Yes, several. They all seem plausible as well, which doesn't tell me anything about any of them being true or not.
1. The US mass media's race to the bottom as previous/traditional revenue models and funding mechanisms fall away
2. Rising economic hardship and income inequality causing greater widespread dissatisfaction with the status quo
3. App-based "free" social media in general where engagement time is prioritized above all else (Facebook didn't invent this)
4. The growing influence of big tech and financialization (SV and Wall Street) and the waning influence of the american worker
5. Demagogues
6. The death throes of the US political parties as they thrash about in a desperate push to try to stay relevant, resorting to simple and effective scapegoating and tribalism
I'm sure you can probably toss out a few more plausible ones, too.
Another possible illustration of this correlation is the overwhelming displacement of nuance in public discourse over the last decade (eg: absolutist clickbait headlines targeting niche internet audiences), and the growing atmosphere of desperation. It's difficult to pick a definite causal direction, as it seems that each one amplifies the other in turn--a vicious cycle.
This is almost entirely what I too hold as the best intersection of facts which explain the current scenario.
I'm spending a lot more of my time looking at community behaviors online, moderation and moderation evolution, and any papers which cover this area.
This stuff is virulent.
I think we might be headed into a dead cat bounce period in the near future - a lot of people have become aware of this now, and the idea is obviously disseminating a lot more.
(3-4 years ago, I never saw this idea summarized and shared in a single piece, vs multiple times in the last 3 months.)
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The fundamental motor, the gameplay loop which drives this is the degradation and competition in the media sector.
Competition for ads, consolidation, along with management targets would force magazines/papers to move towards language which would grab a larger audience and more attention.
And then you have the partisan right wing groups, created because they kept saying that the entire media is a liberal conspiracy.
The discussions on HN dont go deep enough to look at the antecedents of the current imbroglio.
Human brains are weak to a variety of manipulations. Media manipulations are one of the oldest, and have been going on for ever.
The 24/7 news cycle preceded the net and created the exact same issues.
Right now what we have added is mobile internet which means people can access the material all the time, and we've added algorithmic creation of inciteful content.
We've gone to the industrial complex era of outrage creation.
What social media has painfully exposed is the level of gullibility within all societies globally. And political opportunism has been utilizing this to bad ends.
“Classic Media” today, is busy pushing the narratives of whacky billionaires/corporations as a general undercurrent.
1) Work in the office is better than remote.
2) National healthcare can’t work in the US, only in every other industrialized nation.
3) wealthy people are geniuses & you should read the books they read and listen to them about everything.
4) progressives are evil, conservatives are evil.
5) Ignore the military industrial complex, keep feeding the military budget.
6) homelessness can’t be solved.
7) Support the Troops! But once they are veterans ignore them to the bureaucracy of the hellhole of veterans affairs.
8) Authoritarianism in government is alarming but there is nothing to be done.
The first three are 3 events over nearly 100 years. That's not very common.
The last one, I'd argue isn't new but the internet's ability to provide direct-from-the-source accounts of events and access to opposition sources allows the media to be fact checked in real time (or at least to notice incongruities with other stories). I'd be surprised if the situation is at all new. In fact, I'd argue that the media are the root cause of the previous three phenomenon you describe.
Pretty much. Self-fulfilling prophecy-reinforcing eyeball readership combined with a sense of not wanting to miss the Next Big Thing(TM). The rise of social media and decentralization of information broadcasting deemphasizes professional editing, journalistic filters and may lead to rumors and odd views being more often catapulted into popularity. It seems like each major social media platform needs a volunteer "army" of common-sense combined with deep-learning to moderate things that are unnecessarily hateful, harmful, conspiracy theories and such nonsense.
You'll have to forgive me but I can still remember when millions of people listened to, called into and cranked each other up on late night radio. The existence of a conspiracy touting ignor-mob-us is hardly concrete evidence of informational decline.
It is possible that social media has intensified this problem. Perhaps more cranks can crank harder together now than before or perhaps not. But "just look at all the people on Facebook" isn't material comparative evidence.
I believe the US has gotten more toxic recently, in part because more and more liars and charlatans have technology enabled bullhorns. They flood feeds with garbage content that takes sober headed folks too long to wade through. It's not all political, but this is happening on the left and the right.
In other words, no, what you claim doesn't seem axiomatic at all.
The internet is destroying existing power structures, and giving control to alternative media sources/platforms/whatever that people are starting to trust more than the 'mainstream' ones.
