No one made Russia invade Ukraine. They could have just... not have invaded them, and they could declare victory and leave tomorrow. It's the same with China and Taiwan here, China can just ... not invade Taiwan if they want to avoid a war.
Being sure that nobody else would intervene directly in Ukraine is why the Russians could do on a nationwide scale what nobody thought they would do: bombing every building civilian homes, malls, schools and hospitals is unheard of, at least when done on purpose and on a such large scale. What i find disgusting is that we're slowly adapting to it, and the Russians know that.
However, it is possible that if China invades Taiwan, that event could trigger also an intervention against Russia, at least if one takes for granted that in a direct US vs China conflict, they would quickly escalate to nuclear and Russia would be sucked in as well.
China's mental gymnastics over Taiwan are just that, gymnastics. Its an attempt to weasel out of international law and convention through word games. If they invade it will be seen as an act of aggression and one nation invading another. Nobody except deluded tankies thinks Taiwan is actually part of the PRC and isn't its own sovereign nation.
As for Ukraine, while Russia does formally recognize them as a nation, they do not recognize the current government as legitimate. And that is a big part of their supposed excuse for invading. I find that very similar to China's stance. Taiwan's government is in their eyes not valid and regardless what they say about one china BS, they know that the rest of the world wont see it that way. So in reality they are forced to support Russia's moves to save face.
Not me. I was making bets about when it would happen. I thought it would be earlier in February actually. Every day Russia waited was warmer temperatures and more missiles and supplies funneled into Ukraine.
But an invasion of Taiwan doesn’t really make any sense. Likening it to Ukraine is poor reasoning because you assume the CCP has the same motivations as Putin, or that there are any similarities in logistics or war tactics. The U.S. would defend Taiwan, and an invasion would require months of buildup and would be an incredibly complex combined arms and logistical challenge. The Chinese have little to no experience in executing any sort of operation like this under real world scenarios. Even if they were to succeed somehow the cost would be unbearable. No. It makes much more sense and fits better with Chinese strategy to play the long game and convince Taiwan itself to reunite.
If Ukraine fights off Russia, then the chances of Russia invading a NATO country would fall to almost zero. It would also substantially reduce the chances that China invades Taiwan. Those would both be very expensive to the US. Much cheaper just to give Ukraine weapons.
I'm hoping that Russia actually attacking Ukraine against the strong wishes of the world will cause a similar desire to reign in China and protect Taiwan and other small country democracies. Strategic ambiguity didn't work in Ukraine and it won't work in Taiwan either. Eventually China will attack. So let's get over our fear there and just sign a mutual defense treaty. Ideally we form a NATO of the Pacific with SK, Japan, Australia, NZ, and many other small countries. It would drive China bat shit insane with anger, but they are just going to do what they want eventually unless we get together and stop them.
You misunderstand countries like China. Consider Russia. Was it in Russia's interest to invade Ukraine when EU is such a big trading partner and Nordstream 2 was getting operational ? Made no sense.
This is because for Russia and China, the internal processes are vastly different from a country like USA or UK where we debate housing, inflation and number of genders that are there while Russia can easily draft thousands of young men and just send them to capture some shitty ukrainian town.
Russia’s economy is smaller and less diverse than the state of New York. People treat Russia as a near-peer when they are in reality a backwater gas station strapped to a cold-war era nuclear triad. The fact that their military can’t defeat ukraine is absolutely baffling, but indicative of how rotten that country has become.
Cutting them off from SWIFT isn’t a nuke in the new financial Cold War. It’s the consequence of the path Russia chose when they started this incredibly stupid invasion.
Framing western reactions to Russian stupidity as “the real mistake” shows that you aren’t paying enough attention. The US threw down the gauntlet against an unimportant Russian invasion to ensure China gets the message that the United States is ready for economic warfare over Taiwan. If that action decreases the likelihood of invasion by just 10-20%, it’s certainly worthwhile.
I think Ukraine will ultimately lose because it's not in the West's strategic interest, while it is in Russias. Russia's history is also pretty dark and they are paranoid of invasion. It makes no difference to our lives who governs Ukraine. It's horrible what has happened to the Ukraine and the Ukrainian people are fighting valiantly.
An invasion of Taiwan on the other hand would have a huge and immediate effect on our lives. We could in an instant be cut off from Semiconductors and would likely respond with a trade embargo with China who makes everything.
China will invade Taiwan when the cost to do so is low enough and/or they are desperate. In other words, the probability of success is considerably higher today than it will be in the future (even if the probability of success today isn't great).
Russia is a declining state relative to Ukraine & Europe, so Putin's odds of success in 2022 were considerably higher than they would be 10 years later. So if invading Ukraine was necessary at some point, 2022 was the best time to do it.
China's regime believes that invading Taiwan is necessary, but OTOH the Chinese military is getting stronger very quickly and they believe they'll be in a much better position to invade in a decade then they are now. So there is no way they're going to invade any time soon.
Avoiding a war completely is highly unlikely given Xi & China's policies. But delaying a war is highly likely. And a war indefinitely delayed is a war avoided.
The Chinese position on this and the implications for Taiwan are not as simple as a lot of the press seem to think.
China's claim on Taiwan is based on the principle that it is legally still Chinese territory. Crimea is still legally Ukrainian territory, so Russia's annexation is a real problem for China. They can't support it because that would undermine the basis of their claim on Taiwan. Similarly with the invasion of Ukraine, any principle China could use to support Russian's military intervention in Ukraine could also be used to justify US military intervention in Taiwan.
On the other hand big countries muscling in on little countries to take their stuff is a hobby China would love to take up if they get the chance. However their domestic promotion of Russian propaganda is more about the fact that they hate the west than it is about them actually supporting Russia at all.
You forgot to mention, if the US didn’t back Europe’s stance on Ukraine (yes Europe’s stance), then China would have a green light to invade Taiwan, and most certainly do it.
And once that precedent is set of invading neighbors like that, neither Russia nor China would stop with just Ukraine and Taiwan.
Putin is doing this for popularity boost, as he has successfully employed several times before. The reasons he gives publicly are contradictory.
And in any case the treaty doesn't allow for invasion upon the government being perceived as illegitimate. This is an aggressive war, considered since the end of WW2 to be the supreme international crime.
The problem still so far is everything done to hold Putin accountable is viewed by Russians as the West vs Russia. This invasion is viewed not as aggressive war, but liberating Ukraine from Nazis. Exactly what Putin says domestically.
And yes, most of the rest of the world recognizes Taiwan as a sovereign country, except formally they use language consistent with One China to avoid a row with China
What have they discovered? As far as I know, Russia is still invading Ukraine, they haven't surrendered or retreated. They've discovered that having nukes means you can get away with whatever you like, and suffer little more than a slap on the wrist from the international community. Which is what the US also knows. And North Korea. And China, whenever it decides to roll over Taiwan. Nuclear weapons mean the rules don't apply to you.
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