ones who are doing fine.

> half of everyone is below average

This is almost never true unless you have a sharply bimodal distribution. Assuming a normal distribution, ~34% are right around average (within half a standard deviation of the mean). That would mean about 33% are below average.


Because half the world is below average.

> Remember "average" means you're already better than half the people!

Well, no. It just means you're part of the bell curve. Which is probably around 60 to 90% of people.


“Half of the people are below average”

in any group of people, half are below average, by definition.

they might still be in the 95th quantile in the rest of the world, and be in the bottom 6% in google.


What's that line about half of all people being below average…

Half of people do better than average...

I'm sorry I don't want to turn this into a back and forth internet debate but I feel like you're very deliberately missing the point.

Averages are an abstraction. People are real. "getting better" for those people means ... actually getting better. Its that simple. You're overthinking this and trying to apply mathematical models and abstractions, which don't get me wrong, are very valuable tools. But don't lose your anchor in material reality.


Half of all people are below average...
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