> The virus is mutating but it is also losing its lethal nature.
In one of the first articles I read on covid, in Feb 2020, the experts stated that they expected this to become endemic, either like the other common cold coronaviruses, or something a bit worse like the flu [0]:
> I think there is a reasonable probability that this becomes the fifth community-acquired coronavirus... settling down to something like the other four coronaviruses.
> What we may be seeing “is the emergence of a new coronavirus … that could very well become another seasonal pathogen that causes pneumonia,” said infectious disease expert Michael Osterholm of the University of Minnesota. It would be “more than a cold” and less than SARS: “The only other pathogen I can compare it to is seasonal influenza.”
This has probably happened before. The Russian Flu epidemic of 1889-1890. It looks like it was a coronavirus that jumped from cattle to people. That pandemic was one of the deadliest of that century. Now that same virus is one of our common cold bugs [1].
>Or it could be like the flu, and mutate / continue indefinitely.
I gather that is unlikely, coronaviruses don't mutate like the flu.
In fact, according to experts, it is most likely that this coronavirus will decrease in severity over time and become endemic like the other several coronaviruses that are responsible for 15% of common colds. Or, alternatively, occasionally returning like a bad flu year. https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-cor...
I remember reading in other places this may have happened before, something about a really bad flu year in the 1870's that may have been another coronavirus introducing itself to humanity.
The idea is that it will decrease in severity over time. It may already be doing so. In early March they were tracking a dozen mutations already.
From the linked article [0], quoting a number of infectious disease experts, coronavirus researchers, epidemiologist, etc:
>OC43 and 229E are more prevalent than other endemic human coronaviruses, especially in children and the elderly. Together, the four are responsible for an estimated one-quarter of all colds. “For the most part they cause common-cold-type symptoms,” said Richard Webby, an influenza expert at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital. “Maybe that is the most likely end scenario if this thing becomes entrenched.”
>Odds: Moderate. “I think there is a reasonable probability that this becomes the fifth community-acquired coronavirus,” Adalja said, something he expanded on in his blog. Webby agreed: “I have a little bit of hope that, OK, we’ll put up with a couple of years of heightened [2019-nCoV] activity before settling down to something like the other four coronaviruses.”
>Odds: Pretty good. What we may be seeing “is the emergence of a new coronavirus … that could very well become another seasonal pathogen that causes pneumonia,” said infectious disease expert Michael Osterholm of the University of Minnesota. It would be “more than a cold” and less than SARS: “The only other pathogen I can compare it to is seasonal influenza.”
(The article had a lot of other interesting and relevant information.)
You can see where it compares infections to proportion of strain that they only spiked when "L" disappeared and one or more of the "G" ones became dominant. There's only 7 countries listed here, but I think I remember a different article that had more, and the pattern was pretty consistent.
There is plenty of evidence to support the idea that as it becomes endemic, it will evolve toward yet-another-cold. There is no evidence in all of history for an endemic coronavirus that is not yet-another-cold.
You said "the survival of the species" was at stake. Are you telling me that you stand by that comment? Do you really think this coronavirus might have killed off our species?
There is zero science supporting this. In fact, to the contrary, experts from the beginning expected this to peter out on its own [0]:
> 2019-nCoV joins the four coronaviruses now circulating in people. “I can imagine a scenario where this becomes a fifth endemic human coronavirus,” ... “We don’t pay much attention to them because they’re so mundane”
> Odds: Moderate. “I think there is a reasonable probability that this becomes the fifth community-acquired coronavirus,” Adalja said, something he expanded on in his blog. Webby agreed: “I have a little bit of hope that, OK, we’ll put up with a couple of years of heightened [2019-nCoV] activity before settling down to something like the other four coronaviruses.”
> Odds: Pretty good. What we may be seeing “is the emergence of a new coronavirus … that could very well become another seasonal pathogen that causes pneumonia,”
Your statement about "survival of the species" seems outlandish, according the the science I read. Your above reply "things could have been worse" is not an adequate defensse of such an alarmist statement.
Do you have any references supporting your position? oit appears so far that you do not.
You should keep in mind that not everyone shares your paranoia and want to get on with as much of their lives as possible. We live in democracies and other people will rightfully object to you imposing your views on all of them without better justification.
His sentiment is correct. The source for what I’m saying is a veteran virologist with 40 years of experience dealing with these exact kinds of things. A two hour interview was linked from a previous HN thread.
Despite what ceejayoz might try to tell you, corona viruses do not mutate in the way that influenza does. Influenza mutates in a way that evades the immune system but retains other qualities. This is why new vaccines for the flu are always being developed. Despite the fact that corona virus family viruses are responsible for a very small amount of “common cold,” they do not exhibit this behavior. They do mutate though, which is why we are seeing two “versions” of covid-19. The ultimate meaning of all this is that once a population gains collective immunity, the virus will basically disappear. In layman's terms, the virus will go away probably between 3 to 6 months from now in the United States. If anyone tries to refute this, post actual evidence or expert testimony showing that covid-19 mutates in a similar way to influenza.
