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> - about 40GW total electricity demand

> - about 100GW of gas

That gas demand should be 70% less, UK has the worst insulation in Europe.

https://theenergyst.com/europes-leakiest-homes-new-study-fin...

There are countries where bombs fell, then communism fell, then bombs fell again, then their currency collapsed, and the houses are still better insulated.



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> Britain has for a long time neglected energy efficiency improvements and investment in renewable energy.

Like the EU nations, the UK was designed and built to use energy in what seemed like a sustainable way. Obviously every Country in Europe is now reconsidering what to make reductions.

If anything this is quite promising for the UK's winter, as there are so many quick-win improvements to be made (assuming we can get sufficient supplies of insulation).

> The houses are the worst insulated in Europe [1].

The majority of the UK doesn't get too much below zero, spending a brief time at -10 degrees. Places in Europe can reach -30/-40 for a sustained period.

We're also talking about houses that are quite old and hard to upgrade (if not impossible due to restrictions).


> (for electrically heated houses, which certainly isn’t all of them)

Electrically heated houses are a very small minority of UK houses:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/426988/united-kingdom-uk...


> it will take 100 years to insulate the majority of houses in Europe

Citation needed. This number is absurd.


> this is extremely, extremely low. No heating, no cooling, no hot water, no car charging. A fridge alone tends to be over 400KW/h

I have a fridge and my water is heated with electricity, I still end up at ~1500kwh per year, while working from home everyday.

Electric heating and cooling is extremely inefficient and barely used in Europe.


> Apparently the average American residential electricity use is 10,791 kwh/year, which is ~1,231 watts, whereas the average British home is only 2,700 kwh/year which is ~308 watts. I had no idea that the difference was so large.

Well, American homes aren't built out of brick and concrete like European buildings are, instead they're made out of wood and cardboard which is barely insulating against heat (and doesn't hold up at all to major storms which is why you're seeing so much destruction after hurricanes), so they lose a lot of energy during winter and have to spend a lot of electricity on AC during the summer.

On top of that, their homes are (at least in suburbia) so much larger than European homes. Heat loss/influx is cubic-related to the footprint IIRC, so it makes for much more energy demand as well.


> Does anyone know how it is in the UK wrt heating with fossil fuels? Is there a ban on the horizon there too?

There was a planned ban on gas heating for new build houses from 2025[1] announced last year.

[1] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-47559920


> at least it's warm indoors, unlike in England.

Haha, that hit very hard after speaking to a home developer at how dire the building regulations are in the UK compared to the EU or even the US with the gov actively subverting better building efficiency regs.

Cronyism is rife in the UK, it's so open it stinks.


> I kind liked washing machines that properly heated to 90C and vacuum cleaners that actually picked up dirt.

This is a problem if you have one rule for different countries, although the EU should be praised that it made an effort at least.

In my region drinking water is no problem. On the contrary, due to washing machines and appliances using less water, waterworks needs to pump water through the pipes regularly to keep them clean. It is also advisable to do that in your home from time to time.

The vacuum cleaners decision was just bad in my opinion. You will take a longer time to use it which removes the energy advantages.

The lighting stuff they did was decent, although I think that light bulbs would have been a thing of the past without regulation due to high energy costs.


> surely you can afford to install an AC unit

Lots of people rent and they can't install AC.

Lots of buildings in Europe are somewhat old and have controls over what you can or can't do with them (I live in England in a property that was built in 1820 and is gradeII listed, which means we're restricted on the kind of work we can do without getting permissions). The age of the buildings also means that AC is harder to install (getting ducting installed can be really difficult) and is less efficient. I have single-pane sash windows with large gaps.

In England there are 22m households. Domestic heating is a significant source of CO2. Adding aircon on top would be pretty concerning.

There's a lot of poor quality housing built in the 1970s and 1980s that should be knocked down and rebuilt, and if we did that we could have much better insulation, and shutters over windows, and so on. But this is hard to do.


> The world has a lot of potential to be more efficient.

This winter wasn’t “efficient” it was cold as hell because we all turned the heating as low as it could go without causing building damage[1] because the price of natural gas more than 10x’ed.

It’s not an example of a sustainable reduction in consumption.

[1] though a lot of people didn’t think things through and set the temperature too low or even turned off the gas and now have mold and other problems in their basements.


> areas that don't have reliable cooling available. Places like, oh, Paris

Most of Europe has extremely poor cooling of buildings even without AC. Stop making buildings black and add outdoor blinds instead of living in a greenhouse (the kind of stuff that is super common in Mediterranean countries), that will already help a lot. Trying to solve the problem with more electricity is making it worse, not better.


> I don’t know anyone who runs their heating for shits and giggles.

Heating isn't a binary thing - we want people to minimise their use of gas within reason.

Most people I know could turn their heating down a couple of degrees and put on a warmer jumper, some thermal underwear, or sit with a hot water bottle whilst at their desk if working from home. I've managed to save >30% of my households gas usage in this way.

