Well, a power struggle would be quite the thing to watch. At least for me. Kinda like what happened when Stalin died. (My personal forecast excludes return to democracy; it includes something similar to what happened after Stalin died).
I am, also, very much imagining a situation like in the movie "Elysium" being both probable and probably inevitable; the more interesting question is will there be a revolution after?
You assume 40% of the population won't create a lot of unrest when the 60% come into power and cut them out of having a say in how their lives are run. Which, I guess might happen, but it seems unlikely, especially given the acrimonious history that just keeps getting deeper and deeper.
The surface will probably be quiet for a bit, while the internal political machine of the DPRK roils. There are certainly a lot of possibilities (both good or bad) that can happen depending on who actually takes over control. Even if the regime collapsed non-violently, the ensuing chaotic human crisis would still be immense. My belief is that it will continue largely unchanged for the short to mid term.
But that'll depend on things going smoothly and non-evil, non-dictators winning in the end. It'd be horrific if evil and malicious entities won and decided they just wanted to fuck with everyone.
I think the world would collectively shit its pants. The world's largest economy and military suddenly splintering while in control of several thousand nuclear weapons? It would seem like Armageddon.
Outside of a rogue president that convinces the military to act in illegal activity or a true government overthrow it won't happen.
No running or existing government in the USA will pull the plug because they know that would end their career. All their fundraising gone. Wall Street RIP. Riots all over the place.
I'm not sure how likely it is to when the incumbent empire and the aspiring one are both armed to the tits, neither of which will give up on their claim or their military. Even without confrontation they'll both keep force projecting. I think we just gotta hope there's mutual resistance to any physical escalation, either direct or by proxy, and that the competition remains economical and technological. Turns out even tying the economies to the hip is not an insurance against fighting when those ties turn into weapons in an escalation.
Just consider that anyone who cares deeply about this problem must organize with like minded people and wield power against the holdouts. Even if what you stated above sounds like "insanity", the only question is...will it exist?
Will there be those that pursue power and self interest in opposition to long term policy of "less" and "weakness", even if we all were to agree that long term it's mutually assured destruction (I'm not saying I agree with that though..). Then what?
It would have to die off before it could arise again. Fortunately with a Hillary Clinton administration looming, we may get to see that scenario play out.
I betting more short term but fewer long term. The immediate bloodbaths would be in America's client states that Russia and China move in on, but some of those would probably manage independence. Long term, one less bully dropping bombs on children should result in fewer deaths. The power vacuum is real, but I don't think it be entirely filled with other international bullies. A collapse of the military would probably result in some pretty dope weapon systems switching hands, as it did during the collapse of the Soviet Union. This would cause bloodshed, sure, but it also means some of those prior client states might have a better shot at independence than one might first imagine. I'll also point out that those power vacuum dynamics exhibit themselves at multiple levels of supervenience, and the US is often responsible for their disruption on smaller scales.
I honestly don't think this is going to be politically solvable without violence. If it comes down to civil war the evil billionaires will have more money for weapons. My prediction for the next couple centuries is an increasingly ruthless dictatorship controlled by a billionaire class trying to prevent revolt while civilization slowly collapses.
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