> …Omicron (the dominant variant) is like a mild cold.
Omicron appears mild in the statistics because by the time it hit western countries like the US and UK, there was almost nobody left who hasn’t either been vaccinated or exposed to a prior variant, or both.
Countries with low vaccination rates and low prior exposure rates are seeing severity of outcome with Omicron that is comparable to prior variants.
> It doesn't say 'mild compared to a cold' though.
"Mild compared to a cold" is not what I wrote either. I said it's "like a mild cold" for vaccinated people. "Mild cold" being, you know, what people get all the time: some sore throat/cough/congestion. No high fevers, not bedridden, etc.
If you read the news beyond that one link I pasted above, you'll see what I said is pretty consistent with what has been reported. Here's [1] another one:
> For many people, especially those who are vaccinated and otherwise healthy, Omicron does appear to have relatively mild symptoms, including upper respiratory or cold like symptoms like a runny nose congestion, sneezing, and sore throat—which is relatively common—and headaches. Fever is less common than we’ve seen with other variants, especially in vaccinated people.
It's milder when measured by overall hospitalization rates (covering vaccinated + unvaccinated + past infection), but is there evidence that it is milder for unvaccinated individuals specifically? Genuine question, happy to learn.
> the omicron variant is somewhat close to common cold, and that it causes mild symptoms
No, we don’t have anywhere near enough data yet to draw that conclusion.
What we know for sure is that it generally doesn’t cause hospitalization/death among people that have previously been infected by Covid or vaccinated. Which is generally true for every variant. And we also know that it has a significant degree of immune escape, causing a much higher rate of reinfections / breakthrough infections than previous variants.
It may be that it turns out to cause less severe disease even for the immunologically naïve, and many observers are hopeful that that turns out to be the case.
> cannot get the vaccines for health reasons
I would recommend you consult a physician who is an expert in your condition before making this decision.
> In fully vaccinated and/or boosted people, omicron symptoms tend to be mild.
Mild in comparison to other strains of Covid, yes. Tends not to require hospitalisation and has a lower risk of death. It doesn't say 'mild compared to a cold' though. I think it its too early for a study too be able to suggest that Omicron changed the possibility of developing long Covid either.
In regards to identifying yourself as one of the people I was targeting in my comment about 'some guy', I will put that down to a guilty concience.
>The big question is whether the disease is genuinely milder, or whether the mild cases are just a consequence of the virus infecting people who are partially immune
The initial data says that even though South Africa has a much lower vaccination rate, omicron is mild.
From today:
> lack of high death and hospitalization rates, despite the fact that Omicron has spread at breakneck speed across the country and accounts for most of the infections over the past three weeks, is the most glaring difference.
> Is there any evidence that shows that omicron is even particularly dangerous?
Looks like death rates are climbing in jurisdictions who were on the leading edge of the Omicron wave. If I had to guess, it's significantly better if infected than Delta, but still much worse than we're used to dealing with with influenza.
> There has a been a “savior” strain that a lot of us have been hoping for which is: extremely transmissible, and relatively benign.
This is only able to have any benefit to the extent that it also is strongly and durably protective against infection from other variants.
I'm hopeful that things go much better this time around, both because vaccines are still somewhat protective and it looks somewhat less dangerous than Delta.
"A widely-shared quote from a South African doctor, saying Omicron causes only mild symptoms, is being taken out of context. She was referring to a small group of young, healthy people and warned of severe disease in other groups"
> There is no evidence Omicron is milder than Delta.
> Cited Study: The non peer-reviewed research was based on UK Health Security Agency and National Health Service data on people who tested positive for COVID-19 in a PCR test in England between November 29 and December 11
Well, of course there won't be evidence in that dataset! This was before even a single omicron death in the UK.
However there is evidence in other datasets - including what is happening on the ground in South Africa.
> The C.D.C. attributed the tendency of Omicron cases to cause less severe illness to the virus itself, as well as growing levels of immunity from prior infections and from the rollout of vaccinations. It said that roughly 30 million more people were fully vaccinated during the Omicron surge than during the Delta wave in the fall.
> As a result, a smaller proportion of coronavirus cases are ending in hospitalizations: The C.D.C. said there had been a peak of 27 hospital admissions for every 1,000 cases in January, compared with 78 admissions per 1,000 cases in the fall.
If it were "highly attenuated," I'd expect close to 0 hospital admissions for every 1,000 cases, not 27.
Exaggerating "less severe" to "near harmless" is one of those errors anti-vax people and other denialists commonly make in their arguments.
> Covid has been decreasing in severity with each new major variety.
That’s not accurate, delta was a marked increase in severity. Omicron is reduced in severity relative to delta, but it’s probably on par with the original strain once prior immunity is accounted for.
> Omicron doesn’t confer great immunity against delta and other, “older” virus variants which are still out there, potentially ready to come back next winter.
Care to share a paper to back this up ? This statement seems hard to prove right now.
> the virus had mutated into omicron, which is weak whether you are vaccinated or not.
That was not Hong Kong's experience with Omicron when it hit a population of unvaccinated older people and their per capita death rate soared up to one of the highest in the world.
The "weak" omicron effect is probably due to preexisting natural immunity and vaccination. South Africa where Omicron originated had a youthful population and high levels of natural immunity. Most of the developed world had a mix of natural immunity and high levels of vaccination (particularly in the elderly). Hong Kong had neither and Omicron still tore it up.
Omicron appears mild in the statistics because by the time it hit western countries like the US and UK, there was almost nobody left who hasn’t either been vaccinated or exposed to a prior variant, or both.
Countries with low vaccination rates and low prior exposure rates are seeing severity of outcome with Omicron that is comparable to prior variants.
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1503420660869214213?...
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