I disagree to the threat on the American mainland. A Chinese assault on Taiwan would have to be an all out invasion against a standing army of 170,000[1]. Plus I count about 6 million citizens of capable fighting age, Taiwanese batteries at the ocean[2], plus the eyes-in-the-sky of Japan, Australia, America, India, and quite possibly Vietnam. To invade you would need at least a million, possibly more. If the USA etc. saw that kind of preparation and launch, all hell would break loose. China doesn't have to just worry about a street by street battle for Taiwan, while the media rains holy hell in High Definition TV. Not many will just sit by, and it won't be a quick victory, nor do I expect India and Vietnam to not take a shot or two at a Chinese frigate.
All that to say, that's a lot of money, death, destruction, and for what? China is a capitalist country now, and they really like the money flowing in. An invasion of Taiwan could disrupt the spigot and cause another Tiananmen Square.
Taiwan is one of the most important allies the US has against China. I think that a straight-up bombing/invasion of Taiwan would be met with a massive naval response from the 7th fleet (pretty much total war, short of nuclear). China is still at least a decade away from naval superiority, so I don’t see why they would tempt fate. They’ll simply continue their buildup in the South China Sea, and hope that the US in the meantime weakens or loses interest for political reasons.
Taking over Taiwan would be extremely tough. There are geographical challenges which would be tough to work out and the population would be extremely hostile. It would be impossible without a beach landing, which China doesn’t have the right equipment or training for and it’s unclear how willing the PLA would be to go along with it without a very good reason. Additionally, what’s the last war China was involved in? The short lived 1970s invasion of Vietnam? You can’t consider suppressing the tianammen protests anything similar to a land invasion of Taiwan even without the US security guarantee and potential nuclear umbrella coming into play. This scenario seems increasingly to be a non-starter for a variety of reasons.
The fact China hasn't already invaded makes this doubtful. More likely is trying to install a pro-CCP politicians and pursuing annexation politically.
The US has had a very close relationship w/ Taiwan for decades including military training and access to newer military hardware.
Also discussions about china attacking a US ship are rather silly since that would be an outright declaration of war. The amount of firepower available to the US would level mainland cities.
Too much to lose for them to make an invasion likely.
You’re making the assumption that the U.S. would just let China attack Taiwan unchallenged. There’s an enormous risk of war between China and the U.S., if China invaded Taiwan.
Do you think the American government is able to defend Taiwan right now?
With China about 100 miles from Taiwan, I don't see how anyone could get close without mass casualties. China has the shorter and more secure supply lines. They could send an invasion force using numerous small water vessels in waters they could easily defend. In the end, the losing side would just destroy all the important places in Taiwan.
There's talk that China might invade Taiwan in the near future (well, invasion or regaining control, depending on which side you're on, of course). How the US and the rest of the world would respond is unclear, but obviously there would be a lot of disruption.
Taiwan reminds me of Switzerland. Mountainous terrain with a lot of bunkers and brimming with high end military equipment. It would be really hard to have an invasion force not be noticed by Taiwan. One the shooting started what would stop the Taiwanese from simply lobbing missiles at the heavily populated South of China. I don’t think it’s worth it for China to invade. Constantly threatening it is an interesting foreign policy move against the US.
A lot of thing, China's economy and the country itself, might be numbered if they decide to invade Taiwan.
This isn't like Ukraine where there was an implicit agreement that nobody will send actual troops into Ukraine to fight its war. If Taiwan is invaded, the US will send its own troops. And if the US is involved, the EU is likely involved too. China is big but not enough to challenge the US militarily. Not yet.
It would take an absolute madman to make China go to war just for Taiwan.
I don't think the west will defend taiwan, but it won't matter. If china invades, their economy collapses, because no one will want to send cargo ships or oil tankers into a war zone, and industrial and ag production in china proper stops for the six months-1year of the conflict, and the population starves or riots. Probably the most the us will do punitively is to embargo china with a naval blockade. That's just as bad if not worse.
It's hard to imagine chinese leadership doesn't know this.
Don't be so sure. China's military appears to be somewhat hollowed out by corruption. China doesn't have the military experience it would take to invade Taiwan. Taiwan will resist being invaded.
A Chinese attempt to invade Taiwan could end catastrophically for China.
Given some warning the US could actually stop a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The US Navy has the second most powerful air force in the world just behind the US Air Force. That’s the rather insane scale we’ve invested into the current military.
Cruse missiles are a different story, China could trivially destroy TSMC’s factories. That said, the US is hardly the only nation likely to react to such an invasion.
I doubt China will actively invade Taiwan. It goes against the soft power mentality they usually prefer. More than likely, Taiwan will be compromised by Chinese companies, power and influence and its democracy corrupted from within. There's also a strong pro-China and pro-unification movement.
China won't invade Taiwan because of industrial assets.
China has time.
Only when it becomes convinced that there is no hope for peaceful reunification will it dare to invade.
And it is not clear whether they are even capable of doing so.
The last successful amphibious invasion of similar magnitude was D-Day.
Keep that hope alive and you have a more relaxed situation in a couple of generations.
China must be limited, but it must not be snubbed.
The perception of deepening relations between Taiwan and the US diminishes their hopes.
They will wait long time, but they won't allow Taiwan to be taken away by a western power.
This seems a little far fetched. China can bring overwhelming force to bear on Taiwan. Without the US being involved, it would only be a matter of time before the PRC had near total air superiority. And they also have medium range missiles.
Taiwan is serious about military defense and they are well prepared. They have been for a long time. But China simply has far greater numbers and they are very highly motivated.
This is a completely different scenario from the op, but I don't think anyone projects Taiwan lasting more than a couple of hours if China decides to invade.
Their only hope is that there would be a multinational response. The US certainly wouldn't go it alone against China on their own doorstep.
Do you think it is more likely that China will invade Taiwan (unprovoked) or US will invade China (unprovoked)? This is a bold post to assume the latter (#2). You seem to imply that US is waiting for a good opportunity to invade Mainland China. (Are you serious, or do I misunderstand? China is a recognised nuclear power. Invasion is almost literally impossible for these countries.)
All that to say, that's a lot of money, death, destruction, and for what? China is a capitalist country now, and they really like the money flowing in. An invasion of Taiwan could disrupt the spigot and cause another Tiananmen Square.
1] https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/taiwan/#mil...
2] https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/10/26/to-thwart-i...
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