These people are supposed to be some kind of geniuses but everything that comes out of their mouth is contentless drivel. Caroline says at best she's using elementary school math. The articulation SBF provided of how the system works was literally something like 'A box you put coins into and take money out of' which he then explained to be a ponzi scheme in everything but name. How on earth did these kids come to be in charge of such massive amount of capital? The whole thing defies logic.
This video was from a month ago and is about the same podcast with Sam Bankman-Fried. The way he describes the box and how it isn't a Ponzi scheme is just ridiculous
> The best video I've seen is SBF basically admitting it was a ponzi scheme: [link omitted]
> Selling something with no value other than the attention it gets on Twitter and the reputation it gets via reputable investors.
But that is clearly not a Ponzi scheme. A Ponzi scheme involves an obligation to pay people returns on their fake investment. Here, the pitch was "I don't know why people want these things, but they do. Want one?", and that pitch was honest and accurate. There was no pretense that you'd be getting any special returns.
By your standard, all trading in any commodity or stock is a Ponzi scheme, unless you're planning to consume the stuff yourself. Did you buy 300,000 pork bellies? Ponzi scheme. Do you have a bar of gold? Ponzi scheme. Do you have a share of Tesla? Ponzi scheme.
Compare Charles Ponzi, whose investment thesis was "guaranteed returns of 50% in 45 days", who specified the exact trade he was making (buying American stamps in Italy, where they were cheap, and selling them in America, where they weren't), and who never actually performed that trade. A Ponzi scheme is defined by paying off people who have invested in you with funds from other people who have invested in you.
Wow that is a the saddest ponzi scheme I've come across so far... it really makes you wonder how bad our educational system is if our ponzi schemes are getting so poorly designed and managed.
This was always a Ponzi scheme, and SBF was incredibly open about it being a Ponzi scheme, and yet people still tried to beat out the Ponzi scheme. Here's SBF back in April (just a small excerpt, the full section is far more damning):
> SBF: So, you know, X tokens [are] being given out each day, all these like sophisticated firms are like, huh, that's interesting. Like if the total amount of money in the box is a hundred million dollars, then it's going to yield $16 million this year in X tokens being given out for it. That's a 16% return. That's pretty good. We'll put a little bit more in, right? And maybe that happens until there are $200 million dollars in the box. So, you know, sophisticated traders and/or people on Crypto Twitter, or other sort of similar parties, go and put $200 million in the box collectively and they start getting these X tokens for it.
> And now all of a sudden everyone's like, wow, people just decide to put $200 million in the box. This is a pretty cool box, right? Like this is a valuable box as demonstrated by all the money that people have apparently decided should be in the box. And who are we to say that they're wrong about that? Like, you know, this is, I mean boxes can be great. Look, I love boxes as much as the next guy. And so what happens now? All of a sudden people are kind of recalibrating like, well, $20 million, that's it? Like that market cap for this box? And it's been like 48 hours and it already is $200 million, including from like sophisticated players in it. They're like, come on, that's too low. And they look at these ratios, TVL, total value locked in the box, you know, as a ratio to market cap of the box’s token.
> ...
> Matt Levine: I think of myself as like a fairly cynical person. And that was so much more cynical than how I would've described farming. You're just like, well, I'm in the Ponzi business and it's pretty good.
> A Ponzi scheme is a form of fraud that lures investors and pays profits to earlier investors with funds from more recent investors. Named after Italian businessman Charles Ponzi, the scheme leads victims to believe that profits are coming from legitimate business activity (e.g., product sales or successful investments), and they remain unaware that other investors are the source of funds.
Key phrases:
* the scheme leads victims to believe that profits are coming from legitimate business activity
AND
* they remain unaware that other investors are the source of funds.
Neither of those apply to cryptocurrencies. Nobody believes that Bitcoin conducts business activity, and everyone is transparently aware that other investors are the source of cash-out funds.
> There's net inflows of currency, and net outflows of currency
Commodities (fungible property of market value, like cryptocurrencies) don't have net inflows or outflows. Commodity prices are determined by order books which are in turn determined by supply and demand, not by capital flow. When a buyer and seller meet and exchange money for a piece of property (like a bitcoin), there is no "inflow" or "outflow", property just changes hands.
> there is a systemic bank balance at any one time of currency.
There is no "systemic bank balance at any one time of currency". That's not how cryptocurrency works. Where is Bitcoin's bank account, and what is Bitcoin's bank account balance?
> If outflows exceed inflows for long enough then the balance is drained to zero and the music stops.
Cryptocurrencies have no such inflows, outflows, or "balance". They aren't like investment funds or companies - they behave like physical objects, like beanie babies if you will. The beanie baby crash wasn't caused by any kind of beanie baby "balance" being drained to zero, it was caused by people collectively deciding that beanie babies were no longer worth a premium price.
> Madoff's Ponzi worked up until the 2008 recession hit him with redemptions and outflows and his bank balance got drained.
Bitcoin does not have redemptions, outflows, or a bank account. It's a series of rocks that people trade between themselves, sometimes at a higher price, sometimes at a lower price.
You seem to be confused about the definition of cryptocurrency. Should we go over that next?
It's not a neat idea. There's no novel economic concept here. It's just a ponzi scheme that has run out of greater fools. Remove the layers of deception and it is fundamentally a ponzi scheme.
There's a legendary interview between SBF and Matt "Money Stuff" Levine, where he straight up admits to crypto being a Ponzi scheme.
So you've got this boxes and it’s kind of dumb, but like what's the end game, right? This box is worth zero obviously. And like that, you know, you can't like keep this smart cap or something. But on the other hand, if everyone kind of now thinks that this box token is worth about a billion dollar market cap, that's what people are pricing it at and sort of has that market cap. Everyone's gonna mark to market. In fact, you can even finance this, right? You put X token in a borrow lending protocol and borrow dollars with it. If you think it's worth like less than two thirds of that, you could even just like put some in there, take the dollars out. Never, you know, give the dollars back. You just get liquidated eventually.
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