It looks like Florida is two shades "better" than California in the diagram, which would put the total Florida death rate as better than California. That would be interesting because Florida did almost no lockdown.
Florida didn't lock down (EDIT: except a few weeks at the beginning), and their death numbers are middle-of-the-pack[1], just marginally worse than California, which did heavy lockdowns.
We should probably assume that, in addition to not following some practices we should have, we also did a lot that we didn't have to.
I've also been watching Florida. Schools open since August, only a brief lockdown, few mandates. Middle-of-the-pack death rate results slightly worse than California which has major mandates and lockdowns.
Florida is also a large state with a large senior population, so it can't be easily dismissed.
Death numbers ticking up slightly, but absent a major increase in deaths, it will be hard to say that Florida made a bad decision.
Note that I'm only looking at death numbers, not case numbers. I know it's a trailing indicator, but is a much better indicator of the actual results.
So do you think Florida is lying and underestimating the number of COVID deaths to greater extent than California is, or the California is exaggerating the number of COVID deaths, or maybe that there's a difference in behavior between Floridians and Californians (maybe California had stricter laws but Floridians act more responsibly in terms of disease prevention).
If you don't have such an explanation, and California, with some of the most stringent measures in the US, had similar outcomes to Florida, with a much laxer approach, I'm not sure how you come to the conclusion that California's approach was "very good".
Florida also has a lot more residents in the vulnerable 65+ age group. So all else being equal we would expect Florida to have a much higher death rate.
I don’t understand what point you’re trying to make. Florida had more than double the per capita deaths than California during the delta wave. It also has lower vaccination rates.
Florida also has a significantly older population than NY, so those figures should be age-adjusted to take into account COVIDs disparate mortality across age groups. [1] Amongst large states Florida (239) is much closer to California (216) than NY (299) after adjustments, and California had some of the most severe lockdowns, while Florida had some of the most lax.
Still, if they merely kept even with NY, and also managed to have a booming economy, a net influx of population, and very little disruption in primary school education, I’d say that’s pretty good.
The damage that has been done to a generation of disadvantaged kids in states that shut down schools for extended periods is going to have to be reckoned with for years.
A better description of Florida would be "perfectly average". In deaths per capita they are right in the middle of US states. Obviously Florida could have done better, but many other states have done far worse.
> Florida has the second highest per Capita number of old people in the country
This isn’t a great excuse for Florida’s death rate. Maine has the highest per capita elderly population in the US and the 3rd lowest COVID death rate. Sure it’s got a lower population density, however: 25% of elderly (65+) Americans live in Florida, Texas and California. California had 1/2 the death rate of Florida and 3/4 that of Texas. All warm climates, all high population density. The only difference was California’s restrictions and higher vaccination rate.
It’s hard to see how Florida’s policy was more effective, particularly with regard to protecting its elderly.
Florida's death rate is not "far higher than the rest". It's actually about 14% higher than the USA national average. Which is about what you would expect considering that age is the primary risk factor: Florida has 21% of their population over age 65 compared to only 17% for the country as a whole.
You also haven't established any causality between those decisions and the death rate.
Note that this is Florida's official death rate which we know underestimates the real rate. The governor stepped in and made all numbers go through a special department which does things like throw out any deaths from non-residents (snowbirds and visitors).
Based on excess death counts, the real number for Florida maybe 25-100% higher. See:
Florida has a higher proportion of elderly residents at higher risk. When you adjust for demographics the death rate in Florida is about average for the USA.
I was going to say yes...but on a population basis, CA has just under 2x the population of FL...and only a little bit under 2x the COVID-related fatality rate of FL (assuming fatality rates are accurate). IOW: very similar per capita death rates accounting for significant digits.
OTOH, the article makes it seem like an either/or. Many places in CA also reopened its restaurants last summer for indoor dining before closing them again, and restaurants have been open for dining for months in CA.
The big difference between the two states is the aftermath of COVID: CA's economy has recovered faster than any other states' economy, while FL is facing an impending crisis due to the complete loss of the cruise-related tourism industry (which represents more than 7% of its GDP, including both wages and spending by tourists).
How could that be?
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