On the other hand, put enough incremental improvements together and you've got a revolution. Seen that way, even OpenAI got where it is by standing on the shoulders of giants.
It's not just raw technology. It's a vision for what the product should be, what overall strategy to take, how to fund it, how to introduce it to the world, how to scale it, what order to do things in, what approach to take with 3rd party developers, when things are good enough to launch, who to hire, who to promote, etc. There are a million little decisions that go into a runaway success like this. And a million opportunities to make the slightly sub-optimal or wrong decision. And it doesn't take many of those to kill everything that made the place special, and that's actually my new base case for OpenAI-- that's the base case for any company/organization. The default state is chaos and entropy, and it's a miracle when you can escape that fate for even a few years of hypergrowth.
OpenAI wins by innovating faster than everyone because a lot of these models inner workings are known and can be trained to meet ChatGPTs metrics. so all they have to do is hire the best and move faster, as long as they have on par or better, people won’t be switching
I'm optimistic partly because OpenAI still releases a lot of mistakes despite knowing full well what AI can do. They're rapidly hiring, they basically have a bottomless budget, and yet there's third parties doing what they don't have the manpower to do.
I think the answer to the problem of the OpenAI releases being out of our control and not necessarily consistent is to work on improving the open models.
I believe the big thing missing from open models is the advanced architecture and large amounts of human reinforcement. So it's actually not easy to replicate that
with a volunteer effort. But I think the efforts of some great people working hard are gradually moving the open efforts forward.
Having said all that, it's funny how quickly people become entitled, demanding and critical towards this one company that provides a service with the ability to think for you and is smarter than any other such system in existence.
OpenAI was ment to be "open" and develope AI for good. OpenAi became everything it said was wrong. Open source models ran locally are the answer but what is the question?
Change is coming quickly. There will be users and there will losers. Hopefully, we can finially get productivity into the information systems.
I believe it will get better and more efficient as we go. On a side note, OpenAI seems to release products before they are ready and they evolve as they go.
Change is inevitable in the AI space, and the changes come in fits and starts. In a decade OpenAI too may become a hapless fiefdom lorded over by the previous generation's AI talent.
This line of thinking only works if it's impossible to imagine a world where OpenAI isn't the leader. In 2 years if the non OpenAI models are better then it will serve us much better to allow these tools to work with other models as well.
my guess is openai spent the most human hours fine tuning the model, and other companies are running into problems and trying to deal with them whereas openai already learned those lessons a long time ago
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