_If_ that happens, then there would be limited reason for further concern. However, right now, there's no reason to think that it has happened. There's some suggestion that Omicron might be less severe than Delta but the data really isn't there yet.
If having had omicron is reasonably protective against contracting delta in the short term, then this works. For now. Who knows how long any acquired immunity holds up.
Delta did pretty much eliminate prior variants in many parts of the world.
im optimistic about this as well but it hasnt been long enough to tell for sure. Theres a lag in contracting the virus and death occurring, south africa is at its case peak right now so we need to wait a couple weeks and see if deaths follow. That and we need to see if Omicron truly outcompetes other variants, in the UK they have both delta and omicron for now.
That said, I believe we would be seeing higher rate of hospitalizations if this were as dangerous as the other variants.
I would also love to see this. I fear that we're not bringing a first principles approach to Omicron. It's different enough that I don't think we can apply many findings from previous strains. Is fomite transmission still rare? Asymptomatic spread still happening?
By the same token, does infection with omicron have any impact on your likelihood to catch Delta or other variants? The inverse appears to be vanishingly small.
Even if Omicron is less serious than delta, we can't strictly consider it harmless. Nor can we rule out the possibility of a new deadlier variant created if Omicron keep spreading.
New variants have followed Omicron. And that will continue to happen. They may be more benign or less benign than what we’ve seen so far. But I keep hearing the assumption of “definitely mild”. I’m not sure the science is so definitive on that point.
Delta is extinct. Delta itself and subsequent variants absolutely confer immunity for other variants. Reinfection has mostly happened through immune escape via variants. If this disease is going anywhere, it's not likely to be back to anything like Delta, as the mutations that have taken the disease down a radically different Omicron path have produced obscenely more infectious results.
But, if it's actually true that symptoms are milder than those of Delta (which has been the indication), should we be embracing Omicron with open arms?
Just hypothesizing here - it'll take a good while until we have actual useful data.
It's pretty much pure luck that Omicron isn't more severe than Delta, and it's not clear that it's a lot less severe though that'll be clear in the data in another month. I suspect in 20 years this thing will look more like measles in that high levels of vaccination starting in childhood + rapid response on outbreaks will make it a negligible risk at a personal level. Who knows though, anyone promising certainty is probably trying to sell you something.
That will not necessarily continue to happen, at least not soon. Once you've been exposed to omicron (+ vaxed or exposed to original/delta) a new variant has to be very different from both omicron and delta. And this isn't the flu; it only has so far it can mutate.
However, it's impossible to get rid of it because it infects animals and we're not going to vaccinate them.
So far Omicron looks to be about as lethal as delta, but also more transmissible. Vaccination and boosters look to be protective against serious harm in most people.
We still don't know if the omicron variant leads to "long COVID".[1] We'll know some time in February. That has a big effect on what to do next.
Omicron-specific vaccines are in test. Moderna's should be out in Fall 2022. Pfizer claims March 2022.[2]
The next generation in vaccine technology is the US Army / Walter Reed Medical Center broad-spectrum vaccine. This should protect against all COVID and SARS variants.[3] That's in Phase I safety testing, with about 75 volunteers. If that works, the problem is solved.
That's a true statement and does not exclude that undetected cases possibly exist. To claim that CDC are going to be shown to be wrong is what feeds the "See, they tell us different things!" narrative. Of course CDC will say, if and when Omicon appears in the US, that there are detected cases.
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