You know what else causes social unrest? Starvation induced by crop failure. We’re already seeing the first signs with recent extreme weather and the megadrought. Wait just a short few years until it really gets moving.
Unfortunately it’s not hard to imagine that these pressures are going to cause a huge amount of political instability and dramatically increase the odds of catastrophic conflict though.
They're saying there will be food shortages this year. Combined with mass immigration from failed states (so already bringing violence + spreading what little we have even thinner) civil unrest is certain.
Realistically? 2011. As get global instability every time food prices spike from drought and commodities price spikes. That time it kicked off the Arab spring & Syrian civil war. Look at immigration into Europe across the Med. from North Africa.
Global food prices are spiking now and we're also seeing protests around the globe. The quote is "Society sits 2 meals and 24 hours from anarchy." So any place there's drought or crop failure we'll see a lot of choas.
A spike in food prices. We can probably weather it OK in the developed world, but last time something like this happened it helped kick off the Arab Spring. Abrupt, large changes in quality of life tend to spark revolutions. They usually get people killed, and often don't result in a more-liberal government taking power.
We aren't worried about economic growth. We are worried about livelihoods. The type of economic devastation that leaves people unable to put food on the table. The civil unrest won't be pretty.
Political troubles come from food and energy costs going to high or supply being disrupted.
That will almost always be long the weather in that specific area really shocks everyone, because the food and energy come from a different place where there was a weather shock.
I'm more afraid what changes in agricultural zones will do to political stability. If all agriculture happens in Canada in Siberia, and the rest of the world becomes unable to feed itself, I think that could cause wars.
Modern history suggests there will be riots. See: Arab Spring, Mexican Tortilla Riots, the current and ongoing riots in Venezuela, etc. Since 2007, some dozen or more countries have suffered from riots caused by famine and rising food prices.
People should be very worried about this. Some parts of the world are already unstable, imagine what happens when food supplies dramatically contract or areas are hit with multiple weather disasters. There is a lot of strain and turmoil over migrations as is (see Syria), imagine what that looks like when hundreds of millions of people are displaced.
What happens when millions of hungry and displaced people try to move across borders to countries that are their outright enemies? Or if an already oppressed ethnic group is hit with a water crisis? One doesn't need to look far into history to see that it could lead to mass murder
This is still the most likely way World War III could break out in the next two years. Economic shock leads to food shortages. Food shortages lead to food riots. Riots lead to unrest. Unrest leads to war.
I believe a civil war might be a real risk. Or big recession, both which might lead to unrest.. Never know what is the next political system when people are actually starving.
This will happen. It's actually already happening in developing countries.
The disruption of food supplies has been causing annual riots all over the world. The US has remained insulated from these effects by virtue of being relatively rich and relying on over-priced, highly processed foods that have enough margin to buffer against price shocks. But this is clearly an untenable situation.
Shit goes south really fast when people can't afford to eat. And the difference between Mexican or Middle Eastern food riots and American ones is that Americans will come with lots of guns.
No one knows what will happen but countries that can't build working institutions, get rid of corruption and start working for the people will have a very difficult time. This is true everywhere basically but droughts will make it more pronounced.
Riots not catastrophe. Big difference. A catastrophic event would be something like world-wide flooding.
I suppose if the food system collapsed completely (and that is possible considering the way we grow most of our food (monoculture) - but very unlikely) that would be catastrophic. It would have to happen not just in one area, though. To really effect us all.
In that case grab your gun. And protect your own garden.
I think this study is predicting food riots in certain areas. Highly possible.
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