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bpodgursky · 2022-11-09 11:13:01

They likely were hoping for that, but I think this decision was tactical based on the frontline degrading over the past couple weeks, not reacting to the election.

They've been prepping defenses on the left bank for most of a month.

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tguvot | karma 1056 | avg karma 1.5 · | 2022-03-08 13:14:28

actually it looks like they planned for a quick victory in a couple of days and slap on the hand like they got in 2014. they didn't anticipated this mess and this level of sanctions.

tbrownaw | karma 5348 | avg karma 2.25 · | 2020-12-23 07:25:20

The timing seems odd for that, given that their preferred side seems rather likely to be largely in control for the next couple years.

dragonwriter | karma 118260 | avg karma 2.17 · | 2023-08-07 14:54:54

They hadn't been preparing for it to last 18 months, and part of their preparation had been oriented at influence operations to preemptivelt disrupt Western unity and political response when the war qas launched. While I won't say that categorically failed (it still has tangible effects), it has been far from a complete success.

arenaninja | karma 1556 | avg karma 2.45 · | 2016-09-06 16:27:08+00:00

I don't have a good answer for you, because what you said sounds rational, but their tactics were slimy and their immediate shuttering signals, in my opinion, that they had no legitimate shot without a seat in the government trough.

alwayslikethis | karma 2074 | avg karma 3.14 · | 2022-05-14 15:59:31

Same, it sounds like a smart statement to make to garner some popular support. Though, judging by the current situation on the fronts, they probably have bigger things to worry about.

k__ | karma 14385 | avg karma 1.6 · | 2019-05-21 22:12:38+00:00

I had the impression they would do it to keep control of their citizens.

Annatar | karma 6 | avg karma 0.0 · | 2016-09-26 09:33:28+00:00

My impression is that it was a vote spurned by desire for security and stability, before anything else.

vba616 | karma 1281 | avg karma 0.94 · | 2022-06-17 18:06:10

Their territorial objectives have apparently been redefined to encompass the areas that they already de facto possessed since 2014.

Isn't that true?

The only obvious thing accomplished lately is all the death and destruction. It can't have been planned this way.

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achamayou | karma 850 | avg karma 2.66 · | 2015-08-11 10:41:55+00:00

But politically, that would be relinquishing a degree of control, something they've been loath to do in general, especially in areas that are of strategic importance.

Gaelan | karma 2595 | avg karma 2.88 · | 2021-05-05 23:26:06

Any reason for that, other than lack of political will?

nir | karma 5115 | avg karma 4.81 · | 2012-11-30 06:10:45

I wonder what caused them to do that. It doesn't seem like the regime's been pulling any punches so far, and the various YouTube evidence etc didn't seem to cause any increase in outside pressure. Why do it now?

uni_rule | karma 437 | avg karma 1.64 · | 2022-12-06 09:46:42

Policies like this actually move pretty slowly. This is still a reaction to Ukraine in february, not planning for anything in particular, just the possibility of a fucked status quo.

gibwell | karma 366 | avg karma 1.99 · | 2013-10-01 16:01:55+00:00

Why do they need to act any different? Their current tactics are working very well.

sbarre | karma 10170 | avg karma 4.57 · | 2020-05-01 11:43:24

Yeah, unfortunately, the truth is probably that they are regrouping and planning a different and more defensible path to the same outcome, and will just try this again in a few years.

indymike | karma 9692 | avg karma 3.23 · | 2023-03-25 14:29:46

That was in full effect at the time. They would like for this to be the case, but reality is very different.

dpe82 | karma 1238 | avg karma 3.77 · | 2019-01-13 18:48:11

The article makes it pretty clear it was intentional in order to avoid further political strife in the occupied country.

kingkawn | karma 3475 | avg karma 1.85 · | 2016-04-25 16:11:46

All true but done in light of the historical record of every other time the party crashed to a halt suddenly. They're trying to not let everything go to shit while a solution is prayed for.

ttyprintk | karma 876 | avg karma 0.73 · | 2022-01-07 18:53:30

Their chances of success are much higher next time. An “unrest detector” won’t be deployed to preserve democracies.

confidantlake | karma 1051 | avg karma 1.73 · | 2022-09-09 11:08:44

This feels like short term thinking on their part. You are unlikely to gain many allies this way and more likely to develop enemies.