So all the hand wringing and fake news paranoia and what not feels like a desparate, last ditch attempt by those who did well before to try and cram the internet/social media genie back into the bottle before they're made irrelevant.
Does this potentially lead to authoritarianism and what not? Possibly, but the answer isn't to try and shut down freedom of speeech/independent media/any thought outside of an ever narrowing acceptable boundary, but to ask why these views are on the rise and deal with the real causes.
I am not as confident. At some point, the barrage of ads and media and intrusion will cross a breaking point. You already see the cracks, people are experiencing a postmodern disassociation with reality.
Echo chambers, doomscrolling, hype cycles, misinformation, AI/Photoshop fakes, state level disinformation warfare, propaganda, and good old advertising are simply overwhelming people.
The forthcoming fake flood of AI is the next possible breaking point.
I think some people are starting to reject media, and I think the drumbeat is increasing.
Yeah, this doesn’t seem totally implausible, although postulating it doesn’t mean it’s happening. More generally, there’s no doubt that we’ve vastly increased communication bandwidth and that could easily have effects. For a few years now I’ve been thinking about gatekeepers in old media as damping rods that prevented new ideas from spreading quickly. There are both positive and negative ramifications to removing those damping rods.
"Efforts to reach voters with trusted information are becoming more difficult as tech platforms lean into viral trends, instead of quality news."
The snake is eating itself. What is most dangerous about the current situation is now how easy it is to pull the natural strings of the western world order. Democracy. The ballot referendum. How you "vote" with your dollar. All of these things could always have been tightly influenced and controlled, but this was done more or less through an indirect incentive structure that favored existing large investment.
Now, anything is able to use these social media tools to run around existing capital structure and get whatever message out to voters and consumers directly. What captures the consciousness now isn't necessarily a consensus of an economies major investors, but simply whatever is able to abuse the viral phenomenon the best at the time and in the context.
Coupled with the ease of generating high quality propaganda of any shape or form through various publicly released tools, we are in for interesting times, for sure.
There is nothing new about this. Mobs, riots, and mass unrest have occurred as a result of rumors, conspiracies, and "disinformation" since the beginning of human civilization.
It was a major concern during the Constitutional Convention that:
> In Massts. it had been fully confirmed by experience that they are daily misled into the most baneful measures and opinions by the false reports circulated by designing men.
What's different is we're coming out of a time when a very small class of people had near-total functional control (or so they thought) over mainstream media, so there were huge swaths of people they really had no experience of. Now these people are @ing them on Twitter. And seeing these people out there makes them very, very uncomfortable.
The arguments you're making are not new arguments. They're the exact same arguments made by authoritarian regimes for millenia. From the article:
> In a March meeting, Laura Dehmlow, an FBI official, warned that the threat of subversive information on social media could undermine support for the U.S. government.
The problem is dissent. Much of the government is run and controlled by a class of people whose beliefs and values are becoming increasingly divorced from other segments of the population. And rather than re-adjusting their policies and goals in line with a democratic consensus, they want to stay their course and tighten control of speech and even thought in the name of social order and harmony. None of this is new at all.
200 years ago, everyone had about the same power to reach people. Oh, sure, it was easier the richer you were, but the difference was not dramatic and wealth inequality was not as dramatic a factor. Then in the 20th to early 21st centuries, broadcast television and media consolidation put a lot of one-way power into the hands of a very small set of hands. Now everyone is on the same playing field once again.
Number 3 isn't just in flux, I'd argue it got worse. Companies like Facebook trying to act as definitive platforms while trying to keep their hands clean of being sources or generators means that we have even more fragmented news sources, but significantly more centralized distribution. This means that not only does the quality and veracity of news articles decrease, but the likelihood of someone believing something from a "trusted" platform increases. It's the worst of both worlds.
1. The US mass media's race to the bottom as previous/traditional revenue models and funding mechanisms fall away
2. Rising economic hardship and income inequality causing greater widespread dissatisfaction with the status quo
3. App-based "free" social media in general where engagement time is prioritized above all else (Facebook didn't invent this)
4. The growing influence of big tech and financialization (SV and Wall Street) and the waning influence of the american worker
5. Demagogues
6. The death throes of the US political parties as they thrash about in a desperate push to try to stay relevant, resorting to simple and effective scapegoating and tribalism
I'm sure you can probably toss out a few more plausible ones, too.
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