Your Polish example is laughable. Poland offered $2 billion to have permanent U.S. bases in Poland but, obviously, did not welcome Russian invasion. "Christus vincit! Christus regnat! Christus imperat!"
The history of my country (Poland) tells me that military alliances are worth shit when someone decides to call the bluff. The Second World War started with France and Britain failing to fulfil their obligations when Hitler invaded Poland. Somehow I don't expect NATO troops to show up if Russian forces cross the Polish-Ukrainian border.
"Russian-Hating Dream of Brzezinski Clan Nears Fulfillment as Poland Agrees to Host Permanent U.S. Base and Turn Baltic Sea into NATO Lake" seems, uh, self-explanatory.
> 1992 Russia offered Kaliningrad to both Poland and Lithuania, but neither country was interested in a region with seriously underdeveloped economy and inhabited by Russians who wouldn’t feel either Polish or Lithuanian, nor would they speak the language.
I can't speak for Poland, but based on what my Lithuanian ex told me a significant part of the rejection might also have been that Lithuania didn't want to have to deal with a pro-Russian voting block derailing their newly won democracy
So the Soviets defended their helpless neighbors for free; the U.S. occupied Poland then demanded that Poland pay money to wealthy war-profiteering capitalists for the privilege?
It is funny that denizens on Madison Avenue think they have a corner on spin. "Caveat emptor!"
1. Germany isn't on the Eastern Front. Poland actually borders Russia (the exclave on the Baltic.)
2. The US is in the process of building a military base in Poland.
> In 2018, Poland proposed that the United States open a permanent military base within its country. The Polish government would finance around $2 Billion of the cost of hosting American forces, if the proposal was accepted by the United States. Poland has proposed either Bydgoszcz, or Torun, as potential base locations.[18] Since 1999, Poland has sought closer military ties with the United States.[19] In June 2019, both sides agreed to send 1,000 U.S. troops to Poland.[20] In September 2019, six locations were determined to host approximately 4,500 of the U.S. military in Poland, including: Poznan, Drawsko Pomorskie, Strachowice, Lask, Powidz and Lubliniec.
3. Some of those troops will be moved from Germany to Poland.
> On 24 June 2020, Trump said at a press conference with Duda that the United States plans to move some U.S. troops from Germany to Poland.[22][23] Trump said that "Poland is one of the few countries that are fulfilling their obligations under NATO — in particular, their monetary obligations — and they asked us if we would send some additional troops. ... I think [putting more US troops in Poland] sends a very strong signal to Russia."
I know, right. Historical beefs with both Germany and Russia, a history of competent intelligence organizations, a quality military, and obvious current motivations. Yet, every time I bring up Poland as an option, usually I just get ignored.
The time I do get a response, it is usually some story about how only the US has the capability, which is total BS.
Really? I was under the impression that Poland wanted the US to establish permanent bases on its territory and that they would make most of the American presence in Germany superfluous. (The Russians do not like this at all and the outcome of the current conflict may affect the PL-US cooperation. But that's not really the point here.) Maybe someone can correct me but I understood that the base in Ramstein is the only American base in Germany that is hard to replace because of a favourable position to communicate with satellites and provide nearly instantaneous communication between multiple theatres. Hard for me to say if 1'000 km east in Poland is less favourable.
By the same token, if the Ukraine had been more paranoid about Russian intentions, they might not have been invaded by Russia yet again. It’s not just the US, Poland has no interest in becoming a Russian satellite again. We can try to equivocate, but after WWII Russia took over half of Europe, and the US didn’t.
Would Russia have rebuilt Japan and let it go? The history of (East) Germany suggests an answer.
My apologies, but we can be just as easily produce a counter example where Poland took Moscow[1] and Russia having nothing that would resemble respect. If anything, the events that followed suggest quite the opposite.
<< this paradox is a street level wisdom
I disagree. If anything, it is street level wisdom that strength is the only thing Russian respects. And again, note that the same wisdom is applied to other nations when convenient for narrative purposes.
The difference is that US is actually putting their troops and equipment in Poland though. I also think that attack on Poland would trigger full out response by US.
The irony is that Poland was once the #1 or #2 power in Europe, but they were destroyed by unanimous voting. Want to raise taxes to build an army to repel foreign invasion? Everyone agrees, except that one person too far from Russia to care, and the taxes get vetoed, so Russia wins, thus Poland was destroyed. The Poles know how dangerous unanimity is.
What geopolitical motive does Russia have for a costly, and likely unsuccessful invasion of Poland? If your argument is "Because Putin is Hitler", you're not really making logical or coherent arguments.
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