Like Elon musk points out, only those with immune system problems are at risk. This includes some people of advanced age, some people with diabetes and various other people.
The virus appears to kill people like many other similar illnesses: if the infection spreads to deeply within the lungs, gas transfer is interrupted and secondary bacterial infection sets in, commonly known as pneumonia. The treatment for which is antibiotics and an oxygen line. This is why you see Italy asking specifically for more oxygen equipment, in my non expert opinion. Both these treatments are widely available and do not require special skill to acquire or administer. Patients who do not benefit from these would require mechanical ventilation.
The fatality rate is massively skewed toward severity because of the lack of testing. If all the benign cases were taken into account, the facility rate would be much smaller although still high enough to take seriously.
Remote administration of oxygen and antibiotics, washing hands, and light self-quarantine, all very easy to do, will blunt the impact on hospitals significantly.
Overall, the threat that this virus poses to most people and society in general has been overblown by the for-profit media.
I would like to apologize for being so impolite in addressing this topic previously.
Both of these viruses do exactly that. They're among the many that give us colds.
"Coronaviruses have a worldwide distribution, causing 10–15% of common cold cases. Infections show a seasonal pattern with most cases occurring in the winter months."
Corona viruses are a family of viruses that extends far beyond the particular virus responsible for the current pandemic/epidemic.
Corona viruses are the #2 family responsible for the common (viral) cold, behind rhinoviruses (In the ballpark of 10-20% and 50-60% respectively, iirc, but definitely
rank #2 & #1).
So there is a great deal of historical knowledge about the corona family of viruses, just not necessarily specific to this corona virus and it's variants.
In the context of looking for seasonal patterns in respiratory viruses, it's the first place you'd look in trying to find common traits.
This is our 5th endemic coronavirus. They tends to mutate into less lethal more viral over time. Check out the newest varient out of South Africa which looks promising for a healthy future.
> Studies of common-cold coronaviruses, sampled across multiple seasons, have identified some signs of evolution in response to immunity. But the pace of change is slow, says Volker Thiel, an RNA virologist at the Institute of Virology and Immunology in Bern. “These strains remain constant, more or less.”
So there seems to be a pretty good chance that this won’t really be an issue.
I'd bet my own health that you're pretty darn close (but I'm still going to avoid visiting old folks for a while). From the conclusion:
> Presently, there are four, endemic, coronavirus strains currently circulating in human populations (229E, HKU1, NL63, OC43). If the novel coronavirus follows the pattern of 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza, it will also spread globally and become a fifth endemic coronavirus within the human population.
This thing is extremely contagious, it's probably already everywhere, and there's a good chance it will be circulating indefinitely. Hopefully folks will just get tired of the panic after a while. And if we're lucky, this might lead to more awareness about the devastation that respiratory illnesses cause, especially to old folks, every year across the world.
If you want to yell at me because I'm not panicking enough, save your breath. I'm just as pissed at you for spreading a terrible mind-virus, so call it even if you must.
It's not obvious general knowledge; while as a class coronaviruses don't usually have extremely long-term immunity, there's considerable variability and how durable the immunity typically produced for this coronavirus is has been a question of much interest.
> Flu virii mutate every two weeks anyway,
It's not even worth discussing of that's true, since flu viruses (Orthomyxoviridae) are a different family from coronaviruses (coronaviradae, and specifically subfamily orthocoronavirinae).
> and the next saison flu is always something different.
COVID-19 isn't a seasonal flu (or any other kind of flu), and what varies from flu season to season is the mix of strains, it's quite possible for individual strains to be in that mix for more than one season.
> Next saison could be a H1N1 which is a real danger (the lower the numbers the higher the mortality rates),
The danger is more than just a factor of mortality rate, which is why the current COVID-19 pandemic is a much bigger deal than, say, any historic Ebola outbreak, despite the much lower fatality rate (whether case or infection).
New coronavirus pandemics like this aren’t novel. It’s thought many of the boring common cold coronaviruses we don’t think much of started as an outbreak sometime in the past crossing animal-human boundaries
One common cold coronavirus that circulates around had a common ancestor in 1890. Suspiciously timed with the Russian “Flu” pandemic of 1890-1891[1]
(Not that we can just discount the Wuhan lab theory, but a naturally occurring pandemic like this not that weird historically)
In one of the first articles I read on covid, in Feb 2020, the experts stated that they expected this to become endemic, either like the other common cold coronaviruses, or something a bit worse like the flu [0]:
> I think there is a reasonable probability that this becomes the fifth community-acquired coronavirus... settling down to something like the other four coronaviruses.
> What we may be seeing “is the emergence of a new coronavirus … that could very well become another seasonal pathogen that causes pneumonia,” said infectious disease expert Michael Osterholm of the University of Minnesota. It would be “more than a cold” and less than SARS: “The only other pathogen I can compare it to is seasonal influenza.”
This has probably happened before. The Russian Flu epidemic of 1889-1890. It looks like it was a coronavirus that jumped from cattle to people. That pandemic was one of the deadliest of that century. Now that same virus is one of our common cold bugs [1].
[0] https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-cor...
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_coronavirus_OC43
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