I think the promising thing is that as we get more batteries on the grid, it will enable more renewables penetration as a percentage of the grid as a whole
I'm thinking of the solar panels and batteries that would be needed and the environmental costs tied to creating them. They may be better allocated to replacing other sources of energy consumption in the near term.
Given that you only need to store energy for about a day[0] and that the batteries last at least three years when you use them like this, world battery production is already 1% of the storage requirements for worldwide 100% renewable.
One forecast I’ve seen estimates that battery production will go up by a factor of four by by 2028.
[0] longer periods with no wind and no sun are dealt with more cost-efficiently with long distance power lines than with storage.
Wind + solar + hydro can go well past 50% without any batteries. Batteries are getting ever less expensive and production just keeps ramping up even faster.
We really don’t need any major breakthroughs beyond economies of scale to see sub 7c/kWh rates 24/7/365. People are already deploying 50% battery backed solar because it’s cost competitive vs both base load and peaking power.
It's a coping mechanism. They want to believe solar and wind will solve all the problems because it is comforting. Of course, it also totally ignores how renewables are enabled by peaker plants burning natural gas. And that renewables generate less electricity as a percentage of total usage now than in the 1950s. But somehow batteries are going to solve that problem. Of course, they haven't calculated how large the battery would need to be for that scenario to work out either.
You still need batteries to support the solar and wind systems. If making the grid responsive to total load increases efficiency then hell, let’s do both
That's an absurd argument. And as long as we're using solar and wind, we'll need backup from coal, gas and nuclear for when the sun isn't shining and the wind isn't blowing. If you think increasing battery capacity will solve that, read up on the supply chain of lithium.
Focusing on batteries is thinking too long-term IMO. If you have 50% renewables or less in the grid, you basically don't need batteries yet, and our deadline isn't time here but greenhouse gases emitted - getting to 50% renewables will give us more time to tackle the rest of our emissions. I expect nuclear to easily beat solar/wind+batteries for the last 10% of the grid, but frankly the last 10% of the grid almost doesn't matter - if we've reduce our emissions by 90%, then we have 10x the time to tackle the rest.
Of course, I've been wildly conflating electricity with all emissions, but I think the low-hanging fruit argument still applies.
That's far too optimistic about storage. For small off-grid systems, you need ~5 days of battery capacity to ride out lack of wind/sun. On a large scale you'll need less because you can move power from place to place.
But still. Sun is down half the day and wind speeds can be low in areas hundreds of miles wide. Its obvious they will need at least a day of battery capacity, probably more. Not hours.
Solar and wind are great. Many areas in the US have hours long periods during the day where power is 100% renewable. But batteries are way too expensive and I don't like when politicians make laws based on predictions 15+ years in the future.
People have been under-predicting what solar and batteries can do for decades... just look at the actual cost and production curves vs predictions. Also, don't forget wind and other storage.
Batteries haven't gotten cheap; unless we get some crazy breakthrough total wind and solar power production will probably peak within the next 20 years.
Note that if batteries stayed at their current level of development forever, wind and solar would still be the best choice to build out at large scales today.
It is unlikely that they wont progress dramatically, but even in that extreme case there's no need or reason to wait.
He's completely ignoring the effects on the grid, which will be huge. Batteries are also a complement to wind, for example. Here's one piece discussing that dynamic; there are many others at e.g. Greentechmedia.com.
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