Where Covid vaccination could work (remains to be seen) is if, combined with other mitigation measures, it brings the effective reproduction rate down low enough and for long enough to eradicate the virus. Problem is, the long tail can last for years, and every time the goal has been within grasp, people would see the falling numbers and assume that meant it was already over. Vaccination makes that less of a problem.
Polio and MMR vaccines aren't 99.9999% effective, either. More like 80-99%. A breakthrough is extremely unlikely because you're not likely to be exposed to those viruses at all anymore. But it took decades to reach this point.
there is a too many unknowns for anyone to be able to say its not possible to eradicate covid. whats known for sure is that ~40% vaccination rates would have not been able to eradicate either smallpox or polio...
We should be clear about the goalposts. Reducing the transmission rate to a manageable level will be very easy with even just some fraction of the population being vaccinated. What exact percentage is unclear, but it's a lot less than 100%. No realistic number of anti-vaxxers can change that.
Eradicating the virus is a whole different goal, and there could be lots of different impediments to that. After all, we still get vaccinated for a large numbers of illnesses that we haven't eradicated but are just very rare. That's not a terrible endgame for COVID.
vaccines are and always were effective, its just 90+ % of people would need to take them to kill covid once and for all. but people are dumb so its not happening
"Vaccines becoming really effective" is a far cry from eradication. There's still no reason to believe we can eradicate Covid in the foreseeable future.
I don't think the virus could ever be stopped with today's vaccines, even if everyone was vaccinated. Data from fully or almost fully vaccinated countries clearly show that this doesn't eliminate the virus. It of course helps, but we have to depart from the idea that the "zero covid" strategies work.
The smallpox and polio vaccines worked well. The corona shots have people still getting sick and transmitting live virus. That was not success even a couple years ago.
Up to now, Covid hasn't been lethal enough or common enough for 100% of people to want to be vaccinated.
It takes multiple people among one's friends and family dropping like flies to convince people in vaccine-hesitant places with ample supply (e.g. Bulgaria) to chose to get vaccinated.
Also it wouldn't hurt if vaccines were actually effective at preventing infection (rather than allowing infection but preventing severe disease)... and if they lasted more than half a year.
> Vaccination is likely an option for long term COVID-19 herd immunity.
To achieve herd immunity for measles at least 90-95% of the population need to be vaccinated. A disease like polio is less contagious, and 80-85% of the population would need to be vaccinated for herd immunity to work.
https://www.ovg.ox.ac.uk/news/herd-immunity-how-does-it-work
It suggests our immunity to SARS-CoV-2 does not last very long at all — as little as two months for some people. If this is the case, it means a potential vaccine might require regular boosters, and herd immunity might not be viable at all.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.09.20148429v...
Can't get 80% people to wear a mask, much less seasonal vaccinations.
Vaccines are most effective when they enable you to reach herd immunity which extends protection to those who cannot be vaccinated because they are immunocompromised to one degree or another. We don’t need 100%. We need something like 85% for Covid. You’re right that it will never happen because conservatives have weaponized stupidity and selfishness.
Partially effective vaccines are good enough to basically eradicate the virus if everybody gets them. No country will continue pandemic measures after a sufficient number of people are vaccinated.
Vaccination is likely an option for long term COVID-19 herd immunity. The mutation rate is shockingly low, so a nationwide focus on containment was the best option early on. It’s still possible without wrecking the economy.
The US seems to be using the worst off all possible options. However, several countries have succeeded and demonstrate it’s possible to succeed.
Even putting aside the logistical impossibility and massive political difficulties of vaccinating everyone, there's a good chance it still wouldn't be enough to eradicate the virus. If herd immunity needs say 80% of people to be immune and the vaccine only protects 50% of those vaccinated - which are probably fairly realistic figures - then the vaccine can't stop it from spreading. (Note that this is also likely higher than the herd immunity threshold from people actually catching the virus naturally, since that gives immunity to people more likely to spread it but there's no way to control who gets immunity from vaccinating everyone.)
The general suspicion amongst experts seems to be that the current wave of vaccine candidates are probably not going to be effective enough to allow ending the control measures that have been put in place.
There's cause for optimism! Basically, it'll take a big chunk of 2021 to vaccinate everyone (at best), immunity may take a while to kick in, and while vaccines may be 90ish% effective, continuing to follow transmission reduction measures will help further mitigate spread while COVID is still prevalent, so keep it up for a couple months after the bulk of people start receiving vaccines. Not amazing, but also not indefinite, and I believe this has been the messaging for quite a while now.
Even with vaccinations, this virus will be around for another 10 years. It took 185+ years to eradicate smallpox (mostly from a big WHO push in the 60s/70s). It's still not possible to eradicate Polio. Even with a massive push, it's not like a vaccine will make this go away.
We have a lot of information now about how to treat and not treat this virus. A bunch of early deaths were due to overuse of high pressure ventilators and the Governess of NY and Michigan putting sick elderly people with healthy elderly people in nursing homes without adequate isolation (most had 2 or more people per room) killed a lot of people in the first three months. We overreacted to the virus, like a social auto-immune response.
We also know the fatalities are 95% over 55. This virus has mostly reduced our life expectancy. By 5 years? 1 year? That's difficult to determine at this point. Everyone is going on about "long covid" now, but if you actually read the papers, the whole things starts to break down to a couple of case studies of 40~50 people each. There may be long term effects for heavily exposed people (health care workers) and the elderly, but the "long covid" narrative is another one if abuse and fear; not grounded in hard science and accurate risk analysis.
For things to go back to normal, the vaccine is not the solution. The solution is to stop spreading constant fear. The Great Barrington deceleration has been shunned and dismissed by all major media outlets, yet it's signed by many doctors, academics and professionals and it makes a lot of sense.
Humanity has a new virus and we need to learn to live with that. The countries who have avoided it can keep shut down, but at some point it's no longer going to be feasible to do so.
I don't think the vaccines have been a failure at all, they still prevent hospitalization and deaths from COVID quite well, and breakthroughs were predicted to be fairly common from the start. I think what has been a failure is the public messaging about the vaccines and COVID in general. That said, I do agree that we need to move on from the fear based approach to life many have held on to even after getting vaccinated.
That is very unlikely to happen, if only because vaccines do not have anywhere close to 100% success rate and many people won't be vaccinated due to health reasons alone. Plus there will be animal reservoirs.
Nothing has this kind of success rates. Vaccine, if effective, reduces risk of vulnerable groups and transmission from their caretakers. Exactly like flu vaccination.
Heck, we have failed to eradicate polio in all countries, a level 1 virus much easier to control. I predict zero chance we can eradicate a level 2 virus right now.
The vaccination has been thoroughly shown to work. The pandemic isn't over because only about 50% of Americans are fully vaccinated. We should be at herd immunity by now and moving on, but yet here we are.
Polio and MMR vaccines aren't 99.9999% effective, either. More like 80-99%. A breakthrough is extremely unlikely because you're not likely to be exposed to those viruses at all anymore. But it took decades to reach this point.
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