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Big droughts have come and gone over the years. Here’s a nice historical data explorer: https://www.drought.gov/historical-information?dataset=0&sel...


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More interesting to me are the change maps that show if drought is getting better or worse over some period

12 months seems to be the max change range and it only goes back to July 2004, but cool to see!

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/ChangeMaps.aspx


In any case, drought conditions are the best in a long time: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Data/Timeseries.aspx

Last year wasn't exceptional in regards to drought on average[1]. Obviously some areas were more dry and some were less dry.

[1]: https://www.drought.gov/historical-information?dataset=0&sel...


I get the feeling that droughts have happened before, are happening now, and will happen again; and we are just not able as humans to control the climate.

In fact I found this study that proves that history does repeat.

https://www.clim-past.net/9/1985/2013/cp-9-1985-2013.pdf

Thankfully, due to technological advancement though - it is nowhere near as damaging as it once was - in fact now these are barely a blip on the radar on human life. In times past, it is easy to forget that a simple drought halted all commerce, caused great famines, and without transportation and local food sources available, people were dying.

Just take a look at the history and see the trend lines for the evidence of improvement that advancements like electricity and internal combustion have given us:

https://ourworldindata.org/famines

Here's one for technology!


There have been droughts in the past. But a drought in the past would be no proof that climate change is not real.

Drought.gov actually keeps track of that!

For example for New Hampshire: https://www.drought.gov/states/new-hampshire

Scroll down to the graph, click "1895 - Present (Monthly)", and click the different levels of exceptional drought/exceptional wetness.

You can see that NH has been trending wetter for the last 100 years (as with all the northeast), more or less the opposite of the southwestern US. Large periods of exceptional wet have happened in my life, with fewer big droughts than ever. (Alas, we're in a drought right now.)

You can also see that California had some unusually wet periods in the 80's and 90's, which might have informed policy, but were simply an anomaly: https://www.drought.gov/states/california


As someone who has lost track of drought info. Is this still a net-positive for the region?

It's easier to imagine the drought conditions of recent years/decades repeating.

The edit window on the parent comment has expired, but here's some direct data on droughts:

http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/adai/papers/Dai-drought_WIRES201...

So I think it's fair to say that while the evidence may be debatable, it is not "scant".


To be fair most of that decade has been a state-declared drought (2012-2016) :) and I believe the interceding years were also usually low in terms of precipitation even though they didn't meet the formal definition of a drought.

None of that detracts from this of course.


Well its wise to keep it in perspective. Found this page with a list of historic droughts.

https://historicdroughts.ceh.ac.uk/content/standpipe-drought...


I'm talking about the drought in 2008 ( as compared to 2007 )

Are droughts unprecedented?

Climate change is a long-term thing. No single weather event can definitively be tied to it.

This drought is just one event in a long line of documented historical droughts in California. Yes, it's worse than the other ones in recorded history, but we've only been recording for ~200 years so the sample size is small. We can observe further back via tree rings and other creative forensics, but you also have to factor in the different climate. It's not like California didn't have any major droughts before global warming.

Additionally, humans have gutted the only major rainforest in our hemisphere in just the past 30 years. It's entirely possible that the California drought has much more to do with the Amazon being slash-n-burned than due to carbon emissions (although they both contribute to global warming).


A drought isn't climate change. The annual weather is a chaotic system, and a drought for a year or two (or even 10) is normal. Climate change is much longer term.

Yes I'm in New Hampshire in that very unfun drought right now. But droughts like this were the norm. Now they're more rare.

On drought.gov if you scroll below the map and click 1895 - Present in the graph at the bottom of the page, you'll see just how common droughts in NH used to be compared to the much high "abnormally wet" conditions of today.

https://www.drought.gov/states/new-hampshire

try clicking D3 / W3 or D4 / W4 also to get a good picture of how it's changed.

Post 2000's NH has had the most extreme wet and the least extreme drought of any time period (except maybe the 1970's)


Climate change changed the odds of such a drought from 1 in 100,000 to 1 in 25.

Nobody intelligent is claiming that droughts didn't happen in the past.

Current drought is ridiculously bad, but is exacerbated by the ridiculously wet period that preceded it.
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