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For the simple reason that market corrections are not absolutes: the only thing that a correction down to 440B tells us is that it hasn’t been corrected down to 0 yet.

It may never be, but that’s just to say that “it’s still valued” is not a good argument for “it’s correctly valued.”



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Sometimes things have an intrinsic value, often because of some utility that they provide. Sometimes the only value is the belief that someone else will pay more for it. [1] When it's the latter there's a difference between the real value and the perceived value. This is why we use the term "correction" to describe a situation where the perceived price falls to match the "correct" price.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory


If the "correct" valuation was halfway between the 2 valuations, then they could have overpaid at valuation, and still have declined in value.

Of course, value is relative and only based on what anyone will pay for it.


Perhaps, but that is not the reason for its current value.

You haven't argued that $17B is a reasonable valuation just that the value is not zero.

They mean that the value should rationally be expected to go down over time as it becomes older and needs repair.

They are wrong because there are many more factors than just speculation


I think your calculating market value wrong.

There isn't a dearth of information online on why the value is valid. Can you present what you find unconvincing?

Not necessarily. You can't time the bottom. You can sure as hell tell overvalued from undervalued though.

And then something happens and market 'corrects' itself. Before investing, it can be useful to know the post-market-corrected value of any asset.

Thank you for correcting the statement. It was a valuation.

By definition, the market is always right on the matter. That's the point of market value. Whether it makes sense or not is another matter entirely.

Those two observations are not inconsistent.

We can have essentially no idea what each contribution to the whole is worth while being certain that the whole must, over the long term, be less than value X.


You’re being rational and using logic. Unfortunately that’s not how markets and valuations work.

The question is if that value is at the right valuation.

That's assuming the current prices are reflective of the actual value rather than a degenerate speculative market.

the true market value can be considerably less, your logic works both ways

True, but valuations and predictions don't always follow a simple "right vs wrong" paradigm.

Yes that’s exactly my point. People look at absolute value of the stock market but what matters is the relative value to the dollar.

You're misunderstanding something here. It's reasonable and very common to say that the true value of a financial asset is different than its market price; anyone who makes an investment in something is expressing the thesis that the current market price is lower than it will be in the future.
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