It only needs to be released by one entity. Better to figure out what to do when it inevitably arrives, rather than trying (and failing) to avoid the eventuality.
If it's admitting the truth, then it should be at risk. Anything else is just delaying the inevitable and not planning adequately for its arrival in the meantime.
Given the contractions that exist not only in time, but across countries etc at any given moment, I simply propose that the only sensible solution is to allow individuals to evaluate their risks for themselves and take actions accordingly.
Your advice at the end will be seen as rational by some, over caution by others and for some still not enough.
It's naive to say that. We as individuals do, but you cannot control every individual in the world effectively. It's best to assume that it will happen and try to put safeguards in effect.
Yes, but those other groups aren't likely to be able to make such a plan. An AGI might be, though it's less certain that it'll feel a need to tell you.
So you're going to start worrying at the very last possible second, when it's far too late to do anything to stop it?
I completely agree, I don't think it will end up being a massive disaster in the long-run, precisely because people will be thinking about how to solve them. Quick dismissal of the potential problems that could result does not help us solve them.
I would agree with that analysis, but there is a minimum amount of progress we need to pull the curve away from catastrophic failure. The longer we wait, the more extreme the solution will need to be to pull on the curve, in my opinion. We shouldn’t let the current crisis go to waste.
Very similar to mitigating an asteroid impact. If you wait too long, no amount of force and course correction will save us.
That's like wishing for an avalanche to start. The problem with avalanches is that you do not know when they'll stop, potentially you're talking about thousands or even tens of thousands of people to die. If the end result is worth it or not can not be known at this point in time. Be careful what you wish for, you just might get it.
That's a bridge to cross when it's arrived at. As it is impossible to foresee every eventuality we can only deal with the problems at hand taking reasonable precautions in the process.
Half want to believe it isn't happening so therefore we should do nothing, and it feels like the other half believes that because it's inevitable we should just accept we're doomed and do nothing because we're doomed anyways.
We need to work to minimize the number of impacts like this one. We can't prevent this one, but we can prevent the next one.
That's my point. I don't think it will. So, let's be comfortable while we can. Also encourage people to try to do something about it but self-interest in short-term seems to prevail on this issue.
reply