Poland will not get spare parts for its F-35 in a conflict under Trump, or more likely be blackmailed for higher prices or other concessions. Or the software will stop working and they need to pay to make it work again. Trump would love that.
The only way for Poland to be safe is having military production in its own country. Because it's easier if everyone has the same weapons, I it should join Airbus and KMW+NEXTER and get production facilities on it's own land.
As seen with AstraZeneca you need physical control to be safe.
Germany will buy its F-35s. Poland will start taking delivery of its HIMARS from the US starting next year and will continue to order US hardware. As part of the deals that Poland and Germany signed, they will be ramping up local production to support the systems they are buying.
One thing you're missing in lots of your predictions is that Ukraine had no US military presence. Poland does. There's 10k US troops in Poland right now. There's zero chance other European countries will be closing US military bases with the looming threat from Russia.
Poland got F'ed by US multiple times in the past when it came to military contracts https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offset_agreement (/1) This way conditions are all in the open and there is no wiggle room for Blinken to "yes we said we would provide replacement planes, but it was just a preliminary idea blabla" down the road. Poland is next on the Putin list after Ukraine, right there with Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
/1 When buying 48 F-16 in 2002 Lockheed Martin declared almost $10B cross military gear imports and technology transfers, then it melted down to $6B with minimal militry gear imports and zero technology transfer, and finally ended up with US taking over mayor Polish military aviation companies - PZL Rzeszow (parts) went to UTC/Pratt&Whitney, PZL Mielec (heli/light transport planes) again to UTC/Sikorski then Lockheed Martin with Poland being charged extra for service parts coming out of those factories.
Only a win-win for Poland if they actually receive the F16s and parts and training free of charge from the US. AND if there's no blow-back from Russia (as has been promised).
Poland and the US are both NATO. Somehow sending them from Poland is better? And we’re going to let concerns about how Russia would perceive the transfer dictate what we do?
We’ve already sent a bunch of weapons into Ukraine. These jets are just another entry in that long list.
This is how I see it too. It'll be obvious to anyone where those aircraft have come from. Poland isn't going to deflect responsibility this way.
Poland can't afford to donate it's air power so readily, but the USA allows them to with this move. It will also shift their military to be more on spec with other NATO countries.
I don't think these will ever make it to Ukraine. However if the US promised Poland US jets as a replacement this may have been a nice quick way to get some new expensive hardware for free.
You're missing the point, it was never a logistical issue. Poland wanted to avoid giving the migs directly so they proposed that they would transfer the ownership to the US for the US to transfer to Ukraine. Even better if you mix all the planes from other NATO countries to lower the risk for any one particular country. The planes can then go to Ukraine from the US removing Poland from the deal.
This is already happening. Poland & South Korea entered into a significant deal last year. SK is working with Poland to build SK mil hardware in Poland, which iirc, is a first for them. There are speculations that this is SK breaking into the EU market for tanks & spg.
Drones are reshaping conventional war at unprecedented speeds. Many things need to be rethought. Big ticket items and air defense are notable examples.
Porcupine defense is likely the best strategy for deterrence. Taiwan and her allies should take note of what Ukraine has accomplished in the Black Sea.
Yes, exactly, this is very different than directly sending such weapons to Ukraine. It also has to be seen from the Polish view, free upgrade to US tanks. They also tried it with their aircraft hoping for US fighter jets in return.
Poland also bought a bunch of tanks from South Korea. They plan to use different tanks in different areas of the country. Possibly also a production license so they can build them (SK tanks) in country. The Abrams is known for requiring more maintenance and they are best suited to the south of Ukraine. Not an easy transfer to Poland for repairs. There are also open questions about the weight capacity for Ukraine bridges for various tanks (including the leopard).
The problem is way, way more complex than you think it is.
Logistics were never the issue. US was pressurising Poland and other countries for at least a week to transfer the planes to Ukraine. Poland doesn't want to do by itself for obvious reasons so they've proposed for the US to take ownership and transfer the migs themselves and provide compensation down the line.
Poland just seems to have gotten a very good deal. Maybe South Korea is just willing to sell at a loss with an eye towards future sales.
According to wikipedia [1],[2], a K2 tank costs about $8.5 MM while a K9 self-propelled gun costs about $2.8 MM (with the mention that this is the price for the ROK military). At 980 tanks and 672 guns, that's a bit more than $10 BN. The additonal 48 FA-50 fighter planes would be worth about $1.5 BN more according to [3]. The article mentions a total price of $5.8 BN. But it could be as high as $15 BN, "if all the options are exercised in the coming years". It sounds to me that the $15 BN figure includes the price of spare parts, munitions, and other post-sale costs associated with military hardware purchases.
If they did get indeed the said tanks, guns and fighter jets for $5.8 BN instead of $12 BN, then how can the US compete? Last year (2021) Poland announced [4] they will acquire 250 M1 Abrams tanks from the US. Now they are getting 4 times as many tanks, and a huge number of very respectable long range artillery pieces, and a few squadrons worth of fighter jets, for less money. This is mind blowing.
The only way for Poland to be safe is having military production in its own country. Because it's easier if everyone has the same weapons, I it should join Airbus and KMW+NEXTER and get production facilities on it's own land.
As seen with AstraZeneca you need physical control to be safe.
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