Yes, there are people on the poverty line who already use their heating at a minimal level. And at risk elderly people. This problem is best solved with subsidies to these specific groups, rather than gas that is too cheap for everyone relative to its environmental impacts.

This view (that a sizable portion of people can reasonably turn down their heat) is substantiated by UK government research, see e.g. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...

For instance, there are lots of people heating rooms they don't even use, and heating their whole house overnight.


>Europe is behind in AC installations

I do not like this wording. It implies that progress entails an inevitable march of more and more air conditioning, and that this is a good and desirable thing, and that Europe needs to get with the program and start installing more AC.

I see AC installation as a net bad: it indicates that temperatures are exceeding comfortable levels, it burns energy (which will exacerbate the temperature problem in the long run), and it relieves the need to design buildings so that they maintain a comfortable temperature without AC.

The fact that demand for AC is rising is extremely alarming.


> 15-20 year old fridges are about 35% less energy efficient than the best modern fridges, not 100x

I apologise that you took orders of magnitude literally. I'll settle for an entire order of magnitude really. I think it's _way_ more than 35%, though.

> It looks like very efficient fridges today use about 400kWh per year. Those are the best (not the average).

Where did you get that number from? Here's [0] a $220 fridge that advertises at 90 kWh. I found another that claims 61 kWh, but it's $1800 so I left it. 20 years ago is a very specific timeframe, if you go back 25 years you're also likely talking about removing a bunch of horriffic CFC's which were widespread at the time. I'm finding it hard to find numbers for that time frame though, the only ones I can find are early 90's claims of 1700+kWh/year.

But yes, I concede, we have not had a 100x improvement in energy efficiency in 20 years. The entire rest of my post stands, and I think we've seen a 10x improvement in efficiency. At today's electricity price in the UK, the savings from a 550 kWh fridge to the one I linked above would pay for the fridge in a little over a year. Said fridge is under guarantee for 2 years in the EU/UK, so it's a _guaranteed_ cost saving over that time period.

[0] https://ao.com/product/rl170d4bwe-hisense-fridge-white-80358...


> In the UK heat poverty is a widespread problem due to the costs of heating fuels.

I would imagine that he cost of the heating fuels is pretty much the same all over Europe. I think the difference is that in the Nordic countries people seem to insulate their houses better, like using double or even triple glasses in windows to reduce heat waste.


> Germany could replace gas boilers with heat pumps

Given that burning gas in modern electricity gas plants (like Germany has) to power modern decent quality heat pumps is more efficient (and flexible, and future proof) then burning Gas for heating that would be the best solution.

It's also completely unrealistic.

Given how common gas powered house central heating is, and given that some houses have worse constructs (like gas heater per apartment for warm water) I would guess that we would need 1 heat pump per 100 people or more. That would be 800_000 modern decent quality heat pumps. Which all need to be produced, build, shipped and installed.

We already have a shortage of craftsman in Germany, even if we ignore everything up to installation that would be a major problem.

And that's under the assumption that houses can be retrofitted to use heat pumps. But for many houses, especially apartment blogs this would be a problem as there is no good way available to montage/connect the outside-of-house parts of a heat pump on many typical German apartment blogs (living in apartment in apartment blogs is normal in Germany). (You still can do it, but even more cost and time involved).

There are other problems, too.

So I guess the optimal solutions is practically not possible.


> and ensure that her home is properly insulated.

Netherlands is planning to get rid off gas for a while. I've attended a presentation by the city. They planned to spend 12.500 EUR per house to switch to an local heating plan. Basically a source of hot water will enter the home. This pipe is way bigger than a gas pipe, this is why 12.500 EUR is needed per home.

They mentioned that likely you'll pay the same for heating as before.

I find it bonkers. With 12.500, why not insulate and maybe prepare it for a air/water heat pump. The radiators on really old homes will need to be replaced with ones that work with a low temperature. Walls need to be insulated, windows and window frames likely need replacing. Still, it's way better to be more energy efficient than to spend 12.500 EUR per house (of which 11.500 will be "subsidized") than asking people to change things without actually improving their homes.

The problem doesn't seem to be the money. The problem is that idiotic solutions are suggested. Plus that whatever is subsidized goes up in price. E.g. a air/water heat pump costs way too much.


> Maybe this is wrong, but I'm really struggling to see why we would pump gas into our house and burn it under these conditions.

You have forgotten about absorption heat pumps, which are powered by natural gas and are even more efficient than electric ones.


> Europeans, what are you doing for preparation?

By chance I moved to a country with mild winter, close to the seaside (which helps regulate the weather, both in summer and in winter). I just had my open fireplace (which wastes 80% of the burned wood's energy and which requires me to constantly refill) replaced with an efficient closed one (which moreover looks gorgeous). 5 K EUR investment which I'll regain on energy bills in no time.

Buying wood is great, especially so if you happen to have an efficient way of burning it (which an open fireplace certainly isn't).

I'm, so far, one of those who still can deal with crazy energy price raises but I wouldn't want to suffer actual gaz or electricity shortages preventing me from warming the house during the few cold months.

A fireplace and reserves of wood, medieval style, should help.

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