I have exactly zero doubts that Russia incited this war. I just described my prefered ending of it.
The parade is necessary because the lack of parade after Russia lost the cold war was what created Putin. Just like the lack of parade in Berlin after the WWI spawned Hitler decades later. Russians just didn't understand how hard they lost.
On the parade I'd see NATO represented as it fought. So just few few officials and NATO equipment. Operated purely Ukrainian soldiers. They might be NATO soldiers at this point or just soon to be NATO soldiers (as Ukraine should be admitted into NATO in a blink of an eye after the victory).
I'm fully aware that this ending might not happen because Ukraine doesn't have much to gain from pushing Russian army to Moskov not just to the borders but one might be hopeful.
This war showed that Russia is dangerously rotten and talking about military threat to Russia is completely out of place. It's a saying that a garbage dump might be threatened by a possible hostile takeover by Amazon. Getting in there would be a charity mission not a threat.
There is a theory that precisely this is why Putin decided to try and take over Ukraine with most of the troops coming from piss poor regions of Russia. For Putin, it likely still is a win-win scenario: the fallen soldiers won't protest in their home regions and demand reforms, their families will worship them as heroes and even if the war fails in the end and only Crimea and Donbas get under Russian control [1], it will still have been worth the effort.
[1] Note that I wish for Russia to be completely driven out of Ukraine and to be treated as a warmonger like Germany was after 1945, this is unfortunately not realistic.
We know exactly how the war would go without the external support because that's how the war started. Russia picked the time, date, place and had the initiative, Ukraine wasn't convinced that Russia was going to invade despite US warnings, and yet despite all that the Russian advance bogged down in three days. After one month multiple intelligence sources and an accidental leak from Russia said Russia had experienced around 10,000 fatalities. This was during the period before significant amounts of arms had arrived from other countries. This was done by Ukraine largely using what it had at the outbreak of war. That is a huge number of dead in such a short time. This is not Russia showing competence.
Like you said, Russia hasn't mobilised, but they wouldn't start a war they thought they wouldn't win so the fact they haven't mobilised and invaded anyway shows poor intelligence and lack of judgement. The fact Russia didn't mobilise isn't evidence of Russia secretly been good actually, it's more evidence of incompetence.
And clearly Russia hasn't sent its entire military but since their military is much larger than Ukraine's they can pick the units and equipment most suitable for the mission, where Ukraine just has to use everything, regular military, reservists, paramilitaries, and in many cases volunteers with literally hours of training. So even if the numbers are similar the advantage would still be with Russia.
No matter how you try to paint it Russia had nearly every advantage yet still managed to largely stall in just three days and experience huge losses doing it. It is blindingly clear the Russian military is doing a very incompetent job and it takes some very motivated reasoning to begin to argue otherwise.
It's not just enough to call for critical thinking, you actually have to practice it.
But that is not what will happen. From all indications of Russia wins this war and installs a puppet regime that regime will meet heavy popular resistance and be overthrown as soon as Russia leaves the country. So I do not see much option here other than trying to defend Ukraine and to isolate and/or topple Putin. Your ideas about not provoking Russia are not relevant in the current climate where Putin is hated in Ukraine and where the Ukrainians do not want to be in the Russian sphere of influence. Your strategy might have worked in 2010 but now it is too late.
In my opinion the war is a success if Putin can get his hands on luhansk and donetsk. That's the only way this can end well for Russia. They take some more coal and oil territory, make a few billions of dollars more money and then go back to being a dormant threat and gas station for Europe. Who cares if you are ruining your country if you end up richer in the end?
If Putin actually wanted to get his hands on Ukraine to turn it into a puppet state or kick start a neo soviet union then he completely failed.
The point of this war from Russia standpoint is that Ukraine should not exist as nation. The point is to take over Ukraine, change government to puppet one at best and then export their own autocracy there.
Then they may get ready for further expansion, as Russia has already done several times in their history. And Putin is in fact praising that history.
A Russian victory in Ukraine being would be Pyrrhic. No matter what the PR on the war's eventual end is, Putin hollowed out Russia to fight this war. The negative impacts on Russia will last until the end of this century, and beyond.
The war isn't over because Putin doesn't care what the costs are. It's not sustainable though. Ukraine will keep fighting and the west will keep supporting it. What are Russia's options?
So sure, not decisively defeated. It's not like the entire Russian army was wiped out and Ukrainians are marching in Moscow. But still defeated for all intents and purposes and all around loss (world status, material etc.). This has got to be the dumbest war ever.
