And in case it's not obvious already, same goes for all the "Mars mission" targets by Musk and others (regarding, "SpaceX's 1st crewed Mars mission could launch as early as 2024, Elon Musk says").
Of course nothing will happen (even at 2026, 2029 dates, beyond this "as early as" date), those are PR announcements.
But if somebody said than in HN a few years ago at the height of the Musk-hype they'd be laughed off.
Musk said he'd be launching a mission to Mars every possible window starting 2024. Including manned missions. I believe he was going to send an experimental mission to Mars before that.
My point isn't that these companies don't get there, it's that they take much, much, much longer than estimated.
But as https://www.foxnews.com/science/musk-4-year-timeline-mars-mi... reports, in mid-October Elon Musk was claiming a fighting chance of launching a rocket there by 2024. With that being a type of rocket that he intends to be making in volume for uses near Earth.
Given his past over-optimism, I'd take good odds against him in 2024, but would take an even money bet that he makes it for the 2026 window. And given that he's already gearing up for mass production, he'll be able to send a bunch at the following 2029 window. If he misses 2026, shift those dates to 2029 and 2031 instead. (The windows come every 26 months, see http://clowder.net/hop/railroad/EMa.htm for a list of dates.)
Either way, SpaceX is apparently on track to launch a fleet of ships to Mars in a decade or so. With plans that the first launch will get there and explore, the second will be a bunch of ships that land and set up a base, and the third will hopefully be able to make a return trip using fuel produced on Mars. From there, he's aiming for serious colonization.
You may call him delusional. I certainly did in 2008 when he was trying to get a rocket program off the ground using his private fortune. But I would suggest not underestimating his ability to achieve on his vision (if not on the timeline that he pushes for).
When he said he'll put humans on Mars by 2020 that was even more interesting news, what happened, and why are we not learning? You may think that was a long shot, but it doesn't matter if it's a long or short shot with him, he speaks before he even tells his engineers about what they're supposedly to "ship soon".
The list of Twitter features he promised when he bought the company is long and he has zero successes so far.
I doubt people automatically assume that he's correct about being on Mars in 15 years, but if he's saying it, maybe he's got a reasonable plan/timeline for it. Musk is an engineer, and from what I've seen of him, he seems like less of a bullshitter than the average businessperson. Combined with his consistent delivery of results, I'd give him the benefit of the doubt.
As for launch windows, the energy required is at a minimum every 26 months, and there's a global min twice every ~17 years, the next two being in 12 and 14 years, so you'd have the easiest time then. [1] If they have a non-marginal plan, then maybe one of the relative minima would be sufficient.
What makes you say that action is absent? My impression is that SpaceX has actually been tackling a very aggressive timetable in general. I believe they're working on the Falcon Heavy and crew modules right now and they're proposing a launch for a Dragon capsule to Mars in 2018.
While that's all true, a Mars mission can't possibly funded by SpaceX itself, which means he's going to have to convince Congress or some international consortium that it's worth doing at probably $1T.
I don't see that happening. Space buffs are all excited over SpaceX (with good reason), but the general public has pretty much lost interest in manned space. Manned launches to the ISS don't even make the general news anymore despite NASA's rather formidable PR machine. The first manned Dragon launch will make the news, but only the first.
Politicians (particularly presidents) keep proposing Mars missions but always push funding decisions far enough into the future someone else is going to have to deal with paying for it. The public has caught on by now, so every new Mars mission proposal is greeted with a collective yawn.
It’s quite simple: they haven’t shown they’re actually serious about it. Musk has made claims about launching manned missions to Mars, but he’s made similar claims about self driving cars and hyperloops, all of which were bullshit. The only claims he’s made that have come to any fruition are the ones with an immediate profit, a profile that colonizing Mars doesn’t fit. On top of all this, they haven’t even made it look like they’re serious about tackling the challenges of sending people on a long haul trip through space.
I doubt anyone is actually going to “shoot prematurely for the Mars”. I expect what SpaceX is going to do, is once they get Starship up and running, and tick off some intermediate goals such as Artemis III and DearMoon, they’ll start launching demo Mars missions-no crew, but demonstrating some of the technologies a crewed mission will need-and NASA will probably pay for some of it. And that’s likely to take a lot longer than all their optimistic estimates suggest. But they’ll continue to dangle those timelines in front of everybody to create buzz which increases the odds of Congress/NASA paying for some of it. SpaceX might be a bit less risk-averse than NASA, but no way are they sending humans (even privately) to Mars unless they have reasonable odds of surviving, and there is a lot of further technology development and demonstration required to have reasonable confidence in that.
Chances SpaceX will get people to Mars in 2026, or ever for that matter, are so close to zero it’s a near-impossibility. Look up the Common Sense Skeptic videos on YouTube to see why the SpaceX Mars plan can’t work as described. (Hint: science)
I would expect Elon to push really hard to send something to Mars in 2022 aboard Starship, even if it's just an empty ship. They need to try navigating with precision and landing. It's a 2 year delay if they miss that window.
Musk held an event earlier this year where he outlined how SpaceX was going to get 1 million people to Mars by the 2050’s. That’s not really being skeptical. The plan he outlined is so ambitious that it is entirely unrealistic to the point of being almost straight fantasy.
The number of Starships needing to be built, the amount of launches necessary to send that many people, and other details don’t line up.
I am not skeptical that SpaceX could do a mission to Mars by the 2050’s, sending a small team to explore the planet and come back. I am skeptical of SpaceX being able to launch hundreds Starships loaded with a hundreds of people and everything they need for building a self sufficient colony, by 2026.
The plan Musk outlined has SpaceX sending people to Mars at the same time they send people to the Moon.
You don't need to interpret what Musk might mean. Musk publicly predicted people on Mars by 2025, then 2026, then 2029. He predicted a million people living on Mars by 2050. He has been specific, if not consistent.
I don't see how humanity will go backward if we don't colonize Mars. That's the kind of thing a cult leader says.
In the meantime Musk is squandering $44bn to buy Twitter just to show that he can.
Agreed, and I have no inside info at all -- they'll probably fail even, but it seems like there's a gulf between cautious optimism and whatever is going on here. As for the SpaceX comparison, if they do indeed send a mission to Mars in 2018, it will have been 16 years since the company was first founded with Elon's intention to go to Mars and 10 years after they first achieved orbit.. Hard things take time!
Of course nothing will happen (even at 2026, 2029 dates, beyond this "as early as" date), those are PR announcements.
But if somebody said than in HN a few years ago at the height of the Musk-hype they'd be laughed off.
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