Not really. If stores aren't reporting their theft problems because police aren't doing anything about them...the theft problem remains even if the crime statistics magically don't show it. Everyone quickly realizes it is a farce and even the most left-wing SF politician stops using the statistics in their arguments.
"Broader crime statistics paint a picture of a decreasing problem, not one on the rise. National crime statistics from the FBI show shoplifting decreasing steadily every year from 2015 through 2020, the most recent data available. Larceny — the taking of property without using force or breaking in — declined 16% between 2010 and 2019, then dipped even lower in 2020, the data indicate.
"At a local level, more up-to-date statistics sharpen the image of a waning problem. Property crime in Los Angeles is up 2.6% from last year, according to LAPD numbers published Nov. 27, but down 6.6% from 2019. The category that includes shoplifting — “personal/other theft” per LAPD — is down 32% from 2019. A San Francisco Chronicle analysis of that city’s shoplifting crime data showed that the number of monthly reports had changed little in the last three years, though it also raised some major questions about the accuracy of shoplifting reporting to law enforcement. Smash-and-grab thefts are classified differently because they involve violence, trespassing and high-value hauls, and suspects have been charged with robbery, burglary or grand theft after recent incidents in L.A. and San Francisco."
Anecdotes weren't data in 2010, either. Not that any body cares then or now. But that's pseudo-intellectual nonsense. How long do you expect it to be before SFPD has an officer in riot gear with military weapons in every Walgreens, convenience store, and bodega?
The only reliable statistic across US cities now is murders, since those have to be counted. (NY Mayor de Blasio earlier this week tried to use "index counts", ie. merged murder and non-murder data, and nobody will accept that deflection.)
For non-murders, victims have simply stopped reporting. In California, we also have thefts under $950 being misdemeanors. ie. the police won't even show up to take a report, so not counted.
We know this for several reasons, but the main indicator is that when one Target location recently decided to report each shoplifting count, it dominated SF's city-wide theft stats during that period - a single store.
Not in San Francisco, where Boudin and supporters continue to claim that retailers are lying about the magnitude of the problem as an excuse to close their stores. The discrepancy at issue is that reports by retailers to police of theft have only slightly increased. That should give one pause. But considering that chain retailers are [purportedly] seeing dozens of thefts per day per store--even more that go unseen until taking inventory--and that they're often seeing the same offenders repeatedly even after arrest and prosecution, then it makes sense, especially in light of all the other evidence.
There seem to be many flaws in this article. The one that stuck out to me was chart showing the "Change in Shoplifting by Geography". Though it says shoplifting is down 40% in SF, this is "decline in shoplifting reports".
If nobody is going to do anything about shoplifting, are shops going to bother reporting it?
Seems to be a severely flawed post.
Note: I don't live in SF, and have no dog in this fight.
> Also, it states that reports of theft are down. I mean obviously. If stores are shutting down and police cannot even arrest thieves then it follows that the stores are not even bothering to report shoplifting any longer.
Don't know what to say to this, other than it's an unfalsifiable claim and will always point the way you want -- Crime is always too high, because any decline is the result of non reporting. If the vast majority of the shoplifting losses are by professional organized criminal gangs, I'm surprised that the chains wouldn't report them
> ...and the data that's more relevant is that these chains are reporting that nearly HALF of their total losses in all of California, come from San Francisco.
Where did you hear this?. The only stat I can find close to this is from CVS, which says 26% of incidents (42% of $ value) of their losses from shoplifting _in the Bay Area_ come from San Francisco.
> While crime data doesn't capture all incidents of theft, as some go unreported, it does provide a reliable way to measure relative levels of theft among stores.
Seattle crime statistics are misleading. It's been reported many times that since the police no longer even show up for shoplifting crimes, business owners no longer bother to report it.
Nobody knows what the crime rate actually is as a result. But the accountants at the retail stores know, and they're raising prices, installing armored doors, or simply leaving the city.
The local bank branch I patronize now sports an armed guard wearing body armor standing outside the door. It's only a block from the police station. Pretty sad.
For one, Walgreens has shuttered a portion of their SF fleet due to increased theft and lack of enforcement. I would trust their inventory theft statistics much more than the police department’s, and so do they.
On the other hand, what evidence there that this effect is not more pronounced than it was in the past?
I don't believe that, and willing to bet source numbers will show otherwise. Similar situation in SF, and I have recently observed two shopliftings at local stores, which I have never seen before. If officers only respond to $1000 damage or above, thugs know to only take $900 from the store. If police doesn't do anything, no one else CAN because the same laws comes back and bite you in the ass.
