MANPADS means Man-Portable Air Defense System. Javelin is an anti-tank weapon, not an air defense weapon.
And the main advantage for Javelin over an FPV drone is that a Javelin is fire-and-forget; you don’t need to steer the missile yourself. It will attack the weaker top armor automatically.
Conventional RPG warheads still cost money, a lot of money if you want them to reliably explode.
Javelin has a warhead capacity of 9Kg, for the same bang so to speak ( armor penetration) you would need drones that can hoist 9Kg, those don't retail at anywhere near $1,000.
That doesn't mean that cheap drones are not effective means of weapons delivery, they are as this war is showing. They are akin to side arms, when penetration is not a factor they are useful, but they are hardly a replacement for heavy guided munitions like Javelin.
Man Pads are by no means perfect, the current gen is 30 years old, they could be made much smarter and lot cheaper than $250,000, however just $1000 drone is not going to replace them yet.
One thing I’ve been thinking about re: Javelin (and MANPADS)—would it be better to be able to fire them remotely? ie let soldiers put a set of launch tubes in a bush or behind a rock, then use the targeting system from a separate location. That way, the solders’ location isn’t revealed by firing the missile. Better yet if you can strap the tubes to a robot dog.
Another idea: drone AWACS. I mean, a drone with radar to detect other drones (and other aircraft).
Correct FPV drones are essentially useless against aircraft. I dont think anyone is using conventional RPG warheads or FPV drones against aircraft.
> "Javelin has a warhead capacity of 9Kg, for the same bang so to speak ( armor penetration) you would need drones that can hoist 9Kg"
This is false because a Javelin warhead contains propellant and guidance as well as the payload. In reality, a shaped charge capable of penetrating 200mm of steel weighs about 1 kilogram. Which is well within the capabilities of many drones under and around the 1000$ price range.
Many tanks and IFVs have been taken out on both sides by quadcopters carrying shaped charges. Plenty of penetration can be achieved by relatively lightweight shaped charges.
I think MANPADs somewhat negate traditional Wild Weasel tactics.
Wild Weasel worked because you could use a jet as bait to find the position of a SAM site. That worked fine when a SAM site was multiple trailers, and took a day to move.
With MANPADs, you don't have a fixed base, and if you discover where one is (because it shot at you), that information isn't useful, because by the time you know where it is, it isn't a SAM site anymore.
I suspect that when fighting wars against people that aren't insurgents, we end up being much better off with remote piloting, and relatively cheap guided munitions for air support. I.E. its a strategic win to get your $3k drones shot down by $50k MANPADs.
Highly maneuverable portable drones are going to be a key part of urban conflict in the next century of the ongoing war in the middle east, just as the RPG and IED have been.
FPV is a system for a human operator to guide it. If it doesn’t have a human operator but it does have an autonomous system to guide it to the target, that’s just a guided missile.
What’s the difference between a drone and a guided missile? Is it because the drone can be shot down easily that we know it couldn’t possibly be threatening us? That’s fine until a drone drops 50g of suspicious powder across the deck.
Why use drones in this missle defense system your describing? Drones are incredibly slow and missiles are INCREDIBLY fast. If you have the trajectory of the missile enough to put some sort of drone or hard object on it, why not just shoot it. That's what the phalanx missile defense system does.
the one distinguishing difference is loitering capability of a drone.
most missiles are not capable of loitering today. But i guess if missiles of tomorrow start getting such capabilities, then the line between a drone and a missile might blur even more.
We had man-portable ATGMs for decades, they didn't "lower the value of a tank".
Less than 10% is not good when you consider how much does it cost in practice. Drone teams are often 2 pilots + technician + explosives technician (an incredibly risky job btw, those bastardised RPG warheads are live and sensitive) + infantry cover. At least double that if you want to strike beyond line of sight and need a retransmitter drone. Those teams can only move at night and on foot because they are actively hunted by the other side. They can only have one or two drones simultaneously in the air at best, and the drones need to get to their targets first without giving away the launch point. All of that for less than 10% success rate is not "incredibly effective".
Now compare to fire-and-forget Javelins that are way more lethal and are just something added to a normal infantry platoon.
Modern guided missiles are not essentially different that these drones. I guess the main difference is that these drones are intended to be cheap and disposable, while having a much shorter range.
And the main advantage for Javelin over an FPV drone is that a Javelin is fire-and-forget; you don’t need to steer the missile yourself. It will attack the weaker top armor automatically.
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