US population is 335M, 1.02M people have died from COVID. Even if 100% of people got COVID, that would be 99.7% survival rate. But we have lots of vaccination, which huuuuugely reduced the death rate, so a far more realistic death rate would be 0.6%-1%.
And of course any of the early estimates were exactly in that range. Anybody who has been advocating lower rates are all charlatans. At least every claim I have traced.
The US’s observed CFR stands at 1.7% right now... plenty of first world countries with excellent testing are above 2%. I honestly am shocked people are still lying about all of this.
I'm shocked that it's only 63%. With the perception that this will allow a return to normal and the risk perceptions noted here https://covid19pulse.usc.edu/ I would expect it higher.
You keep on using the top of the estimate as if it was the only estimate. They said 1%-4%. I agree that is high, but I also don't think the real rate is 0.2% either as that requires the total COVID death number to be inflated. I don't think there is evidence for that. I think the real rate is probably somewhere in the in the 0.4%-0.8% range. That means the 1%-4% estimate is pretty close at the low end. And if we are going to err on one side or the other, the side that makes people more cautious during a global pandemic rather than less cautious is probably the way to go.
At the start COVID was claiming potentially 60-70%, then 5-10%, then <5%, then 1%. In all likelihood it's a sampling bias because only the very sick end up at the hospital(s) and are tested.
I don't think we should worry at all. We haven't seen any major illness spread with a fatality rate of >1% since introducing clean drinking water & having antibiotics.
Yes, that's exactly right. It can only be true if there were 400M US covid infections. There are only 330M americans. I'll put my basic math skills up against any "high quality source" with a claim this ridiculous. The IFR is just plain not 0.15%. Period. That value is simply wrong. Or the paper might be from very early in the pandemic (and... wrong). Or most likely the comment above has simply misinterpreted it, deliberately or not.
An IFR of 0.15% for covid is laughably ridiculous.
Where did we come up with 0.13%? Approximately 0.3% of everybody in NYC died of COVID-19 so that's the lower bound assuming everyone in NYC was infected (and they weren't, of course).
How can you still push lies like that? The mortality rate is nowhere near 15%. Rather within 1%. Case fatality ratio is a ratio to confirmed cases, which in a country where people have been told to stay at home if they are sick and not get tested for most of the peak of the pandemic is a massive underestimation of “people who get it”. Spreading false information like that is irresponsible.
Did you ignore the GP's first sentence? For 0.15% to be right either the death #s have to be significantly overinflated, or more than 100% of the U.S. population must have been infected with COVID.
0.5 and 0.27 are both larger #s than 0.15, so that supports the GP's point.
I think he meant that your percentage is off. COVID by itself has a 1-2% mortality, not .1%, and has a rapid infection rate. The combined direct and indirect mortality is trending much higher, perhaps double.
I listened to the podcast again and he said he conducted serology studies pre-vaccine that indicate an overall lethality of 0.2% but 0.05% for everyone who isn’t 70 years old or whatever. That’s detection of antibodies with 0.05% false positive rate and then a follow up on death early on in the pandemic.
So one might point out that I changed my number from 0.02 to 0.2 and this is true. But what’s also true is that there’s a huge difference between 4% and 0.2%. And I was right to point out that 1-4% is bullshit. I feel mad because I remember hearing the 0.2% number all the way back at the start of the pandemic but everyone shouted it down. And here we are and it was right after all…
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