governments are going to face huge problems as the world de-populates. so much infrastructure and buildings to maintain and no one to maintain / use them
General public will understand the problem when first country ceases to exist (there are multiple candidates that will completely become uninhabitable in a few decades).
Not only that, but also the massive loss of land that is currently dense urban area, and the massive loss of land in general. There will have to be huge reconfigurations of where people live and what people's livelihoods are. I am not optimistic that such changes can be managed among several billion humans without war, famine, etc.
As Peter Zeihan has pointed out [1], the burgeoning demographic collapse in much of the world may be the most exacerbating factor. Economies will/are shrink(ing) and the ability of those economies to expand infrastructure and HVAC capabilities may well be limited.
[1] The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization
I'm not convinced any of these things will be caused by demand shocks and material scarcity due to overpopulation, but rather, if at all, through coordination and resource allocation failures (politics, war, corruption).
Civlisation will survive, in one shape or the other, but some countries could be totally screwed, others badly damaged. Its possible to imagine that political system crumbles, liberal democracy is gone, and the label is somewhat justified.
We are talking about most of bangladesh underwater and about 1 billion refugees globally in a poor scenario. Todays migration problems will pale in comparison. Many if them will die violently.
Nothing we've done so far indicates to me that we can quickly organise global rollout of hundred million automated greenhouses to people that cannot posssibly pay for them. Or to build largest damns in human history.
Even when we can afford to pay for infrastructure, in UK its taking us 40 years to build 1 line of rail, connecting two biggest cities, and its going to cost roughly as mich as the moon programm did.
If the infrastructure that we have collapses there will be mass starvation. Probably more so in 1st world countries than in places where people are basically hand-to-mouth.
Literally right now there's a bunch of island nations that will probably not exist in 30 years. Many coastal cities are getting worse floods every year, having to invest billions in measures to protect themselves.
Every drought means conflict, they mean war, refugees and instability. Sure, the first world will be shielded from the worst for some time, but this isn't a Hollywood movie, the pressure will keep increasing every year exposing every flaw in the system.
Corona has shown that our world does not deal well with pressure and you can't make a vaccine for food insecurity.
Id imagine its going to be a global phenomenon, global warming, dwindling resources leading to more wars. Not sure how we can infinite growth our way out of this
A contributing cause is the sheer amount of infrastructure in North America. Since the advent of suburban settlements, the amount of infrastructure has been growing at an unprecedented rate. One day all of it will reach end-of-life. The local governments haven't maintained it. They haven't been saving up to replace it. When it becomes an emergency, all of them will turn to their national government for help.
This is partly human nature. Short-term gains overshadow the distant consequences. I am confident that in 60-100 years China will have an even larger infrastructure crisis.
That's why I moved away from major population centers and I am setting up my own private infrastructure on defensible ground. And I learned how to do my own plumbing, electrical, carpentry, food production etc. And I plan on having a lot of kids.
Care to share what problems you personally think will arise?
I'm afraid the problem will fix itself soon enough. WW3 could be around the corner according to the people behind the Doomsday Clock. Climate change will cause famine, natural disasters and mass migrations. Poverty, overpriced health care and a lack of common social structure (every man for himself) will lower the life expectancy again after decades of increase.
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