Japan had a near-apocalyptic financial disaster that to this day they haven’t really recovered from. Could have seriously affected the population’s psyche and stance towards things.
Japan went through famine and social upheaval in the decades before they were forced to open up. Their economy was fundamentally broken and on the verge of collapse.
Japan's fertility rate is in the "lowest of the low", a rate from which no other society has ever recovered. You can plot it out so that it's projected there will be no Japanese left by the end of the next? century, but a gentle "will the last person please turn out the lights" scenario is extremely unlikely in such a rough neighborhood, where so many of the neighbors have serious grudges from 20th century Imperial Japan (at the time of the atomic bombings, the monthly death toll of the conquered people was in the low six figures; they killed 250K Chinese just trying to find one Doolittle crew, etc. etc. etc. etc.).
All that money invested in the Postal Savings System is, as far as I know, gone. As the article noted, it's invested in "safe" government bonds, i.e. the money has been long spent and with the current and rising worthy of a 3rd World country debt to GDP ratio it's vanishingly unlikely it'll ever be repaid. Especially if each succeeding decade continues to be "lost".
However, all that said, the Japanese have a modern history of substantial and successful (at least at some levels) remaking of their society, e.g. Sengoku (civil war) -> Bakufu (military government AKA shogunate) -> Meji Restoration sliding into Imperial Japan -> post-WWII fantastic recovery.
Although perhaps this success is mostly to be judged from the viewpoint of the ruling class, which has been been all too often fantastically inept. Japan hasn't been run for the benefit of the people as far back as I know (e.g. Sengoku), and one might observe that its terminal demographics are a reflection of the people having reached a tipping point (check out some of the comments in the article; I can say that from what I've read descent rice is beyond the budget of many if not most Japanese (they're now into the 2nd generation of thrifty mothers feeding their children bread for breakfast and noodles for lunch)).
Maybe they'll recover. But it won't happen absent something that changes the reward structure so that family creation becomes healthy.
I'm happy to bet it's not happening. Japan is far too busy fighting amongst themselves and/or catering to themselves first and foremost.
South Korea, Taiwan, and China slayed Japan because they played for keeps and pulled no punches. Japan simply does not have the correct mindset to deliberately (re)conquer and succeed.
If this sounds brutal and/or flippant, allow me to say that I'm saying this as a Japanese-American. I will happily use my blood to shit talk my heritage, because honestly it's a fucking shame and it's even more shameful that Japan can't (read: won't) dig themselves out.
Not the OP but I don't believe you are very familiar with modern Japanese history.
First, your point that they had a "miraculous track record" in the past means it's reasonable to be "hand-wavy" about the future is absurd. Are you familiar with the phrase "Past performance is no guarantee of future performance?" Would you say Germany or South Korea can implement any nationwide policy easily because they share a similar historical background as you've described?
Second, Japan's miraculous growth had a lot to do with direct US intervention and the Korean War. The US created a Supreme Command of Allied Powers program directed by MacArthur that made a wide set of economic and political reforms. [0] And the Korean War essentially made Japan the de facto supply depot for the UN, driving a lot of US investment money there. [0]
Third, Japan in the past had plenty of human capital and cheap labor. This is certainly not the case anymore. I'm not saying they're doomed, but their population pyramid is quiet different from post-WWII Japan. [1]
Japan was ruined mostly because of population problem years ago and (very) slowly recovering. I've saw a TV drama in 2016 (http://www.ntv.co.jp/english/pc/2016/04/were-millennials-got...) basically describing what the younger generation is still struggling.
That country's recovery from being the only nation ever to be nuclear-bombed, to becoming the world's second best economy, while peacefully maintaining some of the world's safest, cleanest and most orderly cities, is one of mankind's most admirable success stories.
Can you explain how Japan's recovery efforts post-disasters are insufficient, considering how speedy their recovery seems to be with zero price gouging or taking advantage of victims?
reply