OTOOH, I have worked in SF for 24 years. Back then I don't think I ever saw anyone shoplift. I'm sure it happened, but I never personally witnessed it. In the last year or so, I have personally witnessed people shoplifting in various SF retail establishments probably more than 30 times. On only two occasions have I seen anyone attempt do anything to try to stop the perpetrator. In my opinion, I think the CNN article is incorrect in its assertions. Based on my personal experiences, I would say it's happening a lot and with increasing regularity. I think the people who do it should be punished.
Given the numerous videos of shoplifters just walking into SF stores and stealing in plain view while being recorded, I doubt this will stop any of them. Unless there is some change to the system of policies that cause stores to do effectively nothing about shoplifting, it’s not going to stop.
>A study released last month, drawing on police data, found that shoplifting reports were 16% higher in the first half of 2023 compared with 2019. But, critically, if you exclude New York City’s stats, the number of shoplifting incidents fell 7%, or about 2,550 fewer than in 2019, according to the Council on Criminal Justice, which conducted the study.
It seems unlikely that this would be successful in convincing anyone who feels crime is getting worse. The entire theory is predicated around the idea (true or not) that cities stopped prosecuting non-violent crimes. It's unclear to me that if a store realized at the end of the day that $80 worth of toothpaste was missing, they'd file a police report. It's unclear to me they'd file a police report if their security guard walk someone caught someone walk out the door with a couple hundred dollars worth of items.
It would be like if you were fearful that police stopped caring about domestic violence - and then someone cited police stats on domestic violence arrests to you. Of course the statistic is going to go down if people have less of a reason to go to you for help.
Stores are putting anti-theft devices on items such as toothpaste where I live. I've switched to Amazon anyways, but it's annoying when you need something in a pinch. Maybe they are doing it simply because the anti-theft devices have gotten cheaper to make and use, but I doubt it.
Some people aren't aware it's de-facto legal to go into a SF store and steal $949 worth of stuff and leave and there's nothing anyone will do. Shop owners who call the police will get in trouble themselves.
Unbelievable that it got to this in the first place but that's a political mono-culture for you, they get to try wild and different policies without push back hoping for positive counterintuitive results that somehow lessens crime and improves equity but all they're doing is creating food deserts as business flees.
That article is playing a bunch of statistical games, like comparing 2022 to 2023 instead of to prior to the mass mob looting incidents, using national data to hide effects of primarily regional issues, citing figures with obvious reporting bias by only counting incidents reported to the police that could do nothing without caring about their severity as a way to cast doubt on the idea that they actually needed to close the stores in the problem areas.
And even then it was forced to admit that shoplifting is up even if one retailer's shrinkage numbers (which includes a lot more than just shoplifting) went down. Never mind their other interventions, like closing stores in problem areas or spending more on security.
You're right to believe your lying eyes here. There were a lot of statistical errors in the article and they all went in the same direction, working to downplay the kind of problems you witnessed first hand.
Official crime statistics are mostly fake because no police report is ever filed for the majority of shoplifting incidents. The large retailers all have accurate internal data on shrinkage rates. But so far they haven't been willing to release enough details for outsiders to assess the situation.
They may not report those crimes to the police, but police reports aren't the only way to find out data on crime rates. Stores will still report shoplifting loses to their insurance companies for example.
Seems like the logical solution would be an objective academic study, where anonymous trained observers (e.g. present/former loss prevention types) count all the number of thefts. The stores would allow the observers to make the count by whatever means appropriate, e.g. whatever monitoring the stores currently use, additional hidden RF tags that wouldn’t be cost-effective otherwise, etc.. Then anonymize any stats for public release. No attempt would, or would be allowed to, be made by the observers to intervene. When the welfare of an entire City is at stake, it seems a worthwhile activity. For objectivity sake, the academics should be from out of state.
More direct and certified identification of actual theft than comparing units purchased in inventory v. actual purchases of said units. Should make it possible to then quantify thefts by employees v. shoplifters.
Arguing about data gets the City nowhere. Find out what’s actually going on. The sooner, the quicker.
Yes, because crime is so bad that almost every department, convenience, and grocery store has armed security patrolling outside and guarding the entrance. This isn't a thing in other cities. Even in the south side of Chicago. As a new transplant to SF it seems like shoplifting is actually encouraged here. If I was poor and broke, i would 100% be shoplifting every day. Could probably make a pretty easy 50k a year shoplifting tactically.
Why are you narrowly only willing to look at theft related store closures from 2020-2021, and not 2019?
While things in SF have gotten worse, the article makes it clear that theft was a key reason these CVSs closed in SF.
All the retailers have issued statements about rampant theft in SF. You keep comparing it to NYC store closures, but the no one is posting videos of mass brazzen robberies in NYC. No retailer is making press releases about rampant theft in NYC. NYC stores don't have reduced hours, increased goods behind locked panels, nor guards at the door.
The evidence is all there. Denial of what's going on in SF is bizarre.
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