The invasion of Ukraine has been such a pointless and ruinous war for Russia. It has made Russia weaker, more isolated, and more dependent on China. Russia's invasion has resulted in Russians dying for reason no better than Putin's vanity.
Russia can end the war tomorrow by simply getting out of all of Ukraine. That will be the best outcome for Russia.
Yes actually, a Ukrainian victory will in fact stop the war. Furthermore, an ending to the invasion that results in Ukrainians being ethnically cleansed and Russia in a position to pursue more invasions is not a better outcome than war (specifically the one that Russia chose and continues to choose to pursue) for quite a few very obvious reasons.
Let’s be clear the only reason for this war is Russia not Ukraine. No one else made the decision to invade except Russian.
The world would be a much worse place if Russia won, be happy that the Russians are getting routed by western weapons, it means that Russia is getting much weaker and poorer per day.
I fully supported surgical separation of Donbass along the ceasefire lines. That would have stopped people suffering there, and would have been a forever reminder to Ukraine what happens when you let your nationalist radicals run unleashed and turn blind eye to their actions. What has been happening these 2 last days - indiscriminate killing of people all across the Ukraine - has nothing to do with it, and is a shame on my old country. I hope and believe Ukrainians will get victorious in the end while that catastrophe of a war for Russia will, similar like the defeat in Afghanistan, result in total crash of Putin's regime, and may be, just may be, i don't hold my breath here, some awakening of Russian society as a result of a burning shame and repentance.
Current Russian society has proven incapable of self-management as well as incapable of responsible management of such a large territory and military force including nukes. I suppose that as a result Russia, similar to Germany after WWI and WWII, may be broken up with limits on military force, giving up nukes, and other restrictions. Very probably losing that key place in UN Security Council. In short - Putin with clear permission from the whole society, save for a few brave souls, blew up any last chances for Russia to be a great country. (note: Putin is counting on China's support here agreed upon in exchange for Russian support in the future Taiwan takeover, yet that senile moron completely misses that once things go wrong in the Ukraine invasion - and they will - China will be the first to use the chance to get rid of that aggressive nuclear powered neighbor and to replace it with a docile client state comprised of the Far East part of that former neighbor)
I think Russians can articulate a logical reason for the war: in their perception, Ukraine was becoming unacceptably close to the West/NATO and they took a gamble to prevent it. Whether the gamble will pay off, we'll see. But I can follow the logic - risk for a chance at upside.
What's the upside of blowing up your own pipeline and then denying it?
It's a fact that Russia's military is still superior to Ukraine's. A plausible outcome of the current war is
* Ukraine formally acknowledging its loss of Crimea and the Russian-heavy east, all under Russian occupation since 2014
* Ukraine formally declaring neutrality (i.e., no joining NATO)
* Rump Ukraine's borders formally guaranteed by Russia/US/NATO
This gives Putin something that he can plausibly sell to Russians as a win, and codifies US/Western military intervention on Ukraine's behalf (not just the current flow of supplies) from further Russian revanchism, while not losing any/much territory that wasn't already out of Ukrainian hands before the invasion began.
Now, if the indications that Russian logistics have broken down and Russia's losses are unsustainable are true, that's a different story. But I am not ready to conclude that yet.
It is as gibberish as your original comment read to me. There’s this undercurrent in your arguments that Russia was always going to do this, like an inevitable force of nature, and Ukraine just has to/ had to get out of the way.
If you don’t hold that assumption, like myself, then your viewpoint seems absurd
Russia claimed it was a military drill. Also Russian military active personnel is 1,014,000, so most of it was not at the border. Also, no one really gave a convincing reason why Russia would benefit from invading Ukraine now.
Does US leadership have an infinite reserve of credibility so that no matter how many times they are wrong or don't have a convincing case in the first place, they are to be trusted?
The parade is necessary because the lack of parade after Russia lost the cold war was what created Putin. Just like the lack of parade in Berlin after the WWI spawned Hitler decades later. Russians just didn't understand how hard they lost.
On the parade I'd see NATO represented as it fought. So just few few officials and NATO equipment. Operated purely Ukrainian soldiers. They might be NATO soldiers at this point or just soon to be NATO soldiers (as Ukraine should be admitted into NATO in a blink of an eye after the victory).
I'm fully aware that this ending might not happen because Ukraine doesn't have much to gain from pushing Russian army to Moskov not just to the borders but one might be hopeful.
This war showed that Russia is dangerously rotten and talking about military threat to Russia is completely out of place. It's a saying that a garbage dump might be threatened by a possible hostile takeover by Amazon. Getting in there would be a charity mission not a threat.
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