Biden did kind of the same. A few years ago he promised russia "devastating consequences if Navalny dies in prison". So Navalny did die in prison. What did Biden do? Right.
What use is Navalny being alive to Putin?
I’m only casually familiar with the situation, but my ignorance analysis is that Putin’s underlying message is “don’t F with me”. Navalny alive and in prison or dead that message seems to ring clear. Just curious.
A historian and renowned Russia expert in my country (Estonia) commented that this was probably bad timing for Putin. Now, as a martyr, Navalnyi is much more of a disturbance to Putin's regimen than he would have been as an isolated opposition leader serving a 19-year prison sentence, which rendered him not a direct threat to Putin. Like the expert put it: as a political prisoner, Navalnyi was already simply forgotten by many. [1]
Somehow this got me flipping through a book by Anna Politkovskaya, Russian journalist extraordinaire who covered the Second Chechen War and was shot dead in Moscow in 2006, on the birthday of Putin. [2]
I want to think that the age of massive online information does make at least a slight difference as to how much of the reasons behind events like these see the light of day eventually. Rest in peace, Alexei Navalnyi.
1: https://news.err.ee/1609255851/historian-navalny-s-death-wil... (Interestingly, the paragraph on Navalnyi being more of a disturbance now, after being declared dead, was not included in the English version of this news story. This is quite surprising, since ERR is actually a very well balanced source of news. All in all, that story includes interesting takes on Navalny as a politician, too, by another highly respeced Russia expert from Estonia.)
Navalny was far from a saint, but his death is still a Kremlin job by any measure, and I suspect will only accelerate Putin's decline, as the state of Russian affairs continues to degrade.
> I'm not sure but I'd expect him to return all the annexed territories if he got in power
We'll never know, but I "feel" like that would have damaged him politically had he been in power in Russia and therefore doubt he would have. But again, we'll never know. And it's purely theoretical, even if he wasn't dead, there is no scenario that I can realistically think where Putin would have allowed Navalny to replace him, absent the FSB/oligarchs assassinating Putin. But even there, I suspect Navalny would still have been murdered and we'd still just get "Putin-lite"
It says it in the article. Navalny was making statements condemning the Crimea annexation and giving advice on how best to apply economic sanction to the Kremlin-elite surrounding Putin.
After the US followed his advice Navalny even tweeted that he was packing his bags for jail because "someone was going to have to pay for [those sanctions]".
Of course not. Instead he will suffer there approximately the same as other inmates, maybe a more, and will be excluded from coordinating anti-putin politicians in the rigged elections. Since russian political field is thoroughly cleaned up now, and Navalny was the only anti-putin figure left, this will achieve what kremlin wants - some noticeable decline in the anti-putin voting this year.
PS: I'm writing anti-putin because it is not clear that Navalny is actually going against the soviet system in general. For example he supported Crimea invasion, he supported Georgia invasion in 2008, he voluntarily invited russian terrorist Girkin a few years ago for the interview, and during that interview said that it is not a war crime to kill Ukrainian soldiers.
I don't think you understand how this works. Navalny's family physical location made zero difference here. As evidenced by numerous murders conducted abroad by FSB and GRU. No place is safe when Putin wants you dead.
As far as I know this is kind of the strategy of Russian propaganda. I would not be surprised if killing Navalny was done purposely shortly after the Tucker interview.
For a MAGA follower (if they ever hear about it and even know who Navalny is) such combinations induce a cognitive dissonance, which translates either into dispair or into open support of Putin after he killed his major critic, either way it would be a win. And the other side of US politics is in dispair wittnessing how the MAGA crowd handles this, which (from Putins point of view) hopefully makes people stresses enough about politics that they just don't want to hear it anymore.
This idea of confusion and despair is how he managed to get the Russians to stay so apolitical after a short optimistic phase in the 90s. Better not think about it — this is the message.
Navalny is detested by Russians. He has successfully been painted as everything evil: hopelessly corrupt, western stooge, nazi. I don't have any idea how much of that is true, probably mostly fabricated or exaggerated, but Putin understanders will confirm my statement and that it is actually true for all of these things.
Incredibly sad. Navalny had balls of steel to stand up to a murderous dictator like he did. It feels like it was all for nought. Putin kills another opposition figure and nobody bats an eye.
> Even Navalny came back to face the music, and he wasnt even president (yet?)
The dude has a a net positivity of -30% rating ... and is a designated terrorist.
> According to polls conducted by the Levada Center in September 2020, 20% of Russians approve Navalny's activities, 50% disapprove, and 18% had never heard of him. Out of those who were able to recognize Navalny, 10% said that they have "respect" for him, 8% have sympathy and 15% "could not say anything bad" about him. 31% are "neutral" towards him, 14% "could not say anything good" about him and 10% dislike him.
You could argue Russia is corrupt, but it equally seems likely the west is propping this guy up because he's an "asset". Navalny isn't anywhere close to electable. He's convicted of multiple crimes, in solitary for trying to start / organize a prisoners union (something the west also pushes back against) and isn't generally liked in Russia. Especially, when comparing to someone like Putin who has a +50% approval rating
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