Taiwan is also stategically important because it guards access from the Pacific to China and back. To the north there is Japan and South Korea (US allies), and to the south there are Vietnam and the Philippines, who already feel the pressure of the expansion of China's influence (Chinese military bases in the South China sea), and are thus likely to side with the US in the future. Right now, China is sorta contained, but if the CCP can reassert itself on Taiwan, the situation will flip and the CCP will have full control about access to the mainland from the sea, and can freely access the Pacific.
On the other hand, if I think more about it, it may be a key strategic interest of Taiwan to ensure that USA and EU don't get any reasonable onshore fab capacity in the near future - if Taiwan (and trade with it) becomes irreplaceable for USA and EU, possibly even more irreplaceable than the trade with mainland China, that would ensure that USA and EU would be motivated to defend Taiwan against any attempts of forceful reunification.
It is not just Taiwan's advanced manufacturing that is critical to the free world — an enormous amount of shipping for Japan also goes through the Straits Of Taiwan. This is just part of the reason that the US Navy frequently runs freedom of navigation exercises through those waters.
Mere reduction of the criticality of Taiwan's advanced manufacturing will not eliminate Taiwan's geostrategic importance.
Plus, the CCP's insistence on being an expansionist authoritarian state is reason enough to contain that expansion, to prevent further resource gains.
Taiwan importance is its geography. If China is able to control Taiwan it would not have any restriction for its shipping lanes and military. Its a much more important asset in the long run compared to HK.
This is very interesting in the context of increasing US-China tensions over Taiwan. https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/red-l...
I wonder just how much more important Taiwan will be getting to the West if we lose even more of our SC capabilities.
The chip foundries are just one factor in the importance of Taiwan. What matters more is that control over Taiwan would vastly simplifies to exercise control over what China perceives as their territorial waters (not just as their Exclusive Economic Zone!). The economic impact can be tanked by a national economy and is easily justified in the name of furthering national security, as it would severity weaken US influence in the whole region.
Not to mention the PLA and the turning of mainland back to Maoist policies.
Taiwan's critical role is the tech sector is IMO a deterrent bigger than Nuclear weapons at this point, and its invasion may well be a casus belli in the coming years.
It's a huge proportion of the graph, it would be like an economic Manhattan project, but 10x bigger. But if things continue on the current trajectory with China's rapid military build-up, base-building around the SCS, threatening Taiwan and the other Asian nations, it may become necessary.
People really blow out of proportion the importance of TSMC. Taiwan is valuable to the west because of its strategic location. TSMC could disappear tomorrow and the US will still have to defend it. The day Taiwan fall is the day the US loses its dominance.
Biggest question here I think is the geopolitical things about this: Where will this be developed? My understanding is that the only fabs this is possible is within Taiwan. That's a massive issue with the current posturing of war.
I think it's certainly true that people are keeping Taiwan in mind with regard to this, but I think you're underestimating the risk of nuclear conflict, and the specter of larger war in Europe. The US certainly has more than Taiwan on their mind here.
Taiwan is very important to China strategically. It's an unsinkable aircraft carrier off of their coast. Think how sensitive the US has been about Cuba.
It's going to be a critical one too. Not that any really haven't been.
International-Relations-wise the US is positioned to retain her monopolar status and then cement it for the century by 2030. The two greatest competitors to her rule were Russia and China. All other powers are strong allies of the US and have no reason to change that.
As we've seen, McCain's quip turned out to be true, the bear is nothing but a mafia in a run-down gas-station. The only other real competitor is China, and without Taiwan's fabs, China can't compete this century. Whole new fields of industry must be created for the dragon to take a shot for a bipolar world.
That the US managed to convince Taiwan to lessen it's grip on that security guarantee (with the Texas fabs okayed recently) shows how much Taiwan thinks the US can win any conflict with the mainland. They aren't scared in the least.
Russia's ongoing disaster only strengthens that feeling, as any invasion, already an operation on never heard of scale, would involve the actual US military. That Russia somehow allows NATO to fight openly against her with the airgap of a Ukrainian finger on the trigger shows how outmatched the bear is. It's basically a weapons test for NATO at this point, much to Ukraine's detriment. China can only guess at how poorly the invasion would go and how bungled it would be. Combined with crushing blockades and sanctions, and she knows any move would kill her economy for decades. Their clock is not ticking, it ran out. The only question is if Beijing knows it.
So yes, I think it is good to be in the US or allied with